The Pros And Cons Of Week 12 (#Fantasy Football)

Q: Why did the turkey cross the road?

A: It was Thanksgiving Day, and he wanted people to think he was a chicken!

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I’d 100% like to give thanks to you, the readers, for all your feedback and helping this column grow. It wasn’t meant to be more than a preseason conversation piece and has since grown into a weekly article. And on that note, I’d like to also give thanks to @GoingFor_2 and @GeoffLambert77 for the opportunity to get my voice out there with this company, and to @TheBackRowShow and their staff @BarkBackRow, @ArmsBackRow, @KnitBackRow, @FootballNuke, and @HucksBackRow for all your support over the past 9 months by not only giving me a chance to write for them but by giving me my first start (it is the season to give thanks right?) in the Fantasy Football world – to which I am grateful for! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience, Gus Edwards came from out of nowhere and LeGarrette Blount is now relevant again after Kerryon Johnson sprained his knee – remember, it’s time to get those backups! And I am absolutely looking forward to addressing Week 12 with you. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you will be based on the Pros and Cons of players or scenarios the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into future fixtures for your matchups.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

Save up to 50% on licensed team gear at Fanatics.com 

Bam! Cheesy dad joke about Thanksgiving is completed and I nailed it!

Yes, my favorite time of the year like many is here, Thanksgiving. It’s funny, my whole life living on the other side of the world you never really get a feel for what it’s all about. A few times I saw ‘Christmas in July’ parties but that made no sense because there’s no snow where I live and spraying frosting on trees is more of an ordeal than anything. And there are movies about this time of the year but unless you are here and taking in the history of it all then the significance tends to go over your head. Christmas back home is in the middle of summer and Santa wears speedos (sorry for the visual) so getting into the swing of a winter wonderland never correlated any real joy. On top of that my wife’s family is Eastern European and Jewish, so when I moved to America I quickly learned that that wasn’t happening anymore.

So when it comes to the festive season it’s Thanksgiving or bust for me now. And it got off to a shaky start: fish heads, boiled potatoes and a few different types of beets salad with no beer or football at all but instead having family members watching each other ballroom dancing and hitting shots of vodka toasting each other with only a game of snooker in the basement going on.

Let me tell you, it was not what the postcard looked like…

But that has since evolved into turkey, mac and cheese, sweet potato and marshmallow mash, cornbread, greens and for those who are into it (I don’t eat egg or egg products, please don’t hold it against me) eggnog along with different types of pies as far as the eyes can see (which I have learned is called ‘all the fixings’ down here in Dallas) and all the beer and wine as I need to get me through 12 hours family fun, football, and food comas.

Everything as advertised. Perfect.

But, to get to this place of complete happiness, satisfaction, and satiation, I had to go through a few years of brutal turmoil, aggravation, and starvation of not having the same joy that others around me had. I was always on the outside looking in… It would be the equivalent of being a Chicago Bears fan and seeing all the Divisional titles that the Green Bay Packers have won over the past couple of decades and now starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. And with that inner turmoil and current bliss, I can relate my Thanksgiving experiences to a few teams that are being offered gruel and still asking their fanbases for ‘more’. More? Yeah, more! But firstly…

Did you know…

• That so far this season the New Orleans Saints have had six games where they have scored 40 or more points? But did you also know that Atlanta (who they face on a short week) has also scored 30 or more points in five games this year, one of which games was a loss to the Saints earlier this season? So, New Orleans 40, Atlanta 30?
• The last time Chicago was in the playoffs was in 2011 where they lost to Green Bay. It was also the last time when Mitchell Trubisky was 13 years old…
• The last time Dallas lost to Washington on Thanksgiving was in 2012 which funnily enough was the only time in nine appearances that the Redksins have won on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. Washington has just lost their starting Quarterback Alex Smith via breaking his leg this week, so Dallas now face their backup Colt McCoy who is 2-1 against Dallas – but in his only start went 30-25-299-0:1.

