The 2020 season is inching closer by the day, and there are plenty of questions that need to be answered. I’m kicking off my “10 Things to Know” series with the 2020 season as a whole. For those of you who didn’t read my article last year, its a hodgepodge of basic fantasy tips, start/sits, buy low, sell high, and everything in between. Check back each week this season, and I’ll discuss 10 things you’ll need to know for each week.
1. Can Lamar Jackson do it again?
Lamar Jackson took the NFL by storm and led those who bought in early to fantasy championships. His MVP season was one for the history books, as he broke Michael Vick‘s single season QB rushing record and joined him as one of only two QBs to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season. The question is, can he do it all again? Patrick Mahomes showed that you can have regression from an all-time great season and still be one of the best at your position. Mahomes went from averaging 29.5 ppg in 2018 (QB1) to 23.6 ppg (QB6) in 2019. That includes the game he left early with the freak knee cap injury in Week 7 at Denver. He lost roughly a touchdown a game from his average and was still top-6 at the position. Who knows what would have happened if he didn’t get hurt. Even if Jackson doesn’t rush for 1000 yards again, he’s not going to stop running, which helps by giving a safer floor than most QBs can offer. MVP seasons are hard to repeat, especially averaging the 30.11 ppg (QB1) Jackson did in 2019. But with a high floor due to his rushing production, LJax will be just fine this season. He has plenty of weapons as well. His favorite target Mark Andrews is a Pro-Bowl TE, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is finally healthy, and the Ravens added another dynamic weapon in rookie J.K. Dobbins. Jackson has every opportunity to repeat as the QB1. Even if he doesn’t, he will be one of the best fantasy QBs this season.
2. TE is no longer a fantasy wasteland.
There is a clear top tier when it comes to fantasy TEs. George Kittle and Travis Kelce lead the way, with Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz not far behind. In recent years after the top few guys, there hasn’t been much to get excited about. That’s not the case this year, as plenty of guys who have the ability and opportunity to be productive and leap into the upper tiers are available later in drafts. Guys in the middle rounds I like are Hayden Hurst, Jared Cook, and Hunter Henry. A few of my favorite later-round targets are Irv Smith Jr, Jonnu Smith, T.J. Hockenson, and a super deep sleeper I love is Kahale Warring. The point is, TE is finally deep enough that if you miss one of the top guys, there is plenty to be excited about. I prefer to wait on TE, use the draft capital it would take to draft a Kittle or Kelce and use it on RB or WR. Then take a shot on a few guys later in the draft and hopefully one of them hits. There are plenty of options late to make this a viable strategy this season. Don’t reach on TE for and chase production from last year.
3. Don’t buy all the risk with Tyler Higbee.
Speaking of chasing production from last year, beware Tyler Higbee. It happens every year, a guy comes out of nowhere in the fantasy playoffs and has an insane stretch of games, just to see his ADP overinflated the next season. Turns out the hot stretch was just that, a stretch of games, and he can’t keep up that production over a whole season. Damien Williams. Alex Collins. Ty Montgomery. The list goes on and on. For me, that guy this year is Higbee. Do I think he’s talented? Absolutely. Do I think he’s being over-drafted? Absolutely. The past two seasons Higbee has played in 28 games, 24 with Gerald Everett, and 4 without. In those games they both played, Higbee averaged 25 yards, 3 receptions, and 3 targets per game. In the 4 games Higbee was without Everett, Higbee averaged 104 yards, 9 receptions, and 11 targets. Numbers can be twisted to make them say whatever you want, Everett hasn’t been overly productive himself. But there is no doubt that there is a huge difference in production when Everette is on the field for Higbee. Higbee is the 5th or 6th TE off the board with an ADP of 80 according to the NFFC, ahead of guys like Evan Engram (89 ADP), Hunter Henry (95 ADP), Hayden Hurst (111 ADP), and Jared Cook (114 ADP). I’d rather take any of those guys a few rounds later than you have to take Higbee. He’s got the upside, sure, but you’re buying high. I’d rather take a RB or WR in his ADP range with names like A.J. Green, Marquise Brown, Derrius Guice, and Tyler Boyd going around the same place in drafts.
4. Don’t depend on preseason rankings/ADP.
We’re all guilty of drafting based off of preseason ranks at one point or another, and sometimes it comes back to bite us. Saquon Barkley was the consensus #1 preseason pick in 2019. Baker Mayfield was ranked inside the top-5 QBs in numerous places. Lamar Jackson was being drafted as roughly the 19th QB off the board. There is a reason guys are ranked high for a reason, but very rarely do the end of season ranks look anything close to the preseason ranks. Don’t live and die by preseason rankings, get your guys. Do your research, having your own rankings and tiers, and don’t be afraid to buck trends and take who you want. It’s uncomfortable to do, but you will be a much more successful fantasy player if you don’t blindly follow ADP or cookie-cutter ranks.
