The Pros And Cons Of Week 11 (#FantasyFootball)

I don’t wanna cause any trouble, but now that the Le’Veon Bell–James Conner issue has been avoided… it’s now time to go and pick up Jaylen Samuels…

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I 100% hope that everyone affected by the fires on the West Coast recovers quickly! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience, the upcoming schedules look good for some and not the others and I’m glad we looked into it, and I am absolutely looking forward to addressing Week 11. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you will be based on the Pros and Cons of players the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into future fixtures for your matchups.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

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Le’Veon Bell held out and there is more than one side of the coin to look at. Actually, there are only two sides of any coin when you look at it…but I digress. While most people looked at the situation as ‘he’s right, the Steelers are wrong’ or vice-versa, your boy over here ‘Mr. Indifferent’ looks at it as ‘they’re both right, they’re both wrong’ kind of way.

He (Le’Veon Bell) is right; he should stand up for what he believes in and right now after being Franchise Tagged ‘twice’ he believes that his body taking more punishment than most and on that team, he deserves to be paid what he feels he should be paid. He is also wrong. Football is more than a brotherhood, it’s about family. From background teams who set up their kit to the staff who set up their meals, to the physical therapists who help prepare each athlete before a game and rehabilitate them afterward, and to the boardroom that makes things function in every other aspect to make sure he can make a living – let alone the fans that pay the big bucks to watch him perform (but you know, not to perform). All of them are a family. And to a fault, he selfishly abandoned his family when their window of success is somewhat closing.

They (the Pittsburgh Steelers) are right; the Running Back position is expendable. DeAngelo Williams had popped up a few times and showed that it isn’t that hard to be a Steelers Running Back by fulfilling the job Bell had whilst he was away from the team due to injury and/or suspension. So why would they pay the overs on a guy they know whose job they can get any recycled player off the street to do? And James Conner has been nothing but sensational, so why go back to what has worked well to what IS working better? They are also wrong; by giving Bell the ‘Kirk Cousins Treatment’ by dating Bell, but never wanting to marry the guy. And when you see your equals like Todd Gurley getting the ring and the rock it’s not Bell’s fault for asking for the same love in return but they won’t even pay for his Uber home at a terrible time in the morning. Oh and by the way, how do they approach James Conner when it’s his time to negotiate a new deal? Can’t imagine that will go well if his production keeps besting Bell’s over the next few years…

Again, to me, they are both in the right and they are both in the wrong. But that shouldn’t stop James Conner from winning you a Fantasy Football Championship now should it…

What’s that?

Did he take a hit to the head last week? Well, that’s not good…concussions for a Running Back are hard to shake off…

Jaylen who? Jaylen Samuels? No, not really sure who he is but who else do they have? Steven Ridley? No thanks, I’ll take the guy I’ve never heard of, cheers!

But before I pick up a guy I have (up until last week) never seen play a snap in the NFL, did you know…

• In 2017 from Weeks 14-16 in Half Point Per Reception Scoring that Le’Veon Bell (2nd), LeSean McCoy (4th), Mark Ingram (6th), Giovani Bernard (7th), Dion Lewis (8th), Jordan Howard (9th), C.J. Anderson (10th), Kenyan Drake (11th), Devonta Freeman (12th), Rod Smith (13th) and Duke Johnson (15th) were all in the Top 15 of Running Backs in those weeks? You know, the Fantasy Football Playoff and Championship Weeks? And this year only Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Alvin Kamara from last years Running Backs in that timespan last year are in this year’s Current Top 15 Running Backs?
• In 2017 from Weeks 14-16 in Half Point Per Reception Scoring that Keelan Cole (2nd), Jarvis Landry (4th), Larry Fitzgerald (7th), Stefon Diggs (10th), Marquise Goodwin (11th), Demaryius Thomas (12th), Sterling Shepard (13th), Tyrell Williams (15th) were all in the Top 15 of Receivers in those weeks? You know, the Fantasy Football Playoff and Championship Weeks? And this year only DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, and Julio Jones were in last years Top 15 amongst Receivers in that timespan that are also in this year’s current Top 15 Wide Receivers? Was there a talent exodus this year that no one told me about?! Where are they all?!
• That during the Fantasy Football Playoff weeks last year Eric Ebron was the Tight End Number 1 with 41 points? The 21 Targets, 11 Receptions, 125 Yards, and 2 Touchdowns saw him have more points than your favorites Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Trey Burton and Garrett Celek who were also in the Top 5 in those weeks? Crazy, right! He is currently on another team and the overall Tight End 3, only 8.3 points behind leader Travis Kelce in Half Point Per Reception? What is this bizarro world?!

