Pros And Cons Positional Review Part One (#FantasyFootball)

Player A is a future Hall of Fame Quarterback, and Player B is Eli Manning. Jokes… Kind of…

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% here for all the Baker Mayfield shares I can find! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you will be based on the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community had split ideas on prior to the season starting. It’s recap city over here!

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

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Prior to the season starting, I went to the masses and started listening to what the streets were saying. That’s right. Because the streets have nothing better to do these days than to talk about Fantasy Football, starts and sits, buy lows and sell highs. But by now, after nearly 25 weeks of my gibberish and rhetoric, you know what this article is and means to the audience. I literally mention it in my opening template every week. I take the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community is harping on about and break down the good and the bad, the upside and the downside (you get the drift right?) of what certain players have to offer. I selected a handful of players from each position at the start of the year and am now following up with how their season finished and what their future looks like.

At Quarterback, I selected both Russell Wilson and Eli Manning, who will be this week’s focal point one last time to follow up on how their seasons unfolded. How about we start with the basic numbers…

Statistical Overview

Highest Position Finish / Week: In Week 13, Russell Wilson finished as the QB3 Overall at San Francisco. Although he only had 185 Passing Yards, Wilson knocked in 4 Touchdowns in doing so giving him an impressive 30.80 Fantasy Points. In Week 7, Eli Manning had himself a day in Atlanta throwing for 399 yards to be the QB7 that week. Such is the life of an Eli Manning weekend, he only had 1 Touchdown for 20.66 Fantasy Points.

Lowest Finish / Week: In Week 14, Russell Wilson finished as the QB27 at home to Minnesota. He had 72 Passing Yards and an INT, which was ‘salvaged’ by 61 Rushing Yards on the day. Eli Manning… Where do we begin? His worst Fantasy Football day was a 5.16 Points outcome at home to Tennessee for 229 Passing Yards and an INT and was the QB27.

Best Fantasy Performance / Week: For me, Russell Wilson in Week 16 was the QB5 at Home against Kansas was magic. It was everything you know he is and at times it was a masterclass. 271 Passing Yards, 3 Touchdowns along with 57 Rushing Yards saw the Seahawks virtually grab a Playoff spot with a 38-31 win. Eli Manning, also in Week 16 was away to Indianapolis playing in what you not would call somewhat a typical Manning ‘good’ game. He had over 300 Passing Yards, he had a Rushing Touchdown and threw one score too, but it was to Scott Simonson. Over 300 Yards? Ok, he is capable of that on a good day. But a Rushing Touchdown and a Passing Touchdown that was not to Sterling Shepard, Odell Beckham, Evan Engram or Saquon Barkley. To Scott Simonson; makes complete sense…

Preseason ADP (per fantasyfootballcalculator.com): Russell Wilson was drafted as the QB4 or at the 6.02 Overall. Eli Manning was drafted as the QB25 or 14.08 Overall.

End Of Season Standing: Russell Wilson finished as the QB9 with 289.4 points over 16 games with an 18.7.ppg average. Eli Manning finished as the QB16 with 240.0 points over 16 games with a 15.0 ppg average.

My Projections –

All projections are for the respective Players ceiling

Russell Wilson

Predicted Passing – Attempts; 527 / Completions; 340 / Completion Percentage; 64.7% / Yards; 4075.33 / Yards Per Completion; 11.98 / TDS; 29 / INT; 12. Predicted Rushing – Attempts; 90 / Yards; 504 / Yards Per Attempt; 5.6 / TDS; 5

Results For Passing – Attempts; 427 / Completions; 280 / Completion Percentage; 65.57% / Yards; 3448 / Yards Per Completion; 12.31 / TDS; 35 / INT; 7. Results For Rushing – Attempts; 67 / Yards; 376 / Yards Per Attempt; 5.6 / TDS; 0

