The NFL “Way Too Early for a Top 10” Top 12

The season is not even finished yet, and I’m starting to see cheat sheets for next year already. Crazy right? Well, crazy enough that I thought I would go ahead and do a top 12 of my own.

Why top 12 you ask? Everyone does a top 10, so I want to do something a little different. Not to mention that the 2 leagues I play are both 12 team leagues. Before I get to the list, there are a few disclaimers that I’ll have to mention.

This list is assuming Peyton Manning returns, as his departure will affect the other skill players on that team. I’m also going to make the assumption that Demarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch are still with their respective teams, even though I don’t really think Murray will be. Finally, I’m going to assume Adrian Peterson is back with the Vikings and faces no more suspension. So on to the list:

1) Le’veon Bell–
Pretty much the consensus pick on everyone’s cheat sheet. He had a monster year both rushing and receiving. I think the distance between him and #2 is as large as it has been in recent memory.

2) Jamal Charles–
Imagine how good this guy would be if they had an decent WR and QB that throws the ball passed 15 yards downfield. Amazingly Charles only had 44 receptions this year, while playing on a team that didn’t have a WR catch a TD all year. Charles had over 70 receptions last year, so a significant drop off, and still was the 7th best RB last year.

3) Eddie Lacey–
If Lacey started the season the way he finished it, he might be at the top of this list instead of Le’veon. There was talk in the beginning of the season that James Starks was the more effective RB in Green Bay, that’s how bad the number 6 ADP RB from last year started. All he did after the slow start was work his way right into the slot he was drafted at, the number 6 RB in total fantasy points.

4) Demarco Murray–
How does the number 1 non-QB in total points last year slip all the way to 4th you ask? Two reasons. Despite staying relatively healthy all year, he is still an injury risk in my mind, and the Cowboys ran him so much last year, I’d expect them to dial it back some this year. Especially if they sign him to a huge contract during the offseason. I think you’ll see more of Randle this year.

5) LeSean McCoy–
A consensus top 3 pick last year did not live up to his ADP. Finishing the year at the 11th overall RB on the year. Some of his drop off was due to the signing of Darren Sproles, but some of it was him trying to do too much. Some of the games I watched this year, it seemed like he wanted to score on every play. Consistently bouncing it outside instead of just taking what was there. If he gets back to what he did the year before, he should exceed his ADP this year.

6) Matt Forte–
Forte had a monster year. Lead the Bears in receptions and they have 2 guys on the outside that pretty good in Marshall and Jefferies. My only concern here is he is going on 30, but the type of back he is, being 30 shouldn’t affect him too much.

7) Marshawn Lynch–
They keep predicting that Lynch is going to hit a wall, and he keeps running through them. As long as he re-ups with the Seahawks there is no reason to believe he won’t be able to do it again.

8) Adrian Peterson–
I’m putting Peterson here because he is still a tremendous talent, and having a year off, his age of 30 won’t matter as much. With that said, if I was in the 8th spot in my draft, and he was on the board, I’m not taking him. There are too many questions surrounding him, and I’d rather not deal with it all season long.

There is actually a scenario in which the Cowboys let Murray walk, and sign Peterson to a one year “show me” contract. If that were to happen, he would move up this list.

9) Rob Gronkowski –
He stayed healthy all year and looked like the Gronk of old. He was brought along slowly at the start of the season, playing less then 50% of the snaps in some cases, and still ended up as the number 1 TE overall. Tom Brady doesn’t have the “will he retire” rumors surrounding him that Manning does, so Gronk is a sure fire first round pick.

10) Antonio Brown–
We get to our first, and only WR in my first round. Antonio Brown is the model of consistency. He had only 3 games this year where he scored single digits(standard scoring). By comparison, the number 2 WR in total points behind Brown, Jordy Nelson, had 8 games of single digits!

I had brown as my number WR last year in my mock draft, and I was happy as a pig in shit to get him in the second round last year. That offense will be pretty much the same as it was this year, so Brown is primed for another great year.

11) Aaron Rodgers–
Now we get to the first of the back to back QBs. Why Aaron over Luck? I mean Luck had the better fantasy season last year. One answer. Rodgers has better weapons. What would happen if Luck lost T.Y. Does Moncrief and Nicks scare you? Dewayne Allen? Rodgers did it for a year without Jordy. He did it for a year without Cobb. So for my money, it’s still Rodgers.

12) Andrew Luck–
Rounding out the top 12 is Andrew Luck. Hopefully the Colts find a way to get him some more weapons. Outside of T.Y Hilton, there isn’t anyone defenses are afraid of. They need to get more then just a WR as well. Trent Richardson is terrible. Ahmad Bradshaw is coming off his second season ending injury, and Dan Herron isn’t the answer.

Other Potential 1st Rounders:
-CJ Anderson
-Jermey Hill
-Demarius Thomas
-Dez Bryant
-Calvin Johnson
-Jordy Nelson
-Odell Beckham Jr.
-Arian Foster
-Justin Forsett

Obviously these positions will change during the offseason. Some of these players may not even be back with their respective teams. So take this with a grain of salt. Just thought it would be fun to do.

You Have a different list? Did I leave someone out? Please comment and tell me what you think.
Follow me on Twitter @geofflambert77

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