The Pros And Cons Of Marcus Mariota (#FantasyFootball)

Is Marcus Mariota still the ‘flyin’ Hawaiian’, or is he coming in for a crash landing in 2019?

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% all about the heat – give me all the sweat I don’t care, it still beats Winter. And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks first Pros and Cons for the year, you could have been much, much more critical than that so thanks for being nice! Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy Draft Season will be based on the Pros and Cons of players that the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into your #DraftSZN, future fixtures, and matchups.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

Ladies and Gentlemen of the @GoingFor_2 universe, I am here today to introduce you to Week Two of the ‘Pros And Cons’ topic of conversation, Mr. Marcus Mariota. He has been the focal point of recent times due to things like performance, production, and health (frustrating injuries that occur way too often) which has at times the people talking about what has happened to the budding career that has people clamoring for him to now do the proverbial, or get off the pot. 

Wait… that sounds familiar, where did I say this before?

Heres the thing, Marcus Mariota was uber young when he was drafted in age and mentality and was selected by their then Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt; 2nd Overall in 2015 by the Tennessee Titans. In doing so, the former 2014 Heisman Trophy winner is thrust into the limelight as the new face of a team that had struggled to find its identity for the best part of a decade in a division that had suffocated them out by either Andrew Luck and the Colts, Deshaun Watson and his Texans and now a former Super Bowl M.V.P. and Jaguars latest recruit Nick Foles.

Wait where have I said this before? Jeez, it seems familiar…

Tennessee needed change at the time and it came in the form of the cool, calm and collected Marcus Mariota. What we have heard out of the Titans camp is the following: We like him. We have met his parents and family at Thanksgiving and this 4-year relationship is good. Good, but not as great as other relationships out there look. And instead of buying a ring and building a house on top of the foundation they’ve somewhat set, they’ve decided (the Titans, not Mariota) it may be best right now to stay in separate apartments. Also, the Titans have decided that to help pay their rent that they are going to bring in their ‘fun friend from South Beach’ Ryan Tannehill, a former First Round pick himself via trade this year. You know, just to walk their dog and water the plants. But, don’t worry Marcus, you have nothing to be concerned about, right? In a contract year, they have brought in reinforcements for him to use, and a potential former starting Quarterback as a backup. The pressure is a privilege and right now Mariota has it in spades.

What, I’ve said this before, right?

This year is a big deal. Mariota is in a contract year which for him should be a great thing the way that the Quarterback market has opened up even more so with all the guaranteed money being thrown about (thanks to Kirk Cousins, again). And that could be Mariota at the end of this season if he steps up and executes the way he needs to. We have seen it in fits and spurts all but inconsistently. When he puts it together he has the potential to be a game-breaker that is AS GOOD as any other dual threat Quarterback in the League when he does put it together, just last season he crushed Philadelphia with a 43-30-344-2 TDS along with 46 Yards and a Touchdown himself Rushing. Nearly 400 combined Yards and 3 Touchdowns – yes please, sign us all up for that, take my money! But, how much patience the Titans ultimately have with him if he doesn’t attain that consistency is another thing. It could be Tannehill that steps in if required during the season if his performance doesn’t turn around.

Again that sounds familiar, right?

So that is the challenge when you select Marcus Mariota in 2019. For me, his value fluctuates depending on the League format you play in. Specifically, in Super-Flex and ‘2QB’ leagues where he has his uber-late value currently going as the QB28 in the 11th Round. Redraft leagues are where he has seen the most pushback, however as he is currently the QB30 on the board. In years past it hasn’t been so bleak. In 2018 he was the QB18 taken, the QB7 in 2017, the QB18 in 2016 and the QB22 as a Rookie; again up and down with how the public sees him in Fantasy where we have the literal equivalent of a rollercoaster ride when drafting Mariota. He could also be just a dart throw target at this point if you follow a late round Quarterback theory I guess, anyone between QB20-30 probably is. And you could hypothetically pair him up as a second Quarterback on your roster if you decided to take a guy like Jimmy Garoppolo or Cam Newton who have both been dealing with injuries this offseason. He may also just be Bye Week material or a DFS spot-matchup with the way he is being selected and of how he ‘sometimes’ does and doesn’t perform. But the way it’s looking, he isn’t being Drafted at all. (ADP data provided by fantasyfootballcalculator.com and fantasypros.com as of 6/21/19)