Was I In The Ballpark? – Third tier concourse in the outfield at an away game in the snow. I was hoping that he would have a bit more of a license to throw more. But, Doug Baldwin being hurt at the start of the year, and the plethora of poor Receivers he had to deal with at his disposal limited that part of the game (remember, the part where sometimes the Quarterback throws the ball and a teammate catches it?) and it showed in the results. Also, Seattle opted for a 3-man (four if you include Wilson) rotation of Running Backs in a committee that restricted his upside in that department also. As a result, he finished lower than I had anticipated. I balme Brian Schottenheimer…

PREDICTED FINISH; QB1-5 / END OF SEASON FINISH; QB9

Eli Manning

Predicted Passing – Attempts; 588.75 / Completions; 364 / Completion Percentage; 61.82% / Yards; 3975.5 / Yards Per Completion; 10.92 / TDS; 27 / INT; 15

Results For Passing – Attempts; 576 / Completions; 380 / Completion Percentage; 65.97 / Yards; 4299 / Yards Per Completion; 11.31 / TDS; 21 / INT; 11

Was I In The Ballpark? – To be fair I was nearly on the money with Manning in most aspects. I was slightly up on his Attempts and had a lower Completion Percentage. And as a result, he had more yards than I would have thought possible. I was a tad aggressive on the Touchdowns and Interceptions but I had that attack doing more (there were seven games where the Giants had scored 20 or fewer points, four games of 15 or fewer points and one game with zero points scored). I did have him as a back end QB1 to a high-end QB2 in Fantasy and that’s just about where he landed. So I think I was as close as any when it came to predicting his season.

PREDICTED FINISH; QB10-15 / END OF SEASON FINISH; QB16

Not bad at all when you consider the Quarterback landscape at the start of the year.

Well, what was that landscape like? 

Glad you asked!

We knew with all the Quarterbacks coming back from injuries and the influx of the 2018 Rookie Class that it (the available players) would open up the talent pool and we could see a fair bit of variance on where players could and might end up. For example, we were all skeptical this year of a guy like Deshaun Watson, who, in 2017 was punching out Fantasy Points every week at a record and alarming pace which no one thought he could replicate. He was crazy good this year, in his second year as a Pro with only a handful of games under his belt, and we see that it wasn’t really a fluke and he ultimately finished as the QB4 Overall. But it’s not like anyone is going to replicate what he did in 2017, right?

What’s that?

Patrick Mahomes in his ‘debut’ season as a starter had 5000 Yards and 50 Touchdowns and finished as the QB1 Overall for the season? He did? Wow. No one can top that though right, nothing else should surprise us should it?

What’s that?

Ben Roethlisberger, had the most Yards in the NFL this season and finished as the QB3? He aided in Antonio Brown having another 100 catch season and put JuJu Smith-Schuster in position to be one of the league’s breakout stars. Add to it; he did it without Le’Veon Bell which in hindsight should have skewed his Total Yards on the year.

What’s that?

Well, it’s not like Andrew Luck is going to come back from an unknown career-threatening injury, is he? He did? And he made Eric Ebron a Top 5 Tight End and finished as the QB5 Overall during the process? Surely not?! Geez before you know it you’ll be telling me Matt Ryan with Steve ‘Sark’ Sarkisian as his Offensive Coordinator will round out the Top 5! He can’t even get Julio Jones Touchdowns!

What’s that?

He pretty much did? How? Right…20 fewer yards, 3 fewer Touchdowns and the same (7) amount of Interceptions and 69% Completion Percentage for 354 Fantasy Points and the QB2 Overall this year compared to the 347.5 Fantasy Points and Overall QB2 as well in 2016. When he was the league MVP? How about that…

Soon you’ll be telling me that only one of the above five players were drafted as a Top 5 Quarterback!

Well…

Deshaun Watson was drafted higher than anyone had thought should have been (remember that small sample size issue everyone had) because of what he had provided in 2017 and was drafted as the QB2 Overall with an ADP of 4.06.