“Never too early to plan ahead, especially when it comes to matters of the tum.” — Dev Shah

The ‘Tanking Season’ is in full swing! Unless you are Oakland or the New York Giants who thought of gifting their fans a win a week before Thanksgiving was a good idea (it’s not a good idea, please just get the better Draft position already). And I get it, players don’t want to lose, ever. And fans don’t want their guys to lose, ever. From its purest standpoint still rings true: on any given Sunday…anything can and could happen and that’s what makes it amazing. I don’t ever want to see another 0-16 team season happen again. It’s terrible. But seeing teams like Oakland move on from Khalil Mack (who has helped Chicago’s Defense look incredibly dangerous) and Amari Cooper (who has more than fit in at Dallas already, he looks like he did in his Rookie season) and flat out cutting team captain Bruce Irvin you have to wonder what any player there could possibly be thinking about currently being there, or ever wanting to play there while this coaching staff is in power. It certainly feels like there is no immediate to current future for any of the players really.

“I can’t cook a Thanksgiving dinner. All I can make is cold cereal and maybe toast.” — Charlie Brown

Which is exactly what you get for getting rid of one of the best pass rushers in the league and then claiming a ‘good pass rusher’ is hard to find. Cold cereal and burnt toast for the Raiders brass, who repeatedly sound stupid for making this claim.

The Raiders could get something back for Derek Carr who is under contract until 2023, but that was (at the time) a whopping deal of $70 million guaranteed and he’s not really proven much since his stellar 2016 season. So if this is who he is, yet is still a safer option over let’s say a Jameis Winston (?) perhaps, then he could be worth something somewhere else. They could flat out get rid of every Receiver on their books outside of Jordy Nelson who is contracted until 2020. That doesn’t mean they won’t try and cut or trade him either. I’m just saying he has at least another year for the Raiders, while Jared Cook, Marshawn Lynch, Martavis Bryant, Doug Martin, and Jalen Richard are all free agents in the offseason. In other words; pretty much their entire Offensive weapons.

The only thing guaranteed is (scarily enough) John Gruden, who’ll be likely to chop at more salaries and to hit free agency as hard as possible before the Raiders move to Las Vegas. I can’t see the Raiders winning more than what they should and their softest games come in the Fantasy Football Championship weeks against Cincinnati in Week 15 and Denver in Week 16. Yes, those are their weakest opponents for the rest of the season.

“Once, there was this day where everybody seemed to know they needed each other…This one day when they knew for certain they couldn’t do it alone.” – April Burns

Which rings true in the New York Giants case. Instead of initially moving on from as many players as possible, they decided to shell out nearly $100 million on three players, hoping it would kickstart a veteran Quarterback and an Offense in one of the more demanding Divisions in the NFL. Were they right to do it though? Errrrr, probably not. Not that those players aren’t deserving of getting their cash (more power to them) but it may not have been the right moves or the right time for the Giants to make in hindsight.

They knew that this season, no matter what the outcome would end up being, needed help on the field to ensure last years failures do not repeat ever again and have taken a different route than Oakland. And the hiring of Pat Shurmur to me is a great move, even still after the season they have had. But, instead of blowing their team up, they have blown up their salary cap instead…

Rather than taking a Quarterback (Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen; both would have been perfect fits) and probably ensuring a play-caller for the next 10 years with the Second Pick of the Draft they opted to take on Saquon Barkley, who became the sixth most expensive Running Back (roughly $31 million in guaranteed money) before playing a professional snap in the NFL. General Manager Dave Gettleman also threw a bucket of cash at Left Tackle Nate Solder, who is now the second highest paid Offensive Lineman (roughly $35 million in guaranteed money) in the NFL. On top of all this, The same Franchise then allowed Odell Beckham Jr to hit paydirt by making him the most expensive Wide Receiver (roughly $41 million in guaranteed money) in the NFL. So here we are with a 3-Win team that is paying the overs on a losing season and all the while have ensured that Eli Manning would be the man for another year. 

So. You can look at this in two ways…

1. This is complete and utter mismanagement coupled with poor judgment.
2. They know what they want, and who to target a year later via the Draft or Free Agency.

“Are you honestly comparing going to Thanksgiving dinner at Mrs. Wolowitz’s house to one of the worst tragedies in human history?” – Amy Farrah Fowler. “Yes.” – Sheldon Cooper.

