The big 10 has passed. No, not the college conference, but week 10 of the NFL season. Even this far into the season, there are still lessons to be observed by fantasy football managers. Here are 10 things that we learned in week 10.
Zay What?
In the offseason, I wrote about my disbelief in Zay Jones‘ ability to be worthy of rostering in fantasy football. The Bills offense had been proving me right most weeks and especially of late. Entering week 10, Buffalo had scored 13 or fewer points in six straight games, including single-digit totals in each of the last three. This time around, however, they exploded for 41 points and Jones was one of the main beneficiaries. He set career-bests across the board with 11 targets, 8 receptions and 93 yards. He also scored only his 2nd TD of the season, but he did fumble for the first time in his career. This may not have much impact in fantasy football this year, but Jones proved that he is a capable WR. This gives managers hope in dynasty formats that Jones is worth hanging on to. As for the remained of this season, the Bills do play the Jets again. Outside of that game, Jones is probably best left on the bench.
(Almost) Perfectly Baked
In week 10, it can be said that the Browns played as close to a perfect game as possible. They took the lead in the 1st quarter and never gave it up. It all began with the QB who was just short of a perfect game in quarterback rating. Baker Mayfield threw the first 3 TD game of his career, and it came on only 20 pass attempts, a career-low. It was all about efficiency as Mayfield set another career-high in yards per attempt (10.8). Furthermore, Mayfield did not throw an INT, only the third time in 2018 where that occurred. What does this mean for fantasy football? Well for starters, Mayfield has some good matchups down the stretch in 2018. Cleveland plays the Bengals twice, who have only prevented one team (the Dolphins) from putting up at least 23 points. He should certainly be started in Superflex or 2QB leagues. As for 1 QB formats, he can be considered a good streaming option when the matchups are optimal.
Here’s 2 You Mr. Robinson
It was quite the game for Allen Robinson. He enjoyed his first 100-yard game as a member of the Bears and scored 2 TDs in a game. The last time that Robinson accomplished both feats at the same time was in December of 2015. It appears that he is over the injury that caused him to miss time. In week 10, Robinson played in 94.7% of offensive snaps. Only once in 2018 did he play in less than 84.3% of snaps and that was the game against the Patriots where he appeared to aggravate his injury. Robinson looks to be a safe play down the stretch, even though his target share has been inconsistent. Either way, this was quite the glorious return from injury.
Spot Duty or Full Force?
Speaking of returns, in his first game since week 4, Leonard Fournette looked to be going at full force. At least, that is the conclusion we can draw from the workload that the Jaguars gave him. Fournette received 29 total touches, only the fourth time in his career that he had at least as much. His rushing efficiency left a lot to be desired at only 2.2 yards per carry (YPC). However, his 11.2 yards per reception on his 5 targets and the 2 TDs that he scored were encouraging signs. This is especially true when considering that he only played in 52% of the Jacksonville offensive snaps. Perhaps this was the team’s way of easing him in but if that were the case, they would not have given him 24 rushing attempts. No, I think that this type of snap count will continue for the season. That is a good sign for T.J. Yeldon‘s fantasy managers. While he only played in 36% of offensive snaps, he still received 6 targets. Only Dede Westbrook saw more targets on the Jaguars in week 10. Throughout 2018, Yeldon’s fantasy production has been tied to his role in the passing game and that at least should continue. Carlos Hyde, however, may have just seen any value he held disappear. He only played 9 offensive snaps and had 3 carries. Hyde’s managers will probably need an injury in order to play him again.
Corey Turning the Corner
Staying in the AFC South, Corey Davis has a brutal schedule with regards to the defensive backs that he has faced. Some of the cornerbacks that have covered him include Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey and TreDavious White. We can now include Stephon Gilmore on that list. However, unlike those other elite CBs, Gilmore was not able to prevent Davis from producing. 7 receptions, 125 yards and 1 TD is a pretty great stat line, especially against a good CB. While he struggled in the first half of 2018, Davis has now proved that he can get it done against tough competition. Considering his 30% target share on the Titans, Davis is probably a safe play most weeks in fantasy football. It appears he may have even turned the corner on these difficult matchups. With Marcus Mariota seemingly healthy, I anticipate that Davis will find success more consistently.
