1. Denver run game will shine on Thursday Night.Â
Last week I recommended starting Carlos Hyde against an abysmal Kansas City rush defense. Hyde delivered by rushing for 116 yards and a TD, chipping in a catch for 14 yards. Hyde joined Mark Ingram, Kerryon Johnson, and Marlon Mack rushing for at least 100 yards and scoring at least 15 points (PPR) in the previous three weeks. I expect the trend to continue this week with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, who has formed a productive RB tandem in Denver. Lindsay has been the better of the two, rushing for 397 yards and 4 TDs on 84 attempts to Freeman’s 284 yards on 66 attempts, with Freeman still searching for his first TD of the season. The Chiefs give up the third-most rushing yards per game (161.8) and have given up the second-most TDs on the ground (8). The Broncos will likely try to slow the game down and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible on Thursday Night, leading both RBs to be productive options. Start Linsday as an RB2 with upside, and Freeman as a rock-solid flex. Don’t be surprised if both have great games.
2. Buy Devin Singletary before its too late (hint: this week).
Before a hamstring injury caused Devin Singletary to miss three games, he was well on his way to establishing himself in the Bills offense. Even though Frank Gore is entrenched as the starter, Singletary was getting on the field, playing in 51.5 percent of the offensive snaps. Despite only getting a combined 10 carries in two games, Singletary was still able to score double-digit points (PPR), thanks to five receptions for 28 yards in Week 1, and scoring a TD in Week 2. Gore is immortal and the first and second down grinder, but Singletary is more explosive. Gore has the better floor but the ceiling for Singletary much higher, and the match-up this week couldn’t be better. The Dolphins are giving up the second-most rushing yards per game (169.6), tied for the third-most rushing TDs allowed (7), and is one of the best fantasy match-ups for opposing running backs. Singletary is producing on limited touches, and if the Bills decide to give him more work as the season progresses, he could be a fantasy force. I’m firing him us as a flex without hesitation, and potentially an RB2 as a bye week replacement. Â
3. The Packers backfield is going to be a headache.
I faded Aaron Jones everywhere this year. Not because I don’t believe in the talent, but because the Packers are insistent on using a running-back-by-committee approach with Jones and Jamaal Williams. When given the touches, Jones has shown he’s a stud. Williams missed Week 5 due to an injury sustained the previous week versus the Eagles, and Jones had an absolute monster day. Jones scored 48 points (PPR) on 107 rushing yards, 4 TDs, and chipped in 7 receptions for 75 yards. With injuries piling up in the receiving corps and the defense proving to be formidable, the Packers could be looking to slow things down and use the running game to hide the missing production through the air. Both Jones and Williams both have some monster games left in them, the problem is knowing what game will be a Jones game and what game will be a Williams game. Both fall more into the flex with upside range versus the high-end RB2 Jones has flirted with the past few weeks with Williams hurt. They will likely find it hard to find any running lanes this week against a 49ers defense that is top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game (87.2) and only allowed one rushing TD this season.
4. Welcome back Danny Dimes.
Although Daniel Jones hasn’t played well since his first start against Tampa Bay, things are looking up this week. The Giants are getting some weapons back, with Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram both expected to return from injury. Sterling Shepard‘s availability is up in the air, but Golden Tate impressed last week with a 22 point (PPR) showing last week against the Patriots. The match-up couldn’t be any better for Jones and company, even with Patrick Peterson returning from suspension this week. The Cardinals defense is bottom five in yards per game (414), total points allowed (171), and the Giants defense isn’t much better, ranking sixth-worst in points allowed (160) and fifth-worst in yards per game (412.3). With the Arizona offense starting to get hot and two terrible defenses, there is potential for a shootout. Danny Dimes is a back end QB1 this week and an excellent QB2 in Superflex/2QB leagues.
5. Don’t Forget about Christian Kirk.Â
If Christian Kirk can play this week, he’s a solid WR2 play with upside. Kliff Kingsbury recently said Kirk needs to be 100 percent to play, so there is a solid chance he misses this juicy match-up with the New York Football Giants. However, Kirk is close to returning, and someone I recommend looking to acquire everywhere possible. Kirk was tied with Larry Fitzgerald for the lead in targets for the Cardinals with 31 through the first three games this season, before getting hurt Week 4 against the Seahawks. Kirk trailed Fitzgerald by 12 points (PPR) through those games (54 to 42), which can be accounted for by the two TDs Fitzgerald had to Kirks zero. Kirk can be found on many waiver wires and acquired cheaply from owners who are growing frustrated waiting for him to get healthy. The Cardinals offense is starting to hit its stride, Kirk is one of my favorite buy lows at this point in the season. If he plays this week, start him as a back end WR2 with upside.