To quickly dissect this – in terms of gross mismanagement; I personally don’t think they actually knew if Eli could get through and succeed in another year but knowing they were going to splash out all this money it was probably a safer bet to roll with Eli Manning than with a Rookie (which we can agree or disagree about until the cows come home), but they went with the known over Davis Webb. And if that is the case their scouting department probably didn’t do their due diligence and probably didn’t know what they actually needed, clearly, as now they have probably had time to assess the Quarterback they did draft in Kyle Lauletta, who you never actually hear about unless he is breaking the law in his car. Probably…

So when it comes to tanking we have one team in Oakland that knows what they have, and want next to none of it and have blown everything up and have an idea (we think, we hope) on what they need moving forward. And on the other hand, we have New York that knows what they want, misjudged what they actually have in Eli Manning and poorly evaluated what they needed most in the Draft. Which adds to another two teams (let’s assume Derek Carr is on the trading block also, we should not be surprised to see him be moved at the end of the season) that are likely looking for a Quarterback next year…

And on top of all of this, they both still try and win games and entertain us while hurting themselves unapologetically…and at times they even sometimes win. And that’s absolutely infuriating.

Really, @TheBLeagueSays… You are going to use one of this countries greatest public holidays to use as a way of getting an article across? Really? Get on with…

THE PROS

Do you feel Lucky, well, do ya?

Remember when everyone was (being polite here) slightly overreacting because Andrew Luck was brought off the field for Jacoby Brissett to attempt a hail mary? Remember the ‘his shoulder is clearly not good, write him off, he can’t throw the long ball’ narrative? Remember when Andrew Luck was doomed, and the Colts mismanaged his health? And they were going to trade him as soon as he was ‘ok’ but we don’t really know if he is really ‘ok’ ala Peyton Manning? Remember how Josh McDaniels shunned the Colts and ran running back to the Patriots and everyone believed it was because Andrew Luck was never going to be ok, ever again, for the rest of eternity, and a day?

Andrew Luck is now 10th in the League behind Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger (to name a few) for total yards with 2769 (276.8 yards per game). At the same time, he is ahead of Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson in this same metric. Andrew Luck also seemed fine to me when he hit T.Y. Hilton for a 68-yard Touchdown and a 156-yard game. He now has an Offensive Line that is dominating every week as Luck has only been sacked 10 times this year which is only one sack less than leader Drew Brees. They now have a more than competent run game with a Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines and have one of the top fantasy scoring Tight Ends this year with Eric Ebron.

The numbers say so much about Andrew Luck. For example, he is currently tied for 7th overall as a Quarterback in Fantasy Football with Mitchell Trubisky whose team recruited big in free agency with Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton while drafting Anthony Miller in the draft where the Colts picked up Ryan Grant and Eric Ebron, both who were discarded from their previous employers. Luck currently holds a 67% Completion Rate along with Pat Mahomes and Jared Goff and they are the only two Quarterbacks with more Touchdowns than Luck… remind me again who the Colts recruited this offseason, please? Only Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Derek Carr hold a better Completion Rate Percentage than Luck too. He does have 9 Interceptions, but so does Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson, while Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes has 10 each too.

In other words, Andrew Luck is in quite the good statistical company in Fantasy Football this year and I only went over the cheap pops of what he has achieved so far. And he looks better now than ever doing it.

It was easier to not run at all…

The Bears Defense this week kept the Minnesota Vikings run game to 17 yards. I had to double, triple and quadruple check that that was the case. Dalvin Cook had 12 yards, Latavius Murray had 5 yards, Kirk Cousins had 5 yards. So technically 17 yards to the Running Back position but Cousins has decent wheels so let’s not discount that too.

The Bears meet Detroit on a short week sans Kerryon Johnson, and see the New York Giants with Saquon Barkley at 4.6 Yards Per Carry (YPC), The Rams with Todd Gurley at 5.0 YPC, the Green Bay Packers with Aaron Jones at 6.4 YPC, and The 49ers with Matt Breida at 5.6 YPC in Week 16 who are as we know all within the top 15 Running Backs (ESPN scoring) so far this year. Chicago is giving up about 77 Yards Per Game to the ground game at a league-leading 3.5 YPC allowed while only giving up two rushing Touchdowns, and remember one of those were to the immortal Nate Peterman.

Who Dat…?

Trequan Smith… Dats Who!

Tilt!

I heard it being said a few weeks back when the calls about Dez Bryant taking Tre’Quan Smith‘s role and snaps was inevitable and coming, but it turned out the Saints will be fine no matter what despite Bryant being put on the Injured Reserve after one day with the team.