Small sample sizes you say?

Andrew Luck had no sample size in 2017, and prior to playing in Game 1 this year, we had no idea if he could recapture his old form. Luck had a virtually different team at his disposal and was next up off the rank as the QB9 Overall with an 8.02 ADP. Pat Mahomes (was drafted as the QB15 or 10.08) and had played one game in 2017 in Week 17 and showed a little of what he can do. That was your sample size and he finished 63 points ahead of the QB2 this year. Matt Ryan (QB13, 10.02) and Ben Roethlisberger (QB14, 10.04) who were drafted slightly ahead of Mahomes this year and rounded out the Top 5.

So, 3 of the Top 5 Quarterbacks in 2017 gave us minimal to zero samples of what the following year could be for them. Two were returning from major injuries, the other had played one game as a Pro, while the Top 3 to finish the year were Drafted outside of the Top 12 Quarterbacks in ADP this season. Unreal.

And our guys?

Russell Wilson was taken as the QB4 (5.10) this year and was outscored by the QB1 Pat Mahomes by 118.6 points (7.41 Points per game difference) and the QB5 Andrew Luck by 28.7 points (1.8 points per game difference). Wilson was pretty much one relatively massive game from returning interest on where you drafted him. But it was probably the 34 Yards a game he used to average Rushing Yards per week which was down to 23 yards per game along with no Touchdowns on the ground for himself. That whole lack of production – for me – is the reason and difference as to why he was not a Top 5 Quarterback this season.

As for Eli Manning…look unless you drafted him in the 14th Round like his ADP suggested then you were probably grabbing him if you were in a deep, deep league or were in a 2QB and/or a Superflex league. But if you must know…he was roughly 11.06 points per game fewer than Pat Mahomes, or 5.44 points per game fewer than Andrew Luck. But Manning did have one more Rushing Touchdown than Russell Wilson had this year… he also only had the one Rushing Touchdown…

DO YOU KNOW:

• That Eli Manning had only 5 more Attempts in 2018 than he did in 2017? And in that same time span, this season he had 28 more Completions, 2 more Touchdowns, and 2 fewer Intercepts? That’s pretty good, right? Well…he was also sacked 16 (16!) more times… That’s pretty bad, right? Such is a season following Eli Manning, full of ups and downs.
• That from Weeks 1-17, Russell Wilson had 35 (35!) Touchdowns off 280 attempts? That’s a Touchdown every 8 (8!) passes! Heres what’s nuts to me; Seattle ran the ball on 52.44% of plays or roughly 32 times a game, the second-most times in the league behind Baltimore, which means Wilson averaged a click over 17 Completions a game. That’s maybe 49 plays on Offense a game. So Seattle averaged between 26-27 Attempts a game and Russell Wilson had a Touchdown on every 8 Completions…1,2 carry the Y – that’s an average of 2.16 Touchdowns a game in a low-volume passing attack. But want to know what’s crazier? Wilson had only five games where he had over 20 Completions. Ok, that’s pretty low, but there were seven games where he had less than 20 Completions in a game and had three or more Touchdowns in those games. To be clear about this – RUSSELL WILSON HAD MORE TOUCHDOWNS ON FEWER COMPLETIONS (25 TOUCHDOWNS IN GAMES WITH LESS THAN 20 COMPLETIONS) THAN IF HE HAD MORE COMPLETIONS (10 TOUCHDOWNS IN GAMES WITH MORE THAN 20 COMPLETIONS).
• That Nick Mullens played his first game of the year as the third-string Quarterback against Oakland in Week 9 and finished 8 games this season. He finished as the QB32 Overall with 123.5 Fantasy Points. However, over a 16 game season that would have been good for 574-352-64.23%-26:20 and would have equated to 247 points while finishing as the QB16… 7 points more than what Eli Manning had this year.

THE PROS

Russell Wilson.

