What an exciting Week 1 it was! A few upsets, a few surprises, and plenty to learn to take into the rest of the fantasy season. I’ve got 10 things for Week 2 that will help you get a leg up for this week and beyond. Don’t forget to check me and @EagleDanFF out on “War Room Live” every Thursday night from 7-8 pm easter. We answer viewer questions, discuss this article more in-depth, Dan’s rookie rankings, and much more. Tune in and check us out!
1. Don’t Overreact to Week 1.
It’s a tale as old as time, players have either an amazing or awful Week 1. Fantasy managers act on an extremely small sample size, just to regret it later in the season. The top 10 wide receivers Week 1 of 2019 included WR1 Sammy Watkins, WR2 DeSean Jackson, WR3 John Ross, WR7 Phillip Dorsett, and WR8 Larry Fitzgerald. Wide receivers who finished outside the top 30 Week 1 last year include WR31 Chris Godwin, WR33 Kenny Golladay, WR 39 AJ Brown, WR40 D.K. Metcalf, and WR 49 Devante Parker. I’m not saying completely disregard what happened in Week 1. But trust your process, if there is a guy you believed in, don’t give up after one week. Don’t put too much stock in a single game, especially in a year like this where Covid impacted the offseason. Take a deep breath, relax, and don’t give away guys like Austin Ekeler and Dak Prescott for pennies on the dollar out of frustration. Take advantage of those who are panicking and see if you can trade for someone at a steep discount. Check the waiver wire too. Often players hastily dropped in the first few weeks turn out to be season-long gold.
2. Be wary of Aaron Rodgers.Â
Yes, Aaron Rodgers looked like his vintage “discount double-check” self in Week 1 against the Vikings. Rodgers threw for 364 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. People easily forget that A-A-Ron had some blow-up games last year too against weaker secondaries. Even though he had a down year compared to his standards, he had six games over 20 points and three games over 30 points, including a monster Week 7 performance against Oakland where Rodgers threw for 429 yards and five touchdowns. The Vikings were a middle of the road secondary last year and lost their starting cornerback duo of the past three years in Xavier Rhodes (released) and Trae Waynes (Free Agency). If Week 1 is any indication, they will be a match-up to target in fantasy for opposing passing offenses. Is it possible that the old Aaron Rodgers is back? Sure. But I’m not buying it just yet. I’d try to sell high if someone is a believer. I’d take Carson Wentz for Aaron Rodgers straight up any day of the week.Â
3. Parris Campbell may be breaking out.
Fantasy managers are an impatient bunch, and after the way the historic 2014 rookie class of Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and company produced right out of the gate, we got spoiled. Too often rookie wide receivers are labeled as busts if they don’t produce right away, but it generally takes a few years to get used to the pro game to produce regularly. For those who have played fantasy long enough, the theory used to be target third-year wide receivers for breakouts. Parris Campbell was a hyped-up rookie who disappointed last year thanks to a combination of injuries and having to deal with Jacoby Brissett as his quarterback. With Phillip Rivers in town and taking a liking to Campbell, if he’s able to stay healthy Campbell very well may break out. Week 1 he was tied with TY Hilton for the team-high in targets (9) and had 6 catches for a team-high 71 yards. At this point in his career Rivers is more likely to target a slot receiver on intermediate routes than chucking it downfield, which is just one more thing in favor of Campbell. He’s got game-breaking speed and a couple of fantastic match-ups coming up (MIN Week 2, NYJ Week 3). Now’s the time to acquire Campbell, if it’s not too late already.Â
