Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/25)
Welcome to the Friday edition of Swing for the Fences. No this is not a duplicate of Tuesday’s lineup even with J.D. Martinez as the featured hitter again. Although I’d be okay with duplicating Tuesday’s results where I was able to put up a three-homer day with four of my recommendations scoring at least 21 FanDuel points. Friday’s 15-game slate is difficult to find value long balls so I am paying up at a lot of positions which leads to very cheap and very weak pitching options to choose from but we’ll give it a shot.
Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.
So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…
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C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Half of Grandal’s 18 homers have come at home against righties and he has three long balls off right-hander Chase Anderson in 13 career at-bats.
1B – Jose Abreu (CHW) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Abreu has a .216 ISO versus right-handed pitchers this season and has had success against Justin Verlander in his career batting .364 with four homers in 33 at-bats.
2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Dozier has a .262 ISO versus lefties this season and has taken southpaw J.A. Happ deep twice in 10 career at-bats.
SS – Paul DeJong (STL) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,500) – DeJong has a .347 ISO at home versus righties this season and faces a right-hander Jake Odorizzi who has reverse spits allowing 2.45 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this year.
3B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Donaldson is hot with 11 home runs this month and will face Bartolo Colon who has allowed three homers in each of his last two starts.
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OF – JD Martinez (ARI) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Martinez at home versus a lefty, sign me up. He has eight homers in just 58 at-bats versus lefties this season and will face Ty Blach who has allowed 1.80 HR/9 to righties on the road this season.
OF – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Schwarber has a .255 ISO versus righties this season and will square off against righty Jerad Eickhoff who has allowed 1.30 HR/9 to lefties.
OF – Scott Schebler (CIN) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $4,000) – You want Schebler when he is hot and with three doubles and a homer over his last four starts he looks to be heating up.
Longshot – Seth Smith (BAL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Smith has had success against Rick Porcello batting .400 with five extra-base hits in 25 at-bats during his career.
Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Travis Wood ($5,900), Nick Martinez ($5,700), Robert Stephenson ($5,600)
DraftKings – Michael Wacha ($7,400), CC Sabathia ($7,200), Travis Wood ($6,400)
Wednesday, June 29 – Results
| Pos | Name | HR | FD Pts |
| C | Alex Avila | 0 | 21.9 |
| 1B | Chris Davis | 0 | 6.2 |
| 2B | Scooter Gennett | 1 | 24.9 |
| 3B | Nolan Arenado | 1 | 25.2 |
| SS | Zack Cozart | 0 | 9.2 |
| OF | Ryan Braun | 0 | 6.5 |
| OF | J.D. Martinez | 1 | 25.7 |
| OF | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | 9.2 |
| Longshot | Kendrys Morales | 0 | 6.2 |
Season Results
| Pos | Picks | HR | HR Rate | Avg FD Pts |
| C | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 12.61 |
| 1B | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 12.31 |
| 2B | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 11.41 |
| SS | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 13.68 |
| 3B | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.68 |
| OF | 103 | 26 | 25.2% | 12.67 |
| Longshot | 32 | 4 | 12.5% | 10.96 |
| Total | 299 | 71 | 23.7% | 12.19 |
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