You’re hoping he plays with cunning and wits, speed and consistency. Mike Vrabel and Art Smith are looking for that too. And it feels kind of apt right now to talk about another round of Coaching changes in Tennessee, as this is his 4th variation of Coaching changes at the club. In 2015 it was a combination of Ken Whisenhunt and Jason Michael for only one year as in 2016 and 2017 it was Mike Mularkey and Terry Robiskie. Which then changed to the debut for new Head Coach Mike Vrabel and Offensive Coordinator Matt LaFleur in 2018, and again after only one more year, we now see Art Smith getting promoted to Offensive Coordinator as Matt LaFleur is now the new Head Coach in Green Bay. There is not a lot of consistency within the ranks alone which for the stability of a Franchise, and a young Quarterback, can’t be great to constantly be around.

But, the beautiful thing is that he is in a team that actually wants him to succeed to justify the hirings and firings, the Draft capital and the belief that he can be a ‘Franchise guy’ but there’s now debate if it’s even his roost to rule anymore. You’re hoping that he not only lives up to his potential but finally exceeds it, but more importantly exceeds it consistently. We need to hope that this combination of Coaches helps him along the way for that to happen.

Again, sounds awfully familiar right?

THE PROS AND CONS

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‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: Marcus Mariota has thrown for over 20 Touchdowns in a single season only once (in 2016 with 26), and that he has thrown for less than 15 Touchdowns in a single season twice (2017 with 13 and 2018 with 11). 

The Titans have recruited effectively this offseason along with the returning Delanie Walker when he is cleared from injury. Roger Saffold comes to the Titans from Super Bowl runner-up the L.A. Rams as a Guard which is a great addition considering the team declined to pick up the 5th year option for talented yet oft-injured Jack Conklin which adds to the depth of an impressive front Line. On top of that, somewhat of a breakout candidate in 2018 was Adam Humphries out of Tampa who got himself a decent contract in Tennessee this offseason too, the shifty Slot Receiver will provide a nice outlet for Mariota also. Humphries progression year-over-year improved to a career-high in 2018 with a 105-76-816-5 TD season. Humphries, again mentioned in last weeks article due to his ties with Tampa, had the third highest Completion Rate amongst Wide Receivers who had over 100 Targets (72.4%). Again, this is a good addition to the depth of the Receiver room alongside Taywan Taylor and Tajae Sharpe who have kind of flashed at times but not enough to stick in the lineup consistently.

In this year’s draft, highly touted receiver A.J. Brown fell to the Titans in the Second Round and will be a great compliment opposite Corey Davis. The beauty (to me) in this acquisition is the similarities in the Quarterback that Brown had in College. At Ole Miss, Jordan Ta’amu had his moments (good and bad) but spread the ball around to an offense that had not only Brown but D.K. Metcalf, Dawson Knox, and DaMarkus Lodge – a talented group of Receivers no doubt. On top of that, Ta’amu scrambled, a lot, and still managed to aid Brown in getting an 85-132-6 Touchdown season. (Ironically, Metcalf landed in Seattle with Russell Wilson – a mobile Quarterback, Knox in Buffalo with Josh Allen – a mobile Quarterback, and Lodge landed in Tampa with Jameis Winston – although not as mobile as the above Quarterbacks, he can scramble and make big plays with the best of them. But this is a conversation for another day with the Dynasty guys @GoingFor_2).

‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: Marcus Mariota had a ‘Quarterback Rating’ in the Red Zone of 118.57 as a Rookie in 2015, then 112.64 in 2016, followed by a 98.3 in 2017 and 92.32 in 2018. Each year since he entered the league his ‘Q.B.R.’ become worse in the Red Zone.

