The Pros And Cons Of Jameis Winston (#FantasyFootball)

A ‘Quarterback Guru’, a prodigious talent, and a massive opportunity walked into a bar…

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% ready to crack back into Pros And Cons for the 2019 season, I have missed you too! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations in 2018, I think it’s safe to say we all learned a fair bit and had some fun along the way. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy #DraftSZN will be based on the Pros and Cons of players that the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

Ladies and Gentlemen of the @GoingFor_2 universe, I am here today to introduce you to Week One of this year’s ‘Pros And Cons’ topic of conversation, Mr. Jameis Winston. He has been the focal point of recent times due to things like performance, production, and a litany of off the field issues which has at times the people talking about what has happened to the budding career that has people clamoring for him to now do the proverbial, or get off the pot.

Heres the thing, Winston was uber young when he was drafted in age and mentality and was selected by (now former) Head Coach Lovie Smith First Overall by Tampa in 2015. In doing so, a 20 year old and former 2013 Heisman Trophy winner is thrust into the limelight as the new face of a team that had struggled to find its identity for the best part of a decade in a division that had suffocated them out by either Drew Brees and his Saints, Cam Newton and his Panthers and/or Matt Ryan and his Falcons; of recent seasons two teams in his Division have made the Superbowl and another has reached the NFC Championship and was a non-helmet collision away from heading there too. Tampa needed change and Winston’s arrival beckoned from the phone call everyone craves on Draft Day, and Tampa got the enigmatic, talented and mercurial Jameis Winston.

The problem, at the time – and still to the day, was the baggage that he came with then – yeah, then! Five years later, and the ‘crab legs’ jokes are still alive and comically kicking, but had been brushed aside by the sexual assault incident that he was ‘cleared’ from whilst at College (F.S.U. agreed to pay the female student about a million dollars to settle a lawsuit she filed against the school for its ‘handling’ of her Title IX complaint). And all of that (like how Mixon and Elliott had dealt with their ‘histories’ prior to entering the NFL) would probably be behind him, except he ‘allegedly’ did it again in the back of an Uber by “touching the driver in an inappropriate and sexual manner without her consent” which cost him a suspension. This gave way for Ryan Fitzpatrick to steal time from him and he somewhat produced. And it’s the little things like belittling little girls at school by saying things like “But the ladies, they’re supposed to be silent, polite, gentle. My men, my men (sic) supposed to be strong. I want Y’all to tell me what the third rule of life is: I can do anything I put my mind to” which was on the back of last season’s laughable ‘Eat a W’ which although provides us with a hell of a GIF, which even had Joe Flacco making fun off him, and that had everybody inquiring if he had indeed fallen off his rocker. Winston at times has done extremely questionable things and I don’t know if outside of Tampa where else he would continually get a ‘pass’ for his behavior. Probably Kansas I guess…

But it’s the apologies that he dishes out that bothers me the most. Following the Uber incident he said the following: “It is uncharacteristic of me and I genuinely apologize, in the past 2 1/2 years my life has been filled with experiences, opportunities, and events that have helped me grow, mature and learn, including the fact that I have eliminated alcohol from my life.” Cool. In the span of maybe five years, Winston’s managed to violate and piss off the opposite sex, cost his Franchise a stack of cash and let down the guys he shares a locker room with while costing others their jobs.

Great.

He’s spoken about taking charge. He’s spoken about making changes but then things like this happen in the offseason out of nowhere; footage has come out of Winston allowing a golfer to hit a ball off the top of his head. That’s the face of an NFL franchise letting someone ‘hopefully’ hit a ball off the top of his head and ideally not crushing the back of his skull.

Acts like this may explain the lack of real, momentous contract talk prior to the season start has been quiet. In all facets of Winston’s life, it seems as though the Buccaneers are telling us that he needs to ‘prove it’ that he has changed and turned his life around. What we have heard out of the Tampa camp is the following: we want him to be honest with us about everything (on and off the field). We need him to grow up and be the leader. And we need to know that he has truly changed.  

This year is a big deal.

Winston is in a contract year which for him is great for him because every top Quarterback has been making bank with the massive deals being thrown at them in guaranteed money. And that could be Winston, easily, he has the talent alone to get paid and has at times produced like some of the best in the League and get that guaranteed money like they have. So, to see how good he can really be, in a contract year, they have brought in reinforcements in the form of Bruce Arians who had been retired for a minute but with the chance to have a great young play-caller like Winston is available, Arians must have been licking his chops at this opportunity when it came up. It is said that ‘pressure is a privilege’ and right now Winston has it in spades.

