NFL: Why the Colts should trade Andrew Luck

Trading Andrew Luck sounds crazy, doesn’t it? Pro-Bowl quarterback, teams best player (second best player in franchise history behind some guy named Peyton Manning), one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the Colts have made the play-offs three out of four years that Luck has started. So why trade this guy? it’s not like franchise quarterbacks grow on trees. The Bronco’s, Eagles and Vikings are undefeated with Wayne Seiman ,Carson Wentz, and Sam Bradford (yes Bradford was a overall number one pick but this is his third NFL team in three seasons, definition of a journeymen) as their starting quarterbacks the Cowboys, Rams and Patriots are three and one with Dak Prescott,Case Keanam playing quarterback, and either Jimmy Garapogo or Jacoby Brisset at quarterback for the Patriots. Point being that teams can win without “franchise” quarterbacks as long as the rest of the team preforms well. Understandably that is a big if, but what is a team with a “franchise” quarterback and no defense? ask the Saints, Colts Chargers, Lions and Buccaneers who are all sitting 1-3 with franchise quarterbacks and iffy defenses (all four teams have given up more than hundred total points in four games). Yes, the season is young, but a pattern seems to be emerging. Play defense, have the quarterback manage the game and win.

The Colts salary cap situation is only going to get worse as Luck’s contract matures. This season Luck’s salary is eighteen million, next year nineteen million, then twenty-four million in 2018 than twenty-eight million in 2019. Now the Colts could restructure Luck’s contract by extending the contract and lowering the base salary, but you’re talking three or four years down the road. Currently, Luck is taking up 12% of the team’s cap. 12% is on average with Alex Smith, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers which is twelfth in the league. Not bad right…..wrong. The lack of drafting young, cheap talent in Indy is starting to catch up. While the Chiefs have Smith at 13% of their cap they also have a wealth of defensive talent with Justin Houston, Eric Berry, Derrick Johnson and Marcus Peters and Dee Ford on rookie contracts. The Seahawks have allowed only fifty four points in four games due to a defense lead by Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, etc…..all making between eight to twelve million dollars. The Packers are notorisly built through the draft to avoid going over the salary cap. The inability of the Colts to draft and develop young talent through the draft has forced the Colts to sign free agents (very expensive) leaving the roster bare. With the improvement of the AFC South the Colts will be stuck in the 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 purgatory (Not good enough to make playoffs, not bad enough for top picks).

The only way for the Colts to get back into the top contenders in the league is to either fall into a stud player or two in the next draft or free agency (given their poor history with drafting and free agents this is unlikely) or do something drastic (Trade Andrew Luck). Luck’s value on the trade market is difficult to judge but with the two recent trades for quarterbacks (Jarred Goff and Wentz) we have a baseline. For the rights to draft Goff the Rams parted with two number ones, two number two’s and two number three’s plus extra picks in rounds six and seven the Eagles on the other hand gave up two number ones, a second rounder, a third rounder, and a forth rounder. Luck’s Pro-Bowl resume is more deserving then either of those two trades, but the Rams deal is closer. Add a package of picks or players and your close to Luck’s value. A trade of two first round picks, two second round, two third rounder’s and two forth rounder for Luck seems reasonable. The only team in the NFL that can make that trade is the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have acquired eight additional picks in the next two drafts; between those picks and the Browns own picks they have the ammunition to make a pick for player swap. If the Browns offered that deal to the Colts would they accept? The Browns have the picks to make the deal happen, and the need for a quarterback. It makes sense. NFL draft picks are the most random, unpredictable assets to have, but with eight picks at their disposable the Colts are bound to hit on at least half; that would mean the Colts pick up four starters, two contributors and two picks that do not make the roster. The Colts could also trade down on those picks and collect more picks increase their odds to find quality players. Cleveland will be pretty terrible for a few years so those picks will more then likely end up in the top ten or possibly top five; meaning the Colts could draft Deshawn Watson of Clemson, DeShone Kizer of Norte Damn or Brad Kaaya of Miami. The Browns on the other hand would have their franchise quarterback. The last Cleveland Brown quarterback to be considered a franchise quarterback was Bernie Kosar.

The 49ers could package players and picks to entice the Colts. The 49ers could send two number one draft picks, two second round picks along with Eli Harold or Aaron Lynch (both are 22 and 23-year old pass rushers….Lynch had 6.5 sacks in a limited role last season) and Eric Reid or Jimmy Ward (both former number one picks in the secondary). Acquiring a young pass rusher that has experience in a 3-4 defense would fill an immediate need for the Colts and a talented safety such as Reid or Ward will be an upgrade over Mike Adams. The four extra picks can be used to build the offensive side of the ball; Drafting an offensive linemen or two make sense as games are won and lost in the trenches (The Dallas Cowboys start two rookies in the backfield and are successful due to an awesome offensive line). The 49ers would land a quarterback that instantly puts them back into contention. After trading for Luck the 49ers can release Kaepernick which would only cause a cap hit of two million dollars.

The Chicago Bears could also make a deal for Andrew Luck. Jay Cutler has had an up and down career with the Bears since 2009. In 2010 Cutler lead the Bears to the NFC title game, but has also lead the NFL in interceptions twice since 2009. If Brian Hoyer can preform well in the next few week the Bears may be ready to part ways with Cutler (especially if they can acquire Luck). The Bears could offer a package similar to that of the Colts: Two first round picks, a pass-rusher and secondary player. Leonard Floyd, Kyle Fuller, two first round picks, and two second round picks for Luck is a win win for each team.

The Colts are in a position now where crazy just might work. Short term the Colts are going to be horrible but long term they could be awesome.

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