And as much as it would’ve been great to see Dez Bryant playing – why can’t we have nice things and just have Smith continue to grow into a better role with Drew Brees instead? In a game against Cincinnati which was a positive matchup, Smith accrued zero Targets despite being on the field most of the time and had everyone freaking out and started dropping Smith as a result. The squeaky wheel ultimately got greased last week in the following round with a blowout smashing against Philadephia lining up a 13-10-157-1 performance.

In games in which Michael Thomas will see the most attention (naturally), Smith gets a few favorable matchups against Atlanta this week and Tampa in Week 14. Understandably he may be the fourth option on the Saints team, but it’s better to be the fourth option there then for Buffalo. Tre’Quan Smith who is trending towards being an upside flex-play is still only 32.3% owned in ESPN and is currently the Wide Receiver 58.

Go and get him!

Go and get the kid that blew up, Andrew Luck and the monsters of Chicago… tough gig you have @TheBLeagueSays! Get on with…

THE CONS

It’s Colt McCoy time!

The original ‘CMC’ is back in the saddle for Washington after a gruesome injury to Alex Smith. And without hesitation, the first thing he did was get Jordan Reed involved and deliver him his first Touchdown since Week 1. Which is kind of cool for Jordan Reed drafters, as times that McCoy has started against Dallas, Reed had a 7-7-40 outing (in 2014) and 4-4-45 (in 2016). So we know that there is rapport, and we know they’ve played together more than anyone else on that roster so this must be a thing, right?

McCoy has 16 wins in 37 appearances with an average of 157 Yards Per Game and now takes on one of the leagues best (and in my opinion underrated) Defences in Dallas. On a short week. On Thanksgiving no less, where I stated earlier the poor results Washington has displayed on this particular day. And following Dallas, they get a few okay matchups at Philadelphia and at home to the Giants while back-to-back away games against Jacksonville and Tennessee (in Weeks 15 and 16, your Fantasy Football Playoff and Championship Rounds) await Washington no less. Now, somehow they are still on top of the NFC East with a 6-4 record and a win over both Dallas and New York already but I still can’t bring myself around to say ‘they’re still in the hunt for the playoffs’. There’s a good chance they won’t win another game this season.

Which adds to another team likely looking for a Quarterback next year…

The talk about moving on Jalen Ramsey last week…

Ha! Yeah! Good one!

Oh, they were half serious about it? Yeah, I’m not…Swerve!

What you thought I was going to bad mouth Jalen Ramsey for no reason? Get out of here the guy is a stud on a team that’s currently struggling because their Quarterback can’t move the ball and their Division got better with Watson and Luck returning from injury. Don’t act like the Jaguars weren’t a 3-13 team in 2016, 5-11 team in 2015 or a 3-13 team in 2014. Last season was the outlier when their Division got remarkably weaker, and their Defense got aggressively stronger. That’s it. It’s clear they are what we always thought they were…

The Jaguars are at 3-7 and have essentially lost this season unless they ‘win out’ and get lucky with opposition results going their way, but they have the same record as Buffalo, both New York teams and Tampa. I guess Cleveland can be thrown in that group also with a 3-6-1 record too. Three of those teams have Rookie Quarterbacks. One team has a two-time Superbowl Winning Quarterback. Another was the youngest Quarterback to win the Heisman trophy.

The other has Blake Bortles…

Wait, so Jacksonville (kind of) improved Blake Bortles‘ deal in the offseason and yet he (Ramsey) is the guy, one of the best at his position in the league they want to (maybe) move on from him? Please… Stop it! And not Bortles? Please… Stop it! Bortles currently has 12 Touchdowns, which is 41% of what Andrew Luck has and the Jaguars poached one of the Colts former Receivers in the offseason in Donte Moncrief and has only one less Interception than Luck. He has over 4000 yards once (and is on track for another sub-4000 yard season) and had a final completion rate percentage over 60% once. To add fuel to this fire the Jaguars have the longest active losing streak in the NFL by dropping 6-games straight, four of which happened while Leonard Fournette was out injured where Jacksonville averaged 11.5 points per game and conceded an average of 28.5 points per game. In the two losses when Fournette came back  (Weeks 9 and 10) they averaged nearly double that total with 21 points per game also and concede less per week with 24.5 points per game. So without a run game, Bortles is fairly useless. But with Fournette playing, it obviously covers up a lot of what Jacksonville’s problems are. Can’t stay on the field long enough to score points, their Defense is on the field longer to concede more points. At this point, clearly, Bortles, not Ramsey is the problem. Why even bring Ramsey into this? Fix the actual problem you have, and go and get a Quarterback that can improve that team moving forward.

