For most people playing fantasy football, week 15 marked the playoff semi-finals. I am hoping that you were at least semi-successful in your attempts to earn a spot in the championship game. For those who did, it is now time to make important, potentially title-winning, decisions. In order to help with these choices, here are 10 things that we learned in week 15.
Charging to the Top
Mike Williams got it done as the Chargers top receiver. The Chiefs secondary could not contain him as he scored 3 total TDs (1 rushing). Keenan Allen left the game early with an injury that may keep him out of week 16. If that does in fact occur, Williams proved that he could step in and be that go-to guy. He has had productive games before, but he always had the benefit of Allen’s presence preventing defenses from focusing on him. If Allen should miss the next contest, Williams can be trusted in fantasy championships even against the Ravens. Even though they are a great defense, Mike Evans did just light them up for 121 yards. Both WRs are big, physical players who can make contested catches. It is possible that Williams has similar production.
Where There Are Williams, There’s A Way
Speaking of Williams, Thursday Night’s game was dominated by that name. Mike’s Teammate Tyrell Williams actually led the Chargers in targets with 12. A major factor for that was the aforementioned Allen injury. Unlike Mike, I would expect Tyrell Williams to struggle next week against the Ravens. As the deep-threat whose biggest weapon is his speed, he could easily be held to a similar stat line that Calvin Ridley produced a couple of weeks ago (3 receptions, 22 yards).
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs backfield was highlighted by a pair of Williams. Damien Williams actually led Kansas City in both rushing (49) and receiving yards (74). Furthermore, he found the end zone twice. Darrel Williams also managed to score a TD even though he only had 4 total touches. It appears that Damien will be locked in for double-digit touches even if Spencer Ware returns in week 16. His scoring ability should be noted as he has 4 TDs over the last 2 weeks. There is a chance that Damien might even take over as the starter even with Ware’s return. Darrel meanwhile, will only be relevant as long as Ware is out. What will help both Williams be productive, especially against the Seahawks next week, is their involvement in the passing game.
Sutton Struggles
When Emmanuel Sanders went on injured reserve with a torn Achilles, it was expected that rookie Courtland Sutton would take over as the top receiver. With Sanders taking away coverage from him, Sutton managed either 50 yards or a TD in 8 of the last 9 games before the injury. In the 2 games since, he has failed to do either. Most of the other Broncos receivers are better on the underneath routes, leaving Sutton as the only legit deep-threat. As a result, he has not been able to overcome the extra coverage or the play of Case Keenum. In week 15, the Broncos QB failed to throw a TD passe for the 5th time this season.
Coleman Rolling like a Train
In nature, a falcon could easily win a race against a cardinal. Well, the team from Atlanta mimicked their namesake bird and beat the Cardinals in week 15. One player that really made that happen was Tevin Coleman. After not producing a 100 rushing yards in 11 straight games, Coleman ran for a season-high 145 yards. He was incredibly efficient, gaining all of those yards on only 11 carries. An elevated yards per carry (YPC) makes sense against a bad run-stopping team like Arizona, but 13.2 YPC is just ridiculous. Coleman was far more productive than Ito Smith who only gained 39 yards from scrimmage. This is in spite of the fact that both RBs received 11 total touches. With the news that Smith has been placed on injured reserve, Coleman should see a much larger share of the workload in week 16. Even more good news for Coleman is the fact that they play the Panthers, the only other team against whom he put up over 100 yards on the ground. He is worthy of a start next week if he is needed.
To The Mack
Marlon Mack has had some very productive games in 2018. He had 159 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs against the Bills. The very next week, he produced 149 scrimmage yards, and once again 2 TDs against the Raiders. Neither of those teams boosts the dominant defense that Dallas displays on a weekly basis. In week 15, the Colts offensive line opened up some hole against a great front-7, putting Mack in a position to succeed. The RB did not disappoint as he ran for 139 yards on 27 carries and found the end zone twice. What we learned is that with center Ryan Kelly back from an injury, the Indianapolis o-line has the ability to block and protect against the best defenses. Mack managers should not be afraid to play him in their fantasy championship games. Going against a Giants front that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to RBs in 2017, it is possible that Mack has his best week of the season.
