FOOTBALL IS BACK! I’m returning this year with my “10 Things to Know” weekly article. It’s a mixture of basic fantasy advice, some start/sits, buy low, sell high, and everything in between. I’ll also be doing a live show each Thursday from 7 pm-8 pm with @EagleDanFF called “War Room Live”, where we answer viewer questions, discuss this article more in-depth (it will usually come out on Thursdays), and much more. Tune in and check us out!
1. Welcome to Tom-pa Bay.
The already loaded Tampa Bay offense is poised to be one of the most explosive in the NFL this season, as Tom Brady takes over at Quarterback, his buddy Rob Gronkowski came out of retirement, and they signed recently cut Leonard Fournette after drafting Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round. While I do think that the Buccaneers offense will be one of the best in the league, it may take a few weeks before this offense reaches their full potential. This will be the first time that Brady, Gronk, and Fournette play in Bruce Arians’ offense (after an off-season limited by Covid), Mike Evans is bouncing between doubtful and questionable due to a hamstring injury, and the New Orleans Saints boast one of the top defenses in the league. I expect sloppy football Week 1, and we need temper expectations for this offense at the beginning of the season. If Evans is out, don’t expect Chris Godwin to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore. Godwin will get a boost in targets and be a better play in a tough match-up.
2. Fire Up All Your Colts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are tanking for Trevor, and they’ve dismantled a defense that was once one of the most feared fantasy match-ups in the NFL. I fully expect everyone on the Colts to produce, especially both RBs Jonathon Taylor and Marlon Mack. There is some fear that this game could get out of hand rather quickly and the Colts could choose to run the ball most of the game, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. With a limited off-season and Phillip Rivers still getting comfortable in a new offense, I see the Rivers using this game as an opportunity to build chemistry with his receivers and to show that he still has it. Rivers is a rock-solid QB2 in Superflex leagues. I’d start Taylor as an RB2 and Mack at flex in deeper leagues. T.Y. Hilton is a borderline WR2 with a high ceiling but also a low floor. Jack Doyle is a worthy start at TE as it’s going to be interesting to see if Rivers leans on him as he traditionally has relied heavily on the tight end.
3. Set Your Lineup According to Your Players Schedules.
It’s a simple exercise that could make or break your week. Once you settle on who’s going to be in your starting lineup, make sure you go through and adjust your roster based on the player’s start times. You always want to save your flex or Superflex spots for those who’s games start the latest. This week is a perfect example. With Mike Evans playing in the 4 o’clock game and being questionable at best to play, he’s someone you want to put in the flex slot. That way, if he is inactive, you can replace him with any position. Always take Thursday Night Players out of the flex, and always put the latest scheduled players into the flex. It gives you the most options in case of a surprise inactive or a player you’re unsure will be on the field.
4. Will a COVID Offseason affect the Rookies?
The narrative that was pushed all off-season is that rookies will start slower this year than most seasons since the off-season was severely impacted by Covid. Thursday Night proved that although some may struggle with certain aspects (Rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire went 0-for-6 with goal-line touches), it may not be as big of a problem as anticipated. Will there be some impact? Of course. But I think it will affect the borderline players were later round picks or undrafted free agents that needed those pre-season games and training camp reps to make an impact and get the feel for the game. I think the high profile rookies will be just fine, and CEH started that trend off to the tune of 19.8 PPR points. Time will tell if the others follow suit.
5. Plenty of Scoring Expected in Atlanta.Â
Atlanta has an offense that can score on just about anyone, as well as of the league’s worst secondaries. It’s a similar situation in Seattle, where Russell Wilson and company can put up points, but they no longer boast the Legion of Boom on defense. Last Atlanta gave up 3918 passing yards and 28 passing yards through the air. The replaced CB Desmond Trufant with rookie AJ Terrell out of Clemson, but that won’t be enough to stop Mr. Unlimited. Both Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are locked in as WR2’s who could both wind up as WR1’s this week. Julio Jones is locked in as a WR1 as always, and Calvin Ridley has some blow-up potential if this game becomes a shoot-out. I’m shying away from the Seattle backfield, but Todd Gurley is someone I’d start with confidence this week as an RB2 with RB1 potential.