The reason why I bring this up is that a lot of the chatter this week has been about picking up, stashing, and handcuffing your leading Running Backs who could be potential league winners. Take Todd Gurley for example. At no point in time is it a good idea to give him 40 touches in Week 16. And in Week 16 they play Arizona at home, who for the life of me I can’t imagine are into having their top players sent out to potentially get hurt in a meaningless game at the end of the season. Gurley in that game in Week 2 earlier this season against Arizona went 3-31 in the air, which is not bad at all, along with 42 Yards on the ground…so 73 total yards, carry the 4, minus the 7 and sub…HE HAD 3 FREAKIN TOUCHDOWNS AS WELL FOR 32.30 FANTASY POINTS!!! They play that team in the Championship Week this year!!! Go and get Malcolm Brown and John Kelly! Now!

That’s why the talk of grabbing the handcuff to your stud is pivotal. And if James Conner, who has been phenomenal this year takes another shot to the head that late into the season the Steelers, I could imagine may put him on ice to see the regular season out and send out Jaylen Samuels out there to get them through the rest of the year.

So think about some good matchups, like Kansas who leak the most Yards Per Game (YPG) to opposition Running Backs who have Seattle in Week 16 in Seattle who are likely looking at grabbing a wildcard slot still. You know, Seattle? The same team that had damn near 300 Yards rushing in Week 10 against the Rams? Yeah, those guys! That could also be another opportunity for a guy like Rashaad Penny to have a game and get more game time while they protect Chris Carson a bit more down the stretch. You know Rashaad Penny? The clear 3rd choice Running Back for the Seahawks? Yeah, go get him! The Bengals are brutal against the run and they see Cleveland, so say hello to Duke Johnson again! Miami has the Jacksonville Jaguars, so maybe pick up the phone and say hello again to Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon and find out if either of them available on the Waiver Wire or via trade, both of which should be cheaper to acquire now that Leonard Fournette is fit and healthy again (sidenote: if you have Fournette go and get one or both of these guys if you can afford to). All these players that we are seemingly steering away from are the guys we should be levitating towards.

Final case and point; Rod Smith in 2017. Remember the ‘will he, won’t he’ get suspended saga that swallowed Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys last year? And the ‘is it Alfred Morris, Darren McFadden or that Rookie Smith kid?’ Yeah, that kid Rod Smith ended up the Running Back 13 between Weeks 14-16 with 46.2 points with 227 Yards and 3 Touchdowns.

These are the guys who can win you your Championship and they just have to sit there, just in case. It’s not hard to do, go and do it. Consider it one less roster decision you have to make this far in the year. It’s more of a blessing when you think about it…

Oh wow, @TheBLeagueSays talking about backup Running Backs and streaky players like Keelan Cole that no one had rostered last year but killed us this year! Yeah, you are a genius. Oh, not really, that’s terrible! Get on with…

THE PROS

Dez love is good love…

If a montage is the number one of all the ‘ages’ then the homage must be the clear number two. I know Dez Bryant was in New Orleans for a minute (maybe even less), but to see a sign of respect from his peers by throwing up the ‘X’ for Touchdowns or a key play was kind of cool. But now that he isn’t playing I feel like the role he was going to inherit was being overblown. I get the Lance Moore / Marques Colston comparisons but there was a guy last year that we all somewhat overlook as the role that I would have thought Dez Bryant would have filled purely because it wasn’t much of a role at all. But finishing the season with the 2017 Saints with a 37-23-364-3 season, a physically intimidating 6’6 and 225lbs. The One! The Only…

Brandon Coleman.

Brandon Coleman is the forgotten man of the Saints 2017 season but he did play a role and he did pop up and make the occasional play. His metrics (height, weight) are similar to Dez Bryant‘s (Bryant is 6’2, 220lbs) and came in on 3rd downs with a 75% completion percentage. A big bodied guy who had limitations that Drew Brees knew how to utilize correctly.