So that is the challenge when you select Winston in Fantasy Football formatting. You’re taking in everything that comes with him. Consider it the ‘Jameis Winston Experience’ from now on. But, where is he going right now? In Redraft leagues, he is currently sitting pretty as the QB13 being selected in the 10th Round (this year has seen him as low as the 12th round and as high as the 9th Round) – which in 12 team Fantasy Leagues is odd to see a team’s second Quarterback selected in the 12th Round but I’d guess if you have taken for example Kyler Murray (currently going as the QB12 off the board in early May) as insurance for a Rookie and potential inconsistencies it makes a bit of sense. But he could be in this scenario the principle target if you follow the late round Quarterback theory to which the 10th round still feels a little high. In 2QB formats, Winston is sitting in and around the 5th Round as the QB12 and worth every bit of investment in that format I believe.

THE PROS AND CONS

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‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: For quarterbacks that started 10 or more games in 2018, Winston had the 7th best 3rd down Completion Percentage with 64.3%.

Winston needs to control the turnovers. Interceptions and fumbles. If he can reduce that then the Buccaneers will be in business. For the most part, it feels like most of the turnovers are coming in later stages of the games when they are chasing and trying to push the ball down the field quickly. At times pressure based decision making has been an issue and the Quarterback guru himself, Bruce Arians, will be looking at investing a lot of time into that. Combined with Ryan Fitzpatrick (14th most Intercepts with 12 in 7 starts) in 2018, Winston (7th most Intercepts with 14 in 9 starts) would ultimately have led the League with 26 Intercepts alone. They combined for 624 passing Attempts so you are looking at an Intercept for every 24 Pass Attempts. They would have had 10 more Intercepts than Ben Roethlisberger who had 16 over 675 Attempts, or an Intercept every 42 Pass Attempts.

‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: In 10 starts, Winston had only 4 games in 2018 with less than 17 Fantasy Points, but also had 4 games with over 25 fantasy points.

And it’s funny to mention Roethlisberger’s name in this article because of his ties to Bruce Arians. Ah yes, the previously mentioned ‘Bruce Arians Effect’. He’s had some of the better passing Quarterbacks in the league including Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and now Jameis Winston. I mean, Winston is as physically built as any of these guys and has spoken of putting on a bit more size to cope with the brutality the NFL pertains. I don’t know how much of that is really needed because Winston can be as slippery and elusive as anyone. But in terms of Fantasy, the previously mentioned players have all thrived. In 2012 as a Rookie with Arians in his ear, Andrew Luck was the QB9 Overall with a 17.3 PPG average. In 2007, Ben Roethlisberger was the QB4 Overall with Arians as his Offensive Coordinator and finished with 17.3 PPG also. Carson Palmer at age 34, in Arizona, was the QB17 in with 13.8 PPG with Arians in 2913 which wasn’t great, however, after an injury-plagued 2014, Palmer bounced back in a big way by finishing as the QB5 Overall at 19.3 PPG. Promising, yet many years removed from an Arians coached offense, Roethlisberger finished 2018 as the Passing Yards leader with monstrous season with 5129 Yards and was the QB3 Overall in Fantasy, and Andrew Luck finished with an incredible 4593 Yards as the QB5 Overall too. Arians seems to have a ‘type’ when it comes to his Quarterbacks of choice; big boys that can ‘sling it’ seem to be the prototype which Winston fits that mold perfectly.

‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: Winston was the QB22 overall despite the lack of games he played, but his average ppg was good to be the QB16 overall. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 5th overall with 25.23 ppg. They combined for 39 TDS, which would have been tied for second overall with Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck.

The Tampa Bay attack sees some personnel turnover as DeSean Jackson is going back (back) to Philly (Philly). Winston and ‘DJax’ struggled at times, to connect and land that big play, and to be fair, Jackson looked better with the Quarterback they let walk so I’m not surprised to see him move on. Adam Humphries, who had the third highest Completion Percentage of Receivers who had over 100 Targets (72.4%), tested Free Agency and got himself paid in joining the Titans.

These key losses, however, will likely see Chris Godwin and (potentially) Justin Watson earn more time on the field with Mike Evans and O.J. Howard returning from season-ending injury will be a big, big addition. Mike Evans is still sitting in and around where he always does in the second round as the WR7, so figuring him out and whether or not to draft him seems like an easy one. But the hype train Chris Godwin is riding has seen his A.D.P rise quicker than an 80-year-old with a blue pill in his front pocket and seeing him as high as the 4.12 this offseason is a little much. Godwin currently is being drafted at the 5.02 or WR20 leap guys like Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd and Allen Robinson (who is somehow at the 7.06 / WR31, but that’s a conversation for another day) who probably have more equity at their current teams and situations to suggest their roles are more concrete than his. O.J. Howard is being grabbed in the fifth round as the TE4 after showing out during the 2018 season, albeit in 10 games only but still had the 6th best average for points per game. But that early? I believe that I would pass there despite being a fan of the talent. But it tells you one thing, Winston will benefit with three Receivers that are really coming into their own.

