This will be my final “10 things” article for this season, and I wanted to take a second to say thank you. I truly appreciate anybody who takes time out of their day to read my work, and I hope I helped you in fantasy football this season. Since this is for the entire fantasy playoffs, I’ll have a few more “tips” than usual. Good luck to all in your playoffs, and may you all bring home the Championship!
Our last “Thursday War Room Live” for the season will be Thursday at 7pm ET. Don’t miss it!
1. Cam Akers: League Winner.
It looks as if Cam Akers has taken control of the Ram’s backfield and could be that late-season pickup that turns into a league winner. Sean McVay has played the committee game all season, but you can’t ignore the production of the past three weeks. We see it all the time where rookie RB takes over backfields towards the end of the season, and that’s what’s happening in LA. Akers snap count has gone up each of the past three weeks, from 27% Week 12, 63% Week 13, to a whopping 79% in Week 14. While I don’t expect Akers to have that big of a backfield share each week, it’s a sign that McVay is done with the committee and it’s Akers backfield. Akers is averaging 17.4 fantasy points over the past three games and has an appetizing schedule in the final two weeks, the Jets in Week 15 and the Seahawks in Week 16. It doesn’t get much better than that.
2. Don’t hesitate to start Justin Herbert.
Sometimes you have to have a short memory in fantasy football. Take Derek Carr for example. Those who took a gamble after his abysmal start versus the Falcons and fired him up against the Jets were rewarded with a 381 yard, three-touchdown performance that was his best of the season. Herbert is coming off of two sub-par games, including a Week 13 game in which was the first in his career he failed to throw at least one touchdown. Herbert gets a Falcons defense this week that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks followed up with the Raiders in Week 15 and Broncos in Week 16. Herbert will be just fine and don’t hesitate to start him the rest of the way.
3. Play defense with your bench.
I’m normally not one to look past your current week’s opponent, but the playoffs are a whole different animal. For the most part, your starting lineup is likely set, so the end of your bench more than likely has a few disposable players or lottery tickets sitting on the end of it. Pay attention to not only what your current opponent’s roster looks like, but look ahead to potential Week 15 and 16 matchups. Does their current defense have a terrible matchup next week? Stash the one with the best matchup still available. Is there still a handcuff to their stud running back floating on waivers? Sit them on your bench. Take every possible edge you can, no matter how small. All is fair in love and war, and there is no shame in using your bench to play keep away from your opponent or potential opponent. It could be the difference between a win or a loss.
4. No Julio Jones doesn’t change Calvin Ridley’s value.
There has been talk that Calvin Ridley hasn’t been good when Julio Jones isn’t in the lineup, but the numbers don’t lie. In eight games this season in which both Julio and Ridley played together, Ridley averaged five receptions on eight targets for 76 yards and 17.5 ppg. In three games without Jones, Ridley averaged six receptions on eleven targets for 99 yards and 18.4 ppg. Ridley’s value doesn’t change much for the good or the bad without Jones. He’s locked in as an every week starter, with our without Julio.
5. Dont get too cute, but be smart.
The eternal argument of “always start your studs” versus playing matchups is one that doesn’t have a black and white answer. I am the type of fantasy manager that does lean-to “starting your studs”, play the guys who got you there. Don’t bench a stud simply because they have a bad matchup. But there are exceptions. Right now you can’t be comfortable starting guys like Miles Sanders. I wouldn’t blame you for sitting him on the bench for the likes of Myles Gaskin, David Montgomery, heck, even Wayne Gallman. Situations change as the year goes on. Be smart if you’re going to bench a top tier player, and be willing to live with the consequences.
6. Javis Landry will stay hot.
Since Odell Beckham Jr has went down with injury, Jarvis Landry‘s points per game has jumped from 9.4 to 13.7. Most of that has come in the last two games, as Jarvis Landry is coming off back-to-back 20+ point games. Baker and the offense has looked better since they’ve opened up the passing game, and Landry has been the main beneficiary. He’s coming off of 11 and 10 targets over the past two games, and has a solid schedule for fantasy WRs down the stretch. Landry is locked in as a WR2 with upside for the fantasy playoffs, and could win you a championship with a Week 16 matchup against the Jets. Fire up Landry anywhere you have him.
7. Jonathan Taylor is turning it on at the right time.
It’s been a very up and down season for Jonathan Taylor, but he’s another rookie that is getting hot down the stretch. Taylor has back to back 90 yards rushing games and caught all seven of his targets over that stretch, averaging 18.5 ppg. Week 14 against the Raiders and Week 15 against the Texans are a dream, as they rank 29th and 31st against fantasy running backs respectively. Even in a tough matchup against the Steelers in Week 16, you’re starting Taylor. The Steelers have been banged up on defense and haven’t played great as of late. Taylor will finally pay off when it counts.
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8. Jalen Hurts is the starter in Philly.
Although I don’t trust Jalen Hurts throwing ability at this point in his young career, I think he can be a spark for the offense. Carson Wentz has been trying to do too much and has been holding on to the ball way too long. Hurts will likely either get rid of the ball quickly or tuck and run. He’s not a polished passer, but if he’s able to keep drives going by not trying to play hero ball like Wentz was doing and being able to rush for first downs, it can only be a good thing. If you’re in a tough spot, Hurts should have a solid floor as a QB2 in Superflex leagues thanks to his rushing ability. If he’s able to connect on a passing touchdown or two, he could easily jump into QB1 territory.
9. Taysom Hill is a startable as long as he’s under center.
Yes, Taysom Hill hasn’t lost a start, but he has not looked like a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. That doesn’t matter for fantasy however, and Hill is perfectly fine start while he’s under center. His rushing gives him a solid floor and if he gets touchdowns as he has been, QB1 isn’t hard to reach. However, he could implode at any minute and Drew Brees is rumored to be back soon. As long as he’s starting, Hill is a QB2 with upside in Superflex leagues. But he’s not someone I’d be looking to start in 1QB leagues.
10. Go with your gut.
At the end of the day, you can read hundreds of articles, ask as many start/sit questions on Twitter as humanly possible, and look at ranks from every analyst under the sun. But this is your team. YOU make the final call. If there is a player that you feel you should start, and everyone else is telling you not to, start them anyway. I would much rather be wrong going with my own decision versus someone else’s. It’s easy to get caught up in ranks and Twitter polls and such, but honestly, everyone is guessing. Some guesses are more educated than others, but that doesn’t mean they are always right. Consume trusted sources of fantasy information, take it all in, and make the final call. There is nothing worse than a guy on your bench going off that you wanted to start, but you went with someone else’s opinion. Especially when a championship is on the line.
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