Welcome back into ‘The Only IDP Sit/Start You Need to Win Week 10’. As always, the goal of this series will be to take a look at those players we are not quite certain on each week and help identify at each level (DL, LB, DB) an individual you should be starting with confidence (maybe even pursuing if he isn’t on your roster) and one you should be fading at least this week or maybe more.
The big question mark with IDP though is what scoring format are you using. IDP fantasy football leagues haven’t reached a level of a “standard” scoring that the vast majority of leagues play with. So for our purposes, we will focus on a format known as ‘IDP123’ (examples: Tackles 2 points, FF/FR 3 pts, Sacks/Ints 6 pts) With that being said, let’s get into why you came here!
Defensive Line, Start – Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Las Vegas Raiders
Yannick Ngakoue has been on a tear lately notching 6.0 sacks over the last 4 weeks with 3 of those weeks picking up 2 sacks in those games. Now I know this feels like we are just chasing points but the success goes beyond his sack total.
For starters, he has 5 straight games of 2 QB hits and 3 of those 5 include sacks along with that. And just for good measure, the game prior to that 5th game, he has another game with a QB hit to boot. His individual performances have stood up well with a PFF pass-rush grade of 81.3 and teams can’t focus on only him as Maxx Crosby has been elite for most of the season too, 91.9 pass-rush grade.
This week the Raiders have the Chiefs. They are a team that has had its only struggles in pass protection this year and have a quarterback in Patrick Mahomes that likes to try and extend plays which leads to strong pass rushers finding high levels of success.
This week, Yannick finds his way to the QB at least once… and maybe keeps the 2 sack trend rolling for another week as well!
Defensive Line, Sit – Joey Bosa, DE, Los Angeles Chargers
As we have reached this point in the season, we have gathered statically significant data at this point in the year to be able to predict what kind of influence a team should have on an IDP’s fantasy production. And taking a look at Joey Bosa’s season so far this year, he has had strong performances in his pass rush wins, but he has not been able to translate that into consistent IDP production.
This week Joey has the Minnesota Vikings which have shown to significantly limit a defensive lineman’s IDP fantasy production by 20% over their average on the season. When you look at 4.5 sacks, 24 tackles, 1 for loss over his 8 games, and reduce that production overall, it is not something I am looking at throwing in my starting lineup.
I know this may be tough to bench Joey Bosa, because based on the draft capital you took him at, you may not have the ability or depth on your roster. But this is the week to go for it if you have that luxury. If you don’t, the talent is certainly there that he can pull through with a sack, however, there are most certainly better matchups to pursue.
Linebacker, Start – Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers
While this one may seem like a no-brainer to some, there are those out there who aren’t on the Fred Warner train. So I am here to tell you, you should be and this week will help solidify those who might still have some doubt!
It was only a few years ago when the San Francisco 49ers rode their elite defense to a Super Bowl birth and were one deep shot to Emmanuel Sanders away from winning a Super Bowl. However, things change quickly in the NFL. And that defense is not what it used to be after some players moved on via free agency or trades and coaching staff turnover. Where does that leave us today? A defense that its three-down players are seeing an average of 65+ snaps a game.
65+ opportunities and very limited production from others outside of the front four means Fred Warner gets to feast on most of these opportunities. What has this meant for Warner? A season-low of 7 tackles would be floor (week 2 and a low end of only 58 snaps) and a ceiling of 14 tackles (week 9). This is our most consistent and sticky stat when it comes to LB production for IDP fantasy football, but Fred Warner adds in the addition of tackles for loss as well as passes defended.
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His production is matched by his talent and PFF grades him out as the 13th best LB this year. As for what week 10 brings them, it is the LA Rams and that offense looks to rebound after a poor showing against the Titans. And you can bet they are ready to move the ball against this defense. Look for Warner to be in the top 10 this week for LB IDP fantasy production.
After highlighting Fred Warner, we want to remind you, don’t forget to check out the Prop Bets from PlayPickUp.com. This week we are looking at whether or not he can finish inside the top 10. He has been healthy and productive and stands at number 10 to date. The production will be consistent and some of the names ahead of him will drop (I am looking at you, Alex Singleton). Be sure to enter your phone number to verify your pick and you could win free stuff!
Linebacker, Sit – Cory Littleton, Las Vegas Raiders
The former IDP darling of the LA Rams, Cory Littleton quickly became the black sheep of IDP linebackers with a significant drop-off in production last year. He has rebounded back a bit this year with some great performances but is still finding a way to plant some duds along the way. The trick now is, can we navigate those ups and downs. We are going to try and this week is one of those down weeks.
For this season, Littleton’s success is tied to plus snap counts (55+) and matchups that have allowed for positive game scripts for the Raiders (meaning their opponents are playing from 9+ points down) for at least half of the game and/or teams that have higher pass percentage versus the league average.
This week we have an interesting cross-section of these points. Kansas City likes to pass the ball (if you didn’t know this, what rock have you been living under?), however, they have been significantly less efficient than any other year with Patrick Mahomes. So will the pass-happy offense outweigh a team’s poor performance and offensive struggles as of late?
This week, we will continue to see the cover 2 shell implemented successfully with a stronger than average secondary from the Raiders and Mahomes stubbornness to continue to unsuccessfully attack downfield, it will be a reduced workload for Littleton in terms of snaps and plays in the middle of the field and underneath. Here in week 10 expect a down week for Littleton.
Defensive Back, Start – Camyrn Bynum, CB, Minnesota Vikings
I am going to assume most of you are looking at this asking “Who is Camyrn Bynum?”. Well, good sir or madam, Camyrn Bynum is the Vikings 4th round rookie from this last NFL draft and he got a chance last week with Harrison Smith’s positive covid test. The additional kicker here is, Harrison Smith is unvaccinated, so he is highly unlikely to clear the quarantine window in time to start this week and he is going to get a chance for round 2 to continue and impress.
What impression did Bynum make last week in his first NFL start? 9 solo tackles, 3 assisted, 1 INT and when he made that pick, he looked EXPLOSIVE. Now I will caveat this as it was an overtime game and he did have a TO that was, albeit impressive looking, not something we can rely on week-to-week. What we can rely on, his no other safety on this roster played more than 2 defensive snaps outside of Bynum and Xavier Woods. On top of that, Bynum played 48% of his snaps in the high-value spots of DL, box, or the slot.
While Camyrn looks great in an extremely small sample size, take the grain of salt in this is likely only a 1-week play as Smith is a lock to return to the lineup after week 10 and take back his spot and snap count fully. But for week 10, it is full ‘stream’ ahead with Camryn Bynum!
Defensive Back, Sit – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers
Minkah Fitzpatrick continues to deliver solid IDP fantasy production from the ‘deep safety’ position. He is one of those unique talents that can do this. However, this week he has an opponent in the Detroit Lions that will surely limit his overall production.
The Detroit Lions have little to no talent in their WR room to find a way to attack the middle or deep part of the field where Fitzpatrick can produce tackles very well. Even if they did have the talent, they have Mr. Low A-Dot himself, Jared Goff. Jared Goff is dead last in the league at 3.7 air yards per completion (almost a full yard ahead of the next starting QB on the list of Big Ben at 4.4). This combined with a struggling running game for the Lions and the Steelers’ run defense success, we are poised for a very limited number of snaps for the Fitzpatrick, and of those, very few will offer the chance for him to make any plays.
Minkah is a solid talent to still hold on to and roster. I just would look for some other stronger options to play this week with a very negative setup for Minkah.
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