The more baffling trait that the Buccaneers over recent years have invoked is the mantra of what their run game is or lack thereof. Ronald Jones and his 2018 Rookie Draft 2nd Round Capitol just isn’t that guy it seems; although will be given a clean slate to prove everyone wrong. Peyton Barber is just ‘a guy’ and on a one-year deal who faces Free Agency next year. Bruce Anderson is a guy that Tampa also grabbed as a UDFA out of North Dakota State could be a ‘get late and stash’ kind of talent (but in redraft is that really something you are doing anyway?) who may see work quicker than other Rookies. He isn’t specifically known for having the best hands in the backfield but he is capable with 12-199-3 TDS isn’t anything to sneeze at and – if big Running Backs is something that Bruce Arians has an eye for talent on (Hi, David Johnson) then this could be something to watch and how he gets used as the offseason carries on. A Running Back with pass-catching ability would be a great release valve for Winston, and I would love to see the Buccaneers make a move for say LeSean McCoy or Duke Johnson Jr to further enhance Winston’s weapons.

I also like what they did in the latest Rookie Draft but more specifically who they picked up as Undrafted Free Agents in DaMarkus Lodge from Ole Miss (65-877-4 TDS in 2018) and Anthony Johnson from Buffalo (57-1011-11 TDS in 2018) who are both Wide Receivers this year. Both played with at times inaccurate Quarterbacks that scrambled frequently and I think they could fit what Arians is trying to do. Two names for you to keep an eye on.

So, Tampa has a bad run-game, a poor Defence and three Receivers ready to go with a pipeline of young Rookies coming through and somehow Winston can’t thrive?

SEASON PROJECTION

STATS: ATTEMPTS: 527 / COMPLETION %: 59.99 / COMPLETIONS: 316 / Y.P.C: 12.21 / YARDS: 3858.36 / TDS: 26 / INT: 14 / RUSHING TDS: 2

FINAL FINISH: I think Winston has a solid year and I think he cleans up his act (on the field at least) and has about a typical season to which you would expect. I have him as my QB11, and as mentioned before he is going around the backend QB1 range. I think we can all cut the deck and suggest he can be anywhere from the QB5 (upside towards his ceiling if things break right for him) to the QB16 if he has another one of his ‘up-and-down’ seasons.

GOING FOR 2 DYNASTY VALUE: Highest Rank: Geoff Lambert; @GeoffLambert77 as QB10 / Lowest Rank: Nicholas You; @chalkwhite101 as QB18 (as of 6/17/19). For more Dynasty Consensus Rankings check out: https://goingfor2.com/2019-dynasty-consensus-rankings-dynastyfootball/?fbclid=IwAR3dxletXL0z2jk79H16vg5yzqdvGM4rDJcF7XfnXF-FVYyUO4csSEDE1D8 

SUMMARY AND STANCE

You’re hoping he has grown up.

You’re hoping he plays with aggression, with his wits and smarts and finds a steady consistency. You hope to almighty that the turnovers slow down; Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich are looking for that too. Jason Licht is in demand for it also before he and the Buccaneers brass hand over a potentially life-changing contract. And the beautiful thing is that he is in a team that actually wants him to succeed – there’s no debate who rules the roost – otherwise, they may have thrown more money at Ryan Fitzpatrick this offseason instead of letting him test Free Agency. You’re hoping that he not only lives up to his potential but exceeds it.

I don’t believe Tampa would test a future Free Agent in the Quarterback department next year. I can’t imagine guys like Dak Prescott not getting re-signed and after that, you’re looking at a Quarterback like Jacoby Brissett or maybe an Andy Dalton who could get cut (or traded either way) next offseason if he doesn’t step up this year. Maybe Tampa looks to a Rookie next year with a decent crop of ‘kids’ coming out in Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, or Jake Fromm, but even still, I can’t imagine any of these guys offering more than what Jameis Winston does now or moving forward. I still stand by Winston having a solid season. Winston is a definite candidate to fall into the ‘late-round Quarterback’ field because I promise you half the people in your league will likely avoid him and he will drop, but again depending the size of your league as potential second Quarterback you can take a chance on? Without doubt. And pairing him up with a returning Quarterback from an injury like a Cam Newton if you were to jump on a Quarterback earlier or even say picking a guy up like Jimmy Garoppolo who you may look to later? That sounds like a solid plan too. If you are looking to somewhat stream the position this year he again is also someone who could be a fantastic option if the matchup is right also.

So for me, I feel that Winston falls into the ‘Pros’ for the 2019 season if the price is right. Let’s hope he gets it together and lives up to the potential he clearly has.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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