Marcus Mariota is a mobile Quarterback, and Rushing Yards for Quarterbacks in fantasy are gold. In 2018, he had his most Attempts and Yards gained with 64-357-2 Touchdowns on the ground and did so in one less game than he has started in previous seasons. This seems weird because it felt like he was hurt, and he was often, it didn’t feel like he ran the ball as much if not more than normal. A concern heading into 2018 was the recruitment of Dion Lewis and having the tandem with Derrick Henry minimalizing Mariota’s further potential breakout as a ‘mobile Quarterback’, but that backfield felt less potent than in previous years when DeMarco Murray was a Titan in 2016 finishing as the RB5 in Half PPR with 1600-plus combined Yards and 12 Touchdowns, for example, tearing the league up as Henry was the ‘backup’ at the time.

Here’s the thing, as much as he feels like he is a Mobile Quarterback, he really didn’t move as much as you’d think compared to other Quarterbacks that finished in the Top 12 in Fantasy Football last season. For example; there are five guys who you could and/or would consider ‘mobile Quarterbacks’ who gained had a better season and did more on the ground that Mariota – who you think wouldn’t have a problem gaining these cheap points with his Rushing ‘upside’. These guys were Pat Mahomes (QB1), Deshaun Watson (QB4), Russell Wilson (QB9), Dak Prescott (QB10), and Cam Newton (QB12). These five finished in the Top 12 ahead of Mariota, who was the QB23 to finish up the last season. Mariota out of this group alone would have Ranked 5th out of (this group of) 6 for Rushing Attempts, 4th out of 6 for Rushing Yards and tied for 4th with Mahomes for Rushing Touchdowns; ahead of only Russell Wilson who had none in an outlier year for him on the ground. Mariota, who has the stigma attached to him for being ‘mobile’, faired middle of the pack to these guys in the group which also highlights how bad he was as a Passer considering the Rushing ability did not boost his Fantasy points much at all in out in 2018. Normally it’s that part of the game that should bail him (and you) out but it did not contribute as much as it has previously. What makes it worse for Mariota is the influx of talent entering the league after him. For example, two Rookies who entered the league out-produced him on the ground in Lamar Jackson (the QB28 in 2018 who started 7 fewer games as a Quarterback than Mariota and had only 17.2 total points fewer) who in half the number of games had more than double the Rushing Attempts with 147-697-5 Touchdowns. Josh Allen (who finished ahead of Mariota as the QB20 in 2018) who had 89-631-8 Touchdowns on the ground alone in 2018. As this has happened, Mitchell Trubisky also proved that he could move with 68-421-3 Touchdowns and finished as the QB15. And add ‘another shrimp on the barbie’ with Kyler Murray coming in to start for Arizona under center, as the Number One Draft Pick this year looks to add Yards on the ground too.

The was an advantage for Drafting Marcus Mariota in Fantasy Football in the past with the Rushing upside to his game, now, although it is still apart of the game it doesn’t set him apart from the pack. In 2015 Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers – all relatively ‘immobile’ Quarterbacks were in the Top 12 in Fantasy that season, so naturally, that is what stood out about Mariota’s game then. This is now 2019, and that is now the upside that many in the league now carry. This to me has forced his appeal back.

‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: Mariota was sacked a career-high 42 times last season, tied for 7th most with Matt Ryan. This is the most he had been sacked since he was a Rookie four years ago with 38 sacks.

Another season has gone and another Offensive Coordinator is lined up for Mariota in 2019. This time it’s a hire from within the Titans coaching tree who was with Mariota when he was originally drafted in 2015 – so there is a fairly good chance that he knows what’s best for Mariota with continuity at the forefront of his progression as a Quarterback. Art Smith was duly promoted up from being the teams Tight Ends coach (2016, 2017, and 2018) and was the Assistant Offensive Line and Tight Ends coach before that in 2015. Ironically, Smith worked on upgrading their ‘Front 5’ and saw his Tight Ends score 6 of Mariota’s 11 Passing Touchdowns in 2018 (Jonnu Smith 3, Luke Stocker 2, MyCole Pruitt 1) – and that was without their top Tight End, Delanie Walker.