6. Take a shot on DeVante Parker.
With nothing to play for this season other than tanking for Tua, you would think the Dolphins would want to start Josh Rosen every week. It’s a literal no-lose situation. If he plays well, they have their potential QB of the future and can use the high 2020 draft pick elsewhere. If Rosen stinks (SPOILER ALERT: he does), they lose possibly every game, get the #1 overall pick, and draft a QB in the lauded 2020 class. But for some reason, the Dolphins are going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, and although it doesn’t make much sense for Miami, it does bode well for the (don’t laugh) DeVante Parker. Fitzmagic likes to throw the ball deep, and Parker leads the team in air yards with 550. Parker caught a TD from Fitzpatrick with six seconds left in the game versus the Redskins, and lead the team in targets (14) in Miami’s first two games where Fitzpatrick started. Parker seems to be the go-to guy for Fitzpatrick, although this week will be a tough match-up against the Bills. With the Dolphins likely playing from behind in every game this year, there is room for Parker to be a flex play as long as Fitzpatrick is under center. I would only start Parker in the deepest of leagues this week, but he’s someone I am stashing on the bench to see if the connection continues.
7. Josh Jacobs will run all over the Packers.
The Raiders have had an interesting season, to say the least. But even with all the Antonio Brown drama, the Raiders are somehow in second place in the AFC West. A big reason for that is the success of rookie running back Josh Jacobs, who is averaging 15.2 points per game (PPR) and is coming off a dominant game against the vaunted Bears defense. Jacobs rushed for 123 yards, two TDs, and added three catches for 20 yards in a Week 5 game across the pond. Jacobs has a fantastic match-up, facing a Packers run defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed per game (124.5), tied for the third-most rushing TDs allowed (7), and given up double-digit points to opposing running backs in every game this season. That includes monster games from Dalvin Cook (27), Phillip Lindsay (28), and Jordan Howard (31). Jacobs is getting over half of the offensive snaps at running back (57.1) for the Raiders and is a top-10 option this week. Start him with confidence.
8. The Jacksonville offense will bounce back.
The legend of Gardner Minshew II took a hit in Week 6, having by far his worst game of the season against the Saints. Things will be very different for Minshew and the entire Jaguars offense this week against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is second-worst in yards given up per game (426), bottom 10 in points per game (159), and missing top cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick due to injury. Minshew and DJ Chark are back end QB1 and WR1 options this week, and Leonard Fournette is a top-three option with the potential to finish at the RB1 this week. The Bengals are the worst team against the run in the NFL, giving up the most rushing yards per game (184.5) and most rushing TDs this season (9). Expect the Jaguars offense to bounce-back this week against a hapless Bengals defense.Â
9. Darrell Henderson the darkhorse in the Rams backfield.
The way Todd Gurley broke down last season and has already started to get nicked up this season, it’s obvious that his bell-cow days are over. The Rams realized this and traded up in the third round to take Darrell Henderson in the 2019 draft. Henderson was an absolute stud at Memphis, averaging 8.9 yards over the 2017-2018 seasons. Malcolm Brown didn’t do much starting in place of Gurley in Week 6, gaining 40 yards on 11 carries while picking up an ankle injury in the process. Both Gurley and Brown are hurt and could potentially miss Week 6, which would give Henderson the start against a Falcons defense that has given up double-digit points to opposing running backs in all but one game this season, including 25 points to Dalvin Cook Week 1 and 27 points to David Johnson Week 6. If Gurley and Brown are out this weeks, Henderson is someone who should start in every league. Even if both are back, Henderson is someone I’m looking to acquire for the long run. Â
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10. Now is the time to acquire Cam Newton.
There is a lot of talk that even when Cam Newton is healthy that Kyle Allen could remain the starter. Yes, the Panthers are undefeated with Allen under center and he’s yet to throw an interception, but Allen isn’t the reason the Panthers are winning games. Allen has thrown for over 250 yards once in four starts and lost four fumbles (three in one start), so it’s not like he has been turnover proof. The main reason the Panthers are winning is the defense is playing lights out, and some guy named Christian McCaffrey is having an MVP caliber season. When healthy, I fully expect the Panthers to go back to Newton, and few quarterbacks offer his combination of rushing floor to go with passing upside. With DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, a healthy Greg Olsen, and McCaffrey in the backfield, this may be the best set of weapons Cam as ever had. In the first 13 weeks of the 2018 season, Newton was averaging over 20 points per game and on his way to another QB1 finish. If fully healthy, Cam Newton is a game-changer and someone I’m looking to pick up everywhere I can. His upside is worth the risk, and he can be had for pennies on the dollar.Â
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