Which now gives us Brandon Marshall (funnily, similarly built to Brandon Coleman at 6’6 and 232lbs – it seems that Sean Payton has a ‘type’), who can now provide that ‘mentor role’ also for the Saints while not going overboard. Marshall whilst in Seattle averaged roughly 3-4 Targets per game which is probably more than it seems considering that Russell Wilson wasn’t really putting the ball out there that much.

Marshall this year has a Touchdown of three end zone Targets in 2018, and if Drew Brees can get that sort of productivity (or something like that) out of him then that may be his best chance of being effective and carving out a role moving forward.

Blake Bortles vs Pittsburgh…

Let’s put this out there in black and white:

• Bortles has 2 wins out of 3 against Pittsburgh. The only loss came at home, where they play this week.
• He has thrown for over 200 yards once in those games and that was the only time he has thrown a TD against the Steelers.
• In those 2 wins, Bortles had less than 15 completions each time.

Not good. 

However…

The Steelers (whilst on a 5-game win streak) have given up an average of 181.75 yards in the air per week over their last month while allowing 73 yards rushing on average during that time. Fairly stout.

But what we didn’t see really coming was Leonard Fournette in his return from injury has more yards in the air than on the ground (56-to-53) with a score in each aspect of the game also. But what has worked in the past for the Jaguars is pounding Fournette against the Steelers who averaged 26.5 Carries per game. In those 2 games, he has had 181 yards rushing with 2 Touchdowns, and 109 yards and 3 Touchdowns. So 5 Touchdowns in two games with an average of 145 yards to go with it?

What? Sign me up? Yeah, I’m into it.

That’s got to be the play for a 3-6 Jaguars team looking to kickstart their season away from the dysfunction that we have seen from them of late. Now, I don’t trust Blake Bortles. I don’t trust him chasing a game. But I do trust Leonard Fournette against the Steelers, and with the Tennessee Titans playing a divisional game against the Colts, and the Jaguars still having a game against each AFC South team between now and Week 17, highlighted by a few favorable matchups against Buffalo, Miami, and Washington, would you be surprised if a win here saw them go on a run? Could they win 6-straight? Stranger things have happened, but if it does it needs to be via their stud Running Back and a few complimentary Receivers making plays when called upon.

James. Freakin’. Conner…

Speaking of a great week, with Leveon Bell not returning this is a huge win for James Conner cementing himself as the lead back for the Steelers moving forward.

That’s great for him!

Until he has to negotiate a contract in 2021 offseason and will go through the same ordeal that his fellow (or former, I don’t know what to refer him as anymore) Le’Veon Bell had this season.

But as we know the Rod Smith’s of the world exists, and while the AFC North is imploding, the Steelers may actually walk this in. And considering the flirt with a concussion this week, if I were a James Conner drafter, I would be doubling down on a team who made DeAngelo Williams a monster in 2015. So…

Jaylen Samuel could be this year’s DeAngelo Williams / Rod Smith. And that’s great for him too!

You have to grab Samuel if you have Conner because their Fantasy Football Playoff schedule is tasty, so double down with Samuel on your bench as the Steelers face Oakland (3rd most Yards conceded on the ground this year with 141 YPG) the Patriots (111.1 YPG) and the Saints in Weeks 16 (the least amount of yards conceded with 80.1 YPG), however are equal ninth with Touchdowns allowed with 9 rushing scores against so far.

If you have space use it wisely, don’t outsmart yourself and get some James Conner insurance.

Hey, @TheBLeagueSays! That’s two Rod Smith references this week! Has the guy got you on a retainer or what?! C’mon, get on with…

THE CONS

Giants, wyd…

Once again, I am a Giants guy – so if this comes across as strong then I’m sorry. But in the words of Rosie Perez from White Men Can’t Jump:

‘Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose. Winning or losing is all one organic mechanism, from which one extracts what one needs.’

New York, what are you doing? You’ve traded guys away, you’re still playing Eli Manning; the tank should be in complete sink mode. What are you doing?! Why are you winning?!?! 

Stop losing to teams with worse records! You can’t catch those teams back up with that decent and respectable effort! You can’t underwork the Raiders or 49ers who you just beat. A morale boost?! What are you doing?!?!

Yeah, sure I’m happy for the players who were excited I just wish they were excited 6 weeks ago to win. But talking about going 8-wins straight? Anyone who talks about winning should be benched! Where’s Geno Smith? Bring him back! Nate Peterman is a Free Agent: sign him up and play him the rest of the year! Jeez, it shouldn’t be that hard to be bad. You were bad while actually trying, this is just insulting. The plan is simple. Lose the next seven games, and protect your star players while blooding Kyle Laulette as much as you can to see if he is worth the chance to start in 2019, or if the Draft is the way to go.