Russell Wilson is a running Machine! Russell Wilson is one of the best mobile (not just mobile, overall also; I’m just trying to create a narrative here…) Quarterbacks in the NFL and he previously averaged 34 Yards Per Game (YPG) on the ground. This year his attempts on the ground dropped to 4.2 Rushing Attempts per game and his yards dropped to 23 YPG. This was something that we in the Fantasy Community thought was a ‘Pro’ for Wilson, had kind of backfired as that aspect of his game was reduced. He had 376 Total Yards Rushing this year and in one game had 92 yards which spiked his YPG completely. That one game was the difference between averaging 23 YPG compared to 18.93 YPG it could have been if it weren’t for that game against the L.A. Rams in Week 9.

Every year Russell Wilson makes players around him better (see Jermaine Kearse and Paul Richardson) and not the other way around, so who steps up with Paul Richardson moving on? Smart decisions were made by Paul Richardson, clearly, as that move to Washington really worked out! But, Tyler Lockett has been on the edge of breaking out in the past and this year he did so. Kind of. He produced 10 Touchdowns and 976 Yards, and Lockett filled the void better than anyone had hoped. However, Doug Baldwin essentially missed half a season and with no Jimmy Graham in the picture (coupled with a run-first mentality) we saw Lockett pushed as the defacto best Receiver available for Seattle. He also did this off of an 81% catch rate (SECOND OVERALL AMONGST ALL WIDE RECEIVERS in the NFL in 2018) and a 70-57-965 season, the volume still felt like it wasn’t there for him. An example of how low his Targets this year were compared to others in the league, the following sample list of Receivers had MORE RECEPTIONS than Tyler Lockett had TARGETS (70):

Austin Hooper, Golden Tate, Adam Humphries, Julian Edelman, Emmanuel Sanders, Jarvis Landry, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Kenny Golladay, Zach Ertz, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks and another 13 studs who you know already. 

But he did enough each week for Russell Wilson to exploit and it was an efficient season. How that needle moves next year is another thing. But I can’t fathom that a Touchdown every 5.7 Receptions can be replicated in 2019. Which explains Wilson’s perfect Passer Rating when he was targeting Lockett. Again, I can’t imagine that carries over next season but it was a hell of an effort by the two players, however, unless those Targets come up a little bit more I would be slightly worried if I were to be banking on similar numbers happening again in 2019.

Eli Manning.

What does the arrival of Saquon Barkley mean and how would that work out? Well, it’s official – Saquon Barkley is a stud. We knew this from his Penn State film. We knew this from his Draft Combine workout film. We saw enough off a few plays in the preseason. But Barkley had 121-91-721-4 as a Receiver. To give this stat slightly more context, only Calvin Ridley and D.J. Moore had more Receiving Yards than Barkley had this year, and yet Barkley had more Yards and Touchdowns than Courtland Sutton, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That’s what bailing an aged veteran Quarterback looks like. Yards after the catch, evaded tackles, check-downs – Barkley did it all for Manning. He saved him by deflecting the focus on why the Giants missed on a Rookie play-caller like Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold in this year’s rookie draft.

In 2017, Case Keenum under the guidance of Pat Shurmur finished as the Number 2 Overall in QBR (74.3%), Number 2 Overall in Completion Percentage (67.6%), and 12th Overall in Total Yards (3647) can Manning rank just as well at the end of the season?. For a guy who was their third choice starter in Minnesota last year, surely Shurmur could get the same sort of production out of a two-time Superbowl Winning Quarterback? No. Not really. Eli Manning had a brutal QBR (51.2%) at 26th Overall, 17th Overall in Completion Percentage (66%) and 9th Overall in Total Yards (4299). But I refer back to what the difference between 2017 and 2018 was clearly Saquon Barkley. 721 Yards Receiving compared to last years Running Back Wayne Gallman (193 Yards and 1 Touchdown) is enough to of a difference between a 4299 Yard season with Barkley and a 3578 Yard season without Barkley.