In a really good article posted by titansonline.com in February citing an interview with Art Smith, there are a few things that I took away from it: Derrick Henry will have a big role calling him a ‘home-run hitter’ with a rare skill set. That this Offense/Team is in Year 2 of its inception under the Mike Vrabel regime and not in Year 5 of Marcus Mariota. The Offense needs to be more explosive and that needs to translate into points, and that has to happen for them to improve and take a step forward. Along with finishing 27th in Scoring last season they also finished 29th in Passing, and, unsurprisingly as mentioned before Red Zone Efficiency has to improve for all of this to come to fruition.

SEASON PROJECTION

STATS: ATTEMPTS: 457 / COMPLETION %: 64.72 / COMPLETIONS: 296 / Y.P.C: 11.41 / YARDS: 3377.36 / TDS: 19 / INT: 11 / RUSHING ATTEMPTS: 58 / RUSHING YARDS: 308 / RUSHING TDS: 3

FINAL FINISH: I have Mariota, unfortunately, falling behind the dreaded ‘Andy Dalton Line’ as this years QB27. Mariota, as mentioned, does have some upside, but I think if you are lucky he is pushing the QB18 at best to anything further back. I’m trying to be generous, and a near 10 player position jump is as good as it could possibly get.

GOING FOR 2 DYNASTY VALUE: Highest Rank: Mike Kelley; @MikeKelleyDLP as QB20 / Lowest Rank: Nicholas You; @chalkwhite101 and Geoff Lambert; @GeoffLambert77 as QB30 (as of 6/21/19). For more Dynasty Consensus Rankings check out: https://goingfor2.com/2019-dynasty-consensus-rankings-dynastyfootball/?fbclid=IwAR3dxletXL0z2jk79H16vg5yzqdvGM4rDJcF7XfnXF-FVYyUO4csSEDE1D8 

 SUMMARY AND STANCE

A few times during this article I have continually battered the ‘this seems all too familiar’ context and genuinely by design that was thrown in. Most of the things I went over last week, in some sense of fashion about Jameis Winston is applicable to Marcus Mariota. They both are in contract years. They both to an extent have not lived up to their Heisman Trophy-winning expectations. They both have had at times Quarterback competition thrown at them at some point of their careers and both of them need to out-perform their previous four years of work which also includes the copius amounts of Coaching turnovers while they have bother been at the helm, and both have to prove themselves all over again.

It seems all doom and gloom though, right? Ok, he had issues as a Rookie, who doesn’t, however, Mariota has not had a losing record since he debuted (8-7 in 2016, 9-6 in 2017, 7-6 in 2018) and had been to the Playoffs before and had a win too, which included a win at Kansas (which they only did once in 2018 to the L.A. Chargers in December, and twice in the regular 2017 season to Pittsburgh and Buffalo) and a tough loss on the road at New England. He actually looked threatening enough in those games to maybe be a game changer that everyone originally thought he could be.

The Titans have gone out of their way to get a solid backup in Ryan Tannehill and a 2019 Sixth Round pick and received a 2019 Seventh Round pick and a 2020 Fourth Round pick in return. Pennies on the dollar for a team that took Tannehill with their 8th overall pick in the 2012 Draft. And that is the sort of thing that, sadly, could be in Mariota’s future should he not improve his game. Which again, sounds crazy to say considering he hasn’t had a negative Win/Loss record in four years. It just feels kind of underwhelming. The Titans may have a look the Rookie class in 2020 and fellow Hawaiian out of the University of Alabama in Tua Tagovailoa could be at the top of that list. In the end, Mariota has to do more, and I think he has no other choice than to do it other than now. Not doing so could see Mariota otherwise in new colors in 2020.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

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