What are you doing?! It’s that simple!

The NFL in Mexico? More like Mexi-No…

Really? A multibillion-dollar league didn’t do the due diligence to know that a sporting event was playing ‘second fiddle’ to a Shakira concert and that the condition of the field would be ok?

Really?

They thought that 10’s of thousands of people jumping, dancing, bumpin’, and grindin’ in the grass of a Shakira concert would leave everything up to standards?

Really?

They wished the stadium and field would be in a decent condition? You know what happens when you wish into one hand and crap into another?

Really?

Someone be fired for this…

I’m back on Philafraudulent…

They can’t run the ball well, the Jay Ajayi/LeGarrette Blount losses from last year may have been understated. They can’t defend the pass just like last year, they’re being exposed in the air. They can’t protect their Quarterback very well either lately, Carson Wentz is not the guy I want getting sacked.

They look like a poor mans Tampa. But without the ‘Fitzmagic’. Or the 40 point, 5 Touchdown a game, games. Pretty much all the fun that Tampa is, Philly isn’t…

The Eagles have dropped 3-games in a row at home and ‘the Linc’ is a place (I feel) that has to be one of the hardest places to walk into as an away team and feel good about your surroundings. But losses at home to Minnesota, Carolina, and Dallas while barely scraping by Indianapolis also shows that something hasn’t been clicking the way it used to. Now a loss to the Saints this weekend isn’t the end of the world as they have three Divisional games in a row with New York and Washington at home and an away trip to Dallas after that in Week 14.

I don’t think Washington will make the Playoffs, they seem to be falling apart, but Dallas? It pains me to say that they looked pretty good in their win last week over Philadelphia and an away win in Atlanta this week mounts the pressure on the Eagles to keep up by pulling a win (an unlikely win) on the road in New Orleans, with the way they aren’t finishing games when they have a lead (remember that Carolina game recently?). I do like Golden Tate this week as slot receivers have been gashing the Saints secondary and in particular P.J. Williams. And I like Zach Ertz every week. But everyone else is too erratic right now to trust.

PROJECTIONS

All projections are for the respective Players ceiling

Blake Bortles – Attempts: 35 / Completion Rate: 62.3% / Completions: 21 / Yards Per Completion: 10.79 / Yards: 226.59 / TDS: 2 

James Conner – Carries: 22 / Yards Per Carry: 4.6 / Yards: 101.2 / TDS: 1 / Targets: 5 / Receptions: 4 / Yards: 34.7 / TDS: 2

Golden Tate – Targets: 8 / Catch Rate: 85% / Receptions: 6.8 / Yards Per Reception: 12.74 / Yards: 86.63 / TDS: 1

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SUMMARY

The easy thing to do is grab the backup of your lead Running Back, have them sit there and hope you never have to think about the worst that could possibly happen. I am one of the few (probably) that has Todd Gurley that also drafted John Kelly, I’d have picked up Malcolm Brown but that isn’t an option as he is already picked up elsewhere. With Melvin Gordon, I have Josh Jackson because, you know, Austin Ekeler is picked up elsewhere. Generally, at this time of the year, this is the route I want to take if I am in contention to make a run in the playoffs.

I know it depends on your roster construction and your scoring system and the depth of your bench and if you’re in contention for a Playoff spot – that’s all great. Go and get the guys you need to give yourself the security to get you through the Playoffs without an issue. And if you aren’t sure on who to get, look for high scoring teams who are playoff bound. Spencer Ware for Kansas, Rex Burkhead for New England, Latavius Murray (who may have been dropped due to Dalvin Cook returning; who could also be a buy-low candidate also), Javorius Allen in Baltimore or even Giovani Bernard in Cincinnati. All of the above are experienced and can all handle a workload. Check to see if they are on rosters (and at least) and flag them as potential adds going forward.

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. Set your lineups accordingly and check out the DFS and Weekly Content all the hard-working staff is pumping out to get you best prepared. Also – download the Going For 2 app, then and rate, review and share with your loved ones. You all deserve it!

You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!

(Stats via statroute.com, espn.com, sharpfootballstats.com)

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