Bortles, he’s… he’s not very good.

Which adds to another team likely looking for a Quarterback next year…

I’m never crowing about the Falcons again…

There is a point in time where you write about things over and over again and you tend to notice things that work in your favor, or completely against your word. I have learned for the most part that my assessment of the Atlanta Falcons stance from being 1-4 to 4-4 had (namely this guy) saying that at .500 the Falcons with a terrific schedule could make a hell of a push for the Playoffs.

However… Back-to-back losses to Cleveland (what the hell?!) and Dallas at home (huh?!) puts Atlanta back in the red at 4-6 with a must-win matchup at New Orleans. Now Matt Ryan does relatively well against at New Orleans. He has a high of 413 yards and a low of 254 yards and only put up less than 16 Fantasy points once in the last 10 seasons (12.46 points in 2014).

I think we saw the blueprint of how not to play against the Saints last week as the Eagles run game was not really very good, and the temperature on Tevin Coleman‘s consistency is lukewarm at best. They will have to go through the air and as good as Julio Jones is, he will need all the support he can get.

But a loss and a Seattle win against Carolina this week sees Atlanta’s push for a Wildcard position harder and harder to reach and need to hope that Dallas (who have tie-break win over them) who play a banged up Washington, Minnesota and Green Bay (who faceoff this week also) all flop moving forward.

I’ll go down with this ship. There is just way too much talent, in my opinion, to not get by. But it now comes down to other teams pulling results for anything positive to happen.

PROJECTIONS

All projections are for the respective Players ceiling

Andrew Luck – Attempts; 36 / Completions; 25 / Yards Per Reception; 10.29 / Yards; 257.34 / TDS; 3

Dalvin Cook: Carries: 17 / Yards Per Catch: 4.3 / Yards: 73.1 / TDS: 1 / Targets: 5 / Receptions: 4 / Yards: 30 / TDS: 1

Tre’Quan Smith: Targets: 9 / Catch Rate: 87% / Receptions: 8 / Yards Per Reception: 16.28 / Yards: 130.24 / TDS: 1

Save over 20% on thousands of NFL items at Fanatics.com

SUMMARY

“It’s not too much food. This is what we’ve been training for our whole lives. This is our destiny, this is our finest hour.” — Lorelai Gilmore

I have rattled off a handful of teams who probably, maybe or definitely need a Quarterback change by the end of the year. I could rattle off a few more too. I started this week by talking about a few teams like Oakland and the New York Giants but it could have easily have been Tampa, Jacksonville or Denver. Why not Tennessee, Miami, Dallas or Washington. How about this for food for thought…New England or the L.A. Chargers? Neither Quarterback is getting any younger and neither team has a succession plan in place. That’s 11 teams without any thought who will look at that need to fill. But Oakland who forked out way too much money for a Quarterback who isn’t performing while going through a full rebuild and New York who blew the chance to take a Rookie in an uber-talented Draft class seemed the logical place to start. Both are likely to be leaders in the race for the first Quarterback off the board and both seem rather clueless in their approach.

Decisions makers not knowing any different from the days gone by, glory or not. Like cutting Khalil Mack or taking a Running Back over Quarterback, when the quality of Running Back this year was so deep (see where Phillip Lindsay and Josh Adams were Drafted this year) who are starting Running Backs for their respective teams. Then go back and find how many Quarterbacks are starting for their teams past the Second Round from this years Draft class.

Sometimes people just don’t know that they are getting in their own way. And sometimes people want to eat fish heads, boiled potatoes and beets salad, and never try a sweet potato and marshmallow mash, no matter what the other side looks like.

They’ll never know any better…

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. Set your lineups accordingly and check out the DFS and Weekly Content all the hard-working staff is pumping out to get you best prepared. Also – download the Going For 2 app, then and rate, review and share with your loved ones. You all deserve it!

You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Happy Thanksgiving, Thank you and Enjoy!

 

(stats provided by statroute.com, overthecap.com, spotrac.com, espn.com)

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.