Missing Magic
The Buccaneers were missing something in week 10. It definitely wasn’t yards as they gained over 500 as a team. Points, however, were very hard to come by as they could only muster 3. That was only the second time since 1940 that a team had over 400 yards of offense and only 3 points. It would almost be magical if it were not so bad. Part of the story was the 4 turnovers, 3 of which came from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick himself. His volatility makes him a risky play every week in fantasy football. We have seen the huge weeks such as the three instances in 2018 where Fitzpatrick threw 4 TD passes. He has also had three games with multiple INTs this season. There is also the possibility that he could be benched at any time in favor of Jameis Winston.
One of the biggest problem for Tampa Bay this year as been Mike Evans. He began the campaign hot with TDs in the first three games. Unfortunately, he has only found the end zone once since them. 2 weeks ago, Evans had one catch for 10 yards. While this most recent game was an improvement (3 receptions, 56 yards) he was still only 5th on the team in targets. I am certainly not advising to drop Evans. However, his status as an every week starter is in question.
NO Success for the Bengals
With an injury preventing A.J. Green‘s participation for at least a couple of weeks, many expected that Tyler Boyd would continue his elevated production level. Instead of increasing upon his 8.25 targets per game, Boyd’s share was cut in half as the Bengals offense struggled mightily. This was supposed to be a great matchup for Boyd to breakout as the clear-cut top option for Cincinnati. The Saints had given up the most fantasy points per game to WRs this year and that is with CB Marshon Lattimore playing at a high level. The Bengals were smart and played Boyd in the slot, away from Latimore. Still, the absence of Green meant that New Orleans could shift extra coverage towards Boyd. Because of this, the passing game was not operating optimally. Joe Mixon had success in the run game with 5.5 YPC but they had to abandon the run after trailing 35-7 at halftime. Mixon should still be played most weeks, but Boyd is best left on the bench if a fantasy manager has better options available.
Confirmation
Over the last couple of weeks, I have written about several RBs. These players were either not producing or not getting the workloads that their respective talents merited. For David Johnson, it seems that a change in offensive coordinator was a positive development. Over the last 2 weeks with Byron Leftwich as OC, Johnson has averaged 4.2 YPC, a full yard per carry more than what he averaged in rest of 2018. It is also Johnson’s recent involvement in the passing game that has helped drive up his value. The 7 receptions and 85 receiving yards that he got in week 10 were both season-bests.
For both Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones, week 10 demonstrated efficiency. Chubb had 8.8 YPC on 20 attempts while Jones ran at 9.7 YPC on 15 rushes. Both players were incredibly important to their respective team’s victories. The Browns and the Packers will probably continue to give their top RBs steady workloads. While this was not a huge revelation, in week 10 we saw the potential ceilings of Chubb, Johnson and Jones. All three managed multiple TD and appear to be on the up. We knew that they had this potential, but week 10 gave us the confirmation that all three should be your fantasy lineups most weeks.
Find A Penny, Pick It Up
All it took was 10 weeks and an injury to Chris Carson. Rashaad Penny finally produced at a level that fantasy managers were hoping. He turned a season-best 12 carries into 108 rushing yards. This more than doubled his previous season-high 49 yards in a game. Penny also managed to find the end zone for the first time in 2018. It is not as if Mike Davis failed to see any action as he actually out-touched Penny 15-12. It is simply that Penny demonstrated his explosiveness on his 18 yard TD run and another rush that went for 38 yards. Penny may have just secured his role as the main backup to Carson once he returns from injury. If he continues to miss games, then Penny can be started in fantasy lineups. Even so, Penny should be added in your leagues if he is on waivers.
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Tight Knit Group
There have only been 3 TDs scored by Rams TEs in 2018, and 2 of them came in week 10. Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee combined to catch 5-of-5 targets showing that they were still no higher than 5th on the target list. However, with Cooper Kupp out for the year with a torn ACL, both players will be expected to step up. In key red zone situations during the week 10 game, Jared Goff trusted both Everett and Higbee. For fantasy managers who are thin at TE, either player makes a great addition in the event that one player establishes himself above the other. At this point, these are simply speculative pickups.
Thank you for reading. I wish you the best success with fantasy football in week 11 and beyond. I also hope that you check out all of the great content available on Going for 2. For any comments or questions about this article, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks.
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