The Outcomes:

Wilson’s Rushing YPG and Rushing Attempts Per Game came down significantly. Everything on the eye and a fair bit in the stats column looked to come down this year. It wasn’t a quality problem it was a playcalling problem. 

We know that Kyle Lauletta was not the answer and that Manning would have no threat to having time taken away. He had a better year than in 2017 but that was a product of better players on the team (as I have mentioned, Saquon Barkley and the return of Odell Beckham Jr) and not Manning playing above himself. Shocker, right?

THE CONS

Russell Wilson:

Who fills in for Jimmy Graham and the 10 Touchdowns he leaves behind? My money was on Jaron Brown stepping up as a recruit from Arizona, and he did have 5 Touchdown this year, hypothetically filling half of the void left by Graham. Brown did this off 14 Receptions only. It was the Tyler Lockett Show with a sprinkle of Chris Carson, as the two of them combined for 2348 Total Yards and 19 Touchdowns this season.

Brian Schottenheimer’s playcalling could stifle Wilson’s production on the ground and in the air. I mentioned earlier that the Seahawks ran the second most Run plays this season, and for the most part that did not involve Russell Wilson. But it was the complete lack of passing that had everyone stunned. You have at your disposal one of the smartest and craftiest Quarterbacks in the league; one would think you would let him make some plays. Wilson had 427 passing attempts, his fewest since 2014 when he had 407 Attempts. However, in 2014 he did have 96 rushing attempts for 539 yards and a Touchdown, compared to 67 Attempts and 376 Yards this year and 0 Touchdowns this season. While finishing as the QB9 this season, Wilson statistically did less than he had in the past 4-5 years. He did not return value from this years ADP.

Their Offensive Line won’t protect him, they are trash and Pro Football Focus had them as Ranked 30th Overall prior to the season starting, how did that finish? Ranked 18th Overall which makes sense that they would finish in that area, as players were being rested prior to the Playoffs. Chris Carson had a stellar second season and held Rookie (and First Round Draft Pick) Rashaad Penny at more than an arm’s length, while Mike Davis chipped in and flashed when he was called upon. For what it’s worth, Wilson was still Sacked the most he had ever been Sacked since 2015 and was Sacked the third most in 2018 with 52 behind Deshaun Watson (65) and Dak Prescott (58). 

Eli Manning:

For me, a lot of what happens comes down to three things:

1. How much are they financially tied to Manning going forward? Manning will be a cap hit in the $23 million range but the Giants can save about $17 million if they were to cut him. In March, the Giants have the option to pay Manning a $5 million roster bonus, which if he were to receive that would, to me, likely indicate that he is not going anywhere. I would be fairly shocked to see the Giants pay Eli Manning $5 million, only to cut him later. So, for this reason alone, March and this bonus payment alone will indicate the next steps the Giants take.
2. Who else is available in Free Agency? There will be a handful of Quarterbacks who could be serviceable if they were to become available and at worse be a backup to a Rookie Drafted in a ‘mentor’ role while still being cheaper and Eli Manning next season. Some may or may not be cut at this point so bear with me), but guys like Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater all could step in for a year if Manning were to get cut. Once again, this option would be likely to happen if Manning were to be cut prior to March when that bonus I previously mentioned kicks in.
3. Rookie Draft Class? Ok, it has been said plenty of times that this years Draft Class isn’t that great for Quarterbacks and that sentiment is heightened further with Justin Hebert not declaring for another year and opting to stay in Oregon. They liked Will Grier and traveled a few times to see him play a fair bit towards the end of the season and Kyler Murray (this year’s Heisman Trophy winner) did opt for the NFL over the MLB which is a boost to the position. But Dwayne Haskins has stepped up and displayed plenty of positives and has been upfront about his desire to be a New York Giant (via a recent social media post), who hold the 6th Pick next season. Dave Gettleman has an old school head on his shoulders and I don’t think he will draft back and increase his Franchises future Draft capital, so I think he bites and takes a Quarterback first.