5. Danny Dimes is being under-drafted.
Daniel Jones was a pleasant surprise for Giants fans and fantasy owners alike, setting Giants rookie records for QBs for passing yards, pass attempts, completions, and most consecutive games with at least one score (10). He certainly had his ups and downs, with 4 games over 30 fantasy points and 4 points under 15 fantasy points. But at no point last season did he have his full array of weapons on the field at the same time. Not once did he have Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Evan Engram all play in a game started by Daniel Jones. With fully healthy weapons, an improved O-Line, and expected 2nd-year growth, Daniel Jones is in a position to outperform his draft position of the 13th QB off the board. The Giants defense will likely be atrocious this year, leading to plenty of opportunities for him to jump into the top 10, and potentially the top 5. Believe it or not, Daniel Jones averaged 20 fantasy ppg, the same as a guy currently being drafted in the top 5 QBs, Kyler Murray.
6. Kyler Murray is being over-drafted.
Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely love Kyler Murray. I think he’s a future top 5 fantasy QB, but I fear this is Baker Mayfield all over again. Number 1 overall pick shows promise, adds one of the top WR in the game (DeAndre Hopkins), and it’s automatically assumed everything clicks and he’s vaulted to the top of the QB ranks. Murray is currently going as the third QB off the board, ahead of Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson. There is no way on God’s green earth I would take Murray ahead of those three. As we saw a perfect example with Odell Beckham last year, it takes time for a WR and QB to build chemistry, and for a WR to learn a new offensive system. That will likely be amplified with Covid making it difficult for players to work out together in person. Murray is going to be a star, but he’s being drafted like he already is one. Let someone else take the risk.
7. Process over results.
This is a pretty basic fantasy concept, but there are plenty of new fantasy owners as well as veterans who beat themselves up for benching a guy who goes off. There is nothing more frustrating than agonizing over a start/sit decision, looking at all the facts, and making the logical decision of starting Jarvis Landry vs Arizona and get five catches for 23 yards just to see the likes of Breshad Perriman go for three catches, 113 yards, and three touchdowns on your bench. Perriman was one of the top receivers in Week 15 of 2019, yet was likely only started in the deepest of leagues. Sometimes the right decision yields the wrong results, but that doesn’t mean you made the wrong call. Once you find a process that works for you (someones ranks you trust, match-ups you pay attention to, some combination of those among other things) stick with it, you’ll make the right decision more often than not.
8. A Bulldog Back in the ATL.
Todd Gurley heads back to his college stomping grounds after signing with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason. If his knee can hold up, he’s in line for a huge workload in a backfield he all but has to himself. Ito Smith and Brian Hill proved last season they are nothing special. The only thing that can hold Gurley back is his health. Coming off the board as about the 15th RB taken, he could easily wind up in the top 10, and if his barking knee doesn’t bother him this season, he still has the upside to be the RB1. I would easily take him over RB’s going in the same range such as Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, and Le’Veon Bell. He’s the type of RB2 that can push your over the top if he returns to form and jumps back into the RB1 discussion.
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9. Fade Aaron Jones
There has been a #freeaaronjones movement over the past few seasons, and for good reason. When he has the backfield to himself, few can match his production. The problem is, Green Bay likes a committee backfield, and when they were both healthy he virtually split the backfield with Jamaal Williams. From 2017-2019 Jones has played in 38 games, 4 without Williams. In those 4 games, Jones averages 39 more rushing yards (94 to 55), 7 more rushing attempts (18 to 11), 15 more reception yards (32 to 17), 3 more targets (6 to 3), contributing to a 9 ppg difference when Jones is the bellcow (23 to 14). Green Bay also used a 2nd round pick on RB A. J. Dillon, and he’s a bruising back that will likely steal some goal-line touches. Teams don’t use high draft capital on RBs to not use them, so, likely, his arrival will also complicate things even further. He’s also due for some negative TD regression, there are too many question marks for me to take him at his current ADP of the 9th RB off the board. Let someone else deal with the headache.
10. Covid-19’s impact on the season.
The reality of it all is we simply don’t know what this season will look like. With the pandemic going on, all of our lives have been so unpredictable, who knows what kind of season we have (if we have one at all). As a commissioner for many leagues, I stress that we all need to be patient, be understanding, and tweak some rules to make things a little smoother. I’m already in favor of unlimited IR spots before all this, but I suggest at least adding a few Covid specific IR spots for when players start testing positive during the season. I’d also add a bench spot or two to help with team depth, and even consider allowing “emergency pickups” in leagues that only run waiver pickups overnight, in the case of a player being a late inactive due to Covid. Talk it over with your league, open up a dialog, and see what the league as a whole feels. One thing I cannot stress enough, if a player you have on your fantasy team tests positive and hurts your fantasy team, DO NOT TAG THE PLAYER ON TWITTER COMPLAINING! Maybe say a prayer for the guy or tag him wishing well instead. No matter if they are a professional athlete or your average Joe, anyone testing positive for this virus is a scary proposition. The last thing they need a Twitter troll harassing them.
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