4. Michael Thomas to miss multiple weeks.
The only thing worse than getting a bust of a day from Michael Thomas in Week 1 was to see him get injured on an all but meaningless play when the game was in hand. Initial reports said Thomas was going to play through the injury, but it is worse than originally predicted and he’s going to miss “multiple weeks”. It’s a downgrade for Drew Brees, who loses his top weapon and one of the best wide receivers in the league. Emanuel Sanders gets a bump up in value, and Jared Cook does as well. Both will absorb some extra targets, with Sanders bumping from WR3/Flex value to a solid WR2. Cook goes from a back end TE1 start to someone who has a safe floor to go along with his high ceiling. I’d roll with Cook as my tight end with confidence as long Thomas is out. Kamara’s value is virtually the same. He may pick up a few extra targets, but defenses will also be able to key in on him more without the threat of Thomas opening things up for him. This not only puts a damper on Thomas’s short term value, but he could take a while to get back to full strength. A similar injury took Saquon Barkley almost all season to recover from, he didn’t perform like his normal self until the last few weeks of the season. If Thomas rushes back before its fully healed, he could have the same issue.Â
5. Welcome to the Jonathan Taylor show. Â
The only thing that kept rookie running back Jonathan Taylor from being drafted at the back end of the first round or beginning of the second round as he was expected to share the backfield with both Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. Now that Mack is out for the year with a ruptured Achilles, Taylor has the early-down work all to himself and also proved that he’s a capable pass catcher with 6 receptions for 67 yards in Week 1. Frank Reich has already announced Taylor as the starter, and the sky is the limit for him. Hines will be a part of this offense, but Taylor was highly regarded coming out of Wisconsin as potentially the best rookie running in this class. Hines will be a solid RB2 in PPR leagues, but Taylor has the talent to be a top 10 fantasy RB this season. Try to trade for him before those who have Taylor on their team realizes what they have.Â
6. Don’t Worry About Nick Chubb.Â
A lot has been said about Nick Chubb’s value since Kareem Hunt came back from suspension. Yes, he wasn’t as productive last year, averaging 6 fewer points a game with Hunt in the lineup. But Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the NFL and a capable pass-catcher as well. At the start of the game Week 1 against Baltimore Chubb looked great, averaged 6 yards a carry, and even lined up at receiver. The game got out of hand so quickly the Browns were forced to play catch up, a scenario that favors Hunt. Chubb didn’t play at all in the fourth quarter, and I can’t help to think that playing on Thursday Night Football had something to do with it. I don’t have any hard evidence to back this up, but why would the Browns give Chubb meaningless carries in a game that was already out of reach when they have a short turnaround playing the Bengals in a very winnable game. Its a great matchup and both Hunt and Chubb can produce. If Chubb disappears for stretches again has another rough game, it may be time to start worrying. But don’t overreact to one game, Chubb is still one of the best running backs in the league.Â
7. Tua Time may come sooner than anticipated.Â
The hope for the Dolphins was Ryan Fitzpatrick would produce decently enough to keep the seat warm for Tua Tagovailoa to basically “red shirt” his rookie season to fully heal from the devastating hip injury he suffered his final season at Alabama. But after an abysmal performance in Week 1 against the Patriots, the chants for Tua are already starting. Fitzpatrick only threw for 191 passing yards and threw three interceptions while not throwing a single touchdown. The expectations aren’t too high for the Dolphins this season, so there wasn’t initially a rush for Tua to start. But if Fitzpatrick can’t muster up some of his classic Fitzmagic, Miami may be left no other choice than to turn the team over to Tagovailoa.Â
8. It’s time to worry about Drew LockÂ
After Denver drafted Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler to go along with Courland Sutton and Noah Fant, it’s undeniable that John Elway is doing his best to give Drew Lock all the weapons he needs to succeed. But after throwing for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 14 last year, Lock hasn’t had a single game with multiple touchdowns and only had one game of over 200 passing yards (208 yards on 40 attempts in Week 15). Lock was a popular sleeper this off-season, but I still don’t buy it. Outside of his big game Week 14 of last year, he hasn’t done much of anything, and he’s somebody I’m willing to be wrong on. You can’t trust him until he puts a string of multiple productive starts together. With the weapons he has, he can have a big game. But his floor is rock bottom and can kill your week if started even in super-flex leagues. He needs to prove it before he goes anywhere near starting lineups.Â
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9. Philly had a rough Week 1, but help is on the way.Â
Philadelphia was upset by the Washington Football team in Week 1 thanks to a ferocious pass rush that sacked Carson Wentz 8 times. The banged-up Eagles offensive line was without right tackle Lane Johnson Week 1, but he and running back Miles Sanders are expected back in Week 2. DeSean Jackson was also on the sideline for a long stretch and was apparently on an unannounced snap count and head coach Doug Pederson has already announced it will continue to go up. Wentz has too much talent and too many weapons (including Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert, and Zach Ertz) to be this bad. With the reinforcements on the way this week, I expect the Eagles to get back on track in Week 2.
10. Miller Time in Tampa Bay?Â
Tom Brady has always loved having a speedy possession receiver to rely on, and he favored Scott Miller in his first game as a Buccaneer. It was reported all offseason that Brady and Miller showed chemistry in training camp, and it showed Week 1. Miller caught five passes on six targets for 72 yards and also rushed once for six yards. Mike Evans is still recovering from a hamstring injury, and Chris Godwin’s status for this week is up in the air after being placed in concussion protocol on September 16th. The Panthers have a bad defense with a burnable secondary, Miller is someone who could produce in PPR leagues no matter if Godwin plays or not. If Godwin is out, Miller goes from a flex play to a WR3 who has some sneaky upside.
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