The Outcomes:

Russell Wilson:

Seattle needs to protect Russell Wilson and that for me is the way forward to get more out of him. It can’t be a new toy ‘Rookie’ like a Wide Receiver or Tight End (geez he made Will Dissly relevant, remember him?), it needs to be in the trenches blocking for him. Andrew Luck had an incredible year because he had time to make plays with guys like Dontrelle Inman and Chester Rodgers, and Marlon Mack ended up being a stud Running Back at the end of the year. The Colts Drafted Quenton Nelson in the First Round (who made the Pro Bowl as a Rookie) and Braden Smith in the Second Round who were light and day the best thing to happen to that franchise. Seattle should look to replicating this path the Colts took. Duane Brown looked good for Seattle this year, but that doesn’t mean that the rest of that group can’t be upgraded. Protect your star, protect Russell Wilson.

Eli Manning:

The Giants have shown their hand over the past few seasons in not wanting to hurt Eli Manning’s feelings and my gut tells me that pay him the bonus due in March then wait to see if they can move him via a trade (Denver loves a Manning, don’t they? Wait they grabbed Joe Flacco? Nevermind…) prior to the Draft at the end of May. As I mentioned above, I believe the New York Giants will draft a Quarterback with their First Round Pick next season which opens their options up the most. If Manning doesn’t get moved on then you have an experienced Quarterback in a system he was fine in leading the way teaching the Rookie the ways of being a New York Giant. If the Rookie can beat him out then Manning takes a mentor role and plays the waiting game. I don’t believe the Giants will pay the same amount of money to a Free Agent Quarterback to have the same potential result (i.e. the Rookie takes over from the Veteran in the end) from happening.

WAY TO EARLY 2019 BOLD PREDICTIONS

Russell Wilson:

The Seahawks actually do the right thing by Wilson and get him some protection and get him one of this year’s top Free Agents (and ideally a bigger bodied guy than what they have) Wide Receiver, Devin Funchess. He’s built like a Tight End and could be a steal for Wilson.

Eli Manning:

Everything I have mentioned previously has me believing that Eli Manning will be playing second-fiddle to a Rookie Quarterback in 2019, and I think they will roll with Dwayne Haskins. And yes, I do think he (Manning) starts the year too. But, as we know the temperament in that Giants locker room at times has had some volatile moments so my bold prediction is that it will be the players that demand a switch for a Quarterback change and not the production of Manning’s performances. It’ll be a mutiny!

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SUMMARY

The Seahawks did miss Jimmy Graham, not a lot but enough. Doug Baldwin, when healthy looked fantastic and Tyler Lockett is, dare I say it, the Number One in Seattle despite a huge lack of volume which makes him as risky as any – especially when the Fantasy Draft season kicks off – I can imagine he will be one of a few people we will see with a dramatic increase of ADP. Still, this team made the Playoffs and I think will go Defense heavy in the Draft after they address their Offensive Line. This line of thought means that they upgrade their Receivers group in Free Agency. Fast, big-bodied Receivers? I mentioned Devin Funchess earlier, but how about Tyrell Williams to excite the masses? But it’s Seattle, and they want to keep running the ball, so… they’ll probably give away a Second Round Draft Pick for James Develin?

I don’t see Eli Manning playing for another team. He is the New York Giants and I honestly believe that if he were to leave and go to somewhere like Jacksonville or Denver – and say he hypothetically failed – it would only further the narrative that he just isn’t that good and the team he was on always carried him. Eli Manning has had moments, highlight reel moments: but they’re always attached to fluke or freak efforts like the ‘helmet catch’ or an Odell Beckham matrix-bending play. The Giants will draft a Quarterback and I believe Manning will still start the season. The end of Manning’s career is here, and it will see him end up in a mentor role unless they pick poorly – and it’s another 5-11 season.

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You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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