6. How will touches be distributed in Denver, Buffalo, Tampa, and Green Bay?
There are no words that give fantasy managers nightmares quite like the dreaded “Running Back by committee”. Four backfields that we still have no idea what the distribution of touches will be are in Denver, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay. There have been reports all off-season that Zack Moss has made quite the impact on the coaching staff, but Singletary produced on limited touches last season. Denver spent a lot of money on Melvin Gordon, but he’s been outplayed by Phillip Lindsay in camp. After talking up Ronald Jones all offseason, Tampa Bay signs Leonard Fournette right before the start of the season. Green Bay may wind up with a full blow three-headed monster, as Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams already split backfield touches nearly 50/50 last season, and the Packers added rookie A.J. Dillon in the second round. With no-preseason games and limited training camps, we have NO IDEA what’s going to happen in these backfields. You can’t rely on any of these guys in full confidence until we see what the teams have in mind in true game action. You’re taking a gamble by starting any of these guys, even Jones with the fear Dillion could be a TD vulture. If you have viable options, I’m looking elsewhere until we get a better idea of how things shake out. Â
7. Get Preston Williams before its too late.Â
Devante Parker’s breakout last season has everyone salivating at the idea of a Tua Tagovailoa to Parker connection. Having Ryan Fitzpatrick under center slinging the ball as he keeps the seat warm for Tua is just as good for Miami pass catchers, but the Dolphins wide receiver I’ve targeted all offseason is Preston Williams. I expect him to be the WR1 on this team by seasons end, and the window is still open to acquire him. Preston Williams was on his way to a breakout season last year, where he scored double digits in five of his eight games. He was having his best game before going down with a torn ACL in Week 9 with 5 catches for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns. It may take some time to knock the rust off and Williams may start off the season a little slow. But he’s someone that I am targeting on any team I don’t already have him. Get Williams before its too late.
8. Remember The Name Laviska Shenault Jr.Â
Although Jacksonville’s defense will be abysmal, there is plenty to like on the offensive side for fantasy. A terrible defense will lead to plenty of garbage time, and garbage time counts just the same. Gardner Minshew has DJ Chark and……..that’s about it. I fully expect Laviska Shenault Jr to be someone that will be a fantasy darling by the end of the season. He’s got the ability to play all over the field, and he will take snaps in the backfield as well as at wide receiver. It may take some time before he’s fully entrenched in this offense, but he’s a Swiss army knife on a team that is severely lacking playmakers. I’m stashing Shenault on as many benches as possible. He’ll pay off before the season ends.
9. Pump The Brakes on Antonio Gibson
The Washington backfield has been one that has gone from a huge jumbled mess to a slightly-less jumbled mess. The release of both Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson opened up the door for uber-hyped rookie Antonio Gibson to potentially take control of this backfield. But we still don’t know how the touches will shake out in this backfield, as J.D. McKissic, Peyton Barber, and Bryce Love are all still in town. Washington likely won’t have many positive game scripts for the running back position as well, and Gibson only had 33 rushes and 77 total touches in his entire college career. So although Head Coach Ron Rivera compared him to Christian McCaffrey, it’s time to throw some water on the flames of passion coming from Gibson truthers. He’s got a sky-high potential, but right now it’s still just potential. I’m not plugging him into my lineups outside of a flex spot in deeper leagues until we get some clarity in regards to how the work in the Washington backfield will distribute the touches.
10. In a COVID Influence Season, Be Flexible.
I’m normally one that thinks rules should not be changed in the middle of the season. As someone who has been the commissioner of my home league and multiple other leagues for going on close to 20 years, I understand the importance of being fair, unbiased, and consistent. However, this season is unlike anything we’ve ever experienced (and hopefully the only one we will ever have to deal with anything like this). We’re all going to have to realize that there are going to be problems that emerge that we just can’t plan for and can’t see coming. We don’t know this season will look like when it’s all said and done. We all need to be as flexible as possible to do our best to not have Covid ruin fantasy football. If something has to be tweaked mid-season, as long as it’s fair and unbiased, this is the season to do it.
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