Vikings Land on the Ground
It appears that new Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski got the memo: run the football. Head coach Mike Zimmer got his wish as Minnesota ran the ball 40 times in week 15, as compared to only 21 passing plays. The Vikings getting an early lead certainly contributed to the elevated amount of rushing attempts. Still, against the Lions next week, I expect a similar approach. Dalvin Cook was obviously the biggest beneficiary as he received 19 rushing attempts. He managed to produce 136 yards and 2 TDs on the ground, as well as 27 receiving yards on his lone reception. Latavius Murray was also heavily involved with 15 carries for 68 yards and 1 TD. One aspect that the Vikings took advantage of was the amount of play action that was used. According to Chad Graff, a writer for Athletic Minnesota, they used play action on 32% of their dropbacks. This is a stack contrast to the John DeFilippo called offense which only ran play action on 18.6% of passing plays in the first 14 weeks. If they do have to pass more against Detroit, I expect the play action will set up great opportunities for the receivers. I know Adam Thielen disappointed, but if you managed to survive his 2 reception 19-yard performance, you can trust him next week.
Ballage of Carries
With an injury to Frank Gore, many would have expected that Kenyan Drake would be the one to receive a barrage of rushing attempts. However, in week 15, when Gore did exit with an injury, Drake only had 1 carry. It was rookie Kalen Ballage that had the biggest workload with 12 rushes and 1 target. His ground production was quite elevated as he ran for 123 yards. Most of that came on his 75 yard TD run, but the fact that he received more than half of the Dolphins rushing attempts is very telling. Drake had success in the second half of 2017 when he was asked to be a workhorse. It appears that Miami does not want that to be a permanent situation which is why they signed Gore and drafted Ballage in the 4th round. Perhaps this was an early audition for next year. What we did learn is that Drake cannot be trusted week in-week out. He has demonstrated efficiency and an ability to produce on few touches. However, there is also the possibility that Drake could produce only 34 yards on 3 touches as he did in week 15. With the expectation that Frank Gore will miss week 16, Ballage makes for an interesting, yet very risky option against the Jaguars.
Outdell Beckham
In week 14, the Giants dominated Washington, even without Odell Beckham. It appeared that their offense could survive without their top WR, as long as they had superstar RB Saquon Barkley. Well, in week 15, they ran into a Titans defense that completely shut down the run game. Barkley ran for 2.2 YPC and only gained 56 yards from scrimmage, both of which were season lows. Without Beckham, the Giants became very one-dimensional. Tennessee was able to key in on the run game and they completely shut out the Giants offense. Moving forward, Barkley is a must-start regardless but he is the only Giants players who is worthy of being played. Due to the volatile nature of TEs, perhaps Evan Engram is worth starting, as he did lead the team in targets (12) against the Titans. However, his TD upside is capped if Beckham were to miss another contest.
Driving the Car(son)
In week 15, the Seahawks rookie RB, Rashaad Penny, was inactive. As a result, Chris Carson and Mike Davis lead the backfield. Looking at the box score, one can see that Carson dominated the carries (22 of 35 Seattle rushing attemps). However, his playing time did not increase. In fact, Carson’s 52% snap count was actually a slight decrease from the 58.6% and 53% and in weeks 14 and 15 respectively. It was Davis who saw the biggest increase in playing time going from 17.2% and 27.3% in weeks 1 and 15 respectively to 44% in this most recent contest. Still, he only received 5 rushing attempts, but he got much more work in the passing. Davis caught all of his team-leading 8 targets. It appears that passing to the RBs was the main way that Russell Wilson chose to attack the 49ers defense. Carson and Davis combined for over half (14 of 27) of Seattle’s targets. Getting 28 total touches in this game, Carson made a strong case to be in the driver’s seat for the starting role in 2019. Carson should be a great play in the fantasy championship game as a high volume RB with a good matchup against the Chiefs.
Steeling the Job?
As a team, the Steelers struggled to run against the Raiders in week 14. 40 yards on 19 carries is quite disappointing for a team that prides itself on excellent offensive line play. Neither Stevan Ridley nor Jaylen Samuels could get anything going, although Ridley did manage to get into the end zone. Well, in week 15, Samuels turned it around as he ran for 142 yards on 19 rushing attempts. A factor for that was the Patriots defense focussing on stopping both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Samuels took advantage of the extra running room and may be able to do the same against the Saints if James Conner misses another game. Samuels also got in Ben Roethlisberger‘s good books by making a 20-yard catch on 3rd and 9 late in the fourth quarter. That reception allowed the drive to continue and eventually end in a field goal. While it is unlikely that Samuels will steal away Conner’s job as the lead back, he has certainly played himself into a bigger role with the team.
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Thank you for reading. Good luck in your fantasy football championships. In order to enhance your preparation for this all-important week, be sure to check out Going for 2 for great content. For any comments or questions, I can be found on Twitter @nyama_ks.
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