The fantasy football season has been a mirror image of 2020 as a whole. It started without a hitch and then Covid has wreaked havoc. It’s more important than ever to be caught up on the latest news with games being postponed, moved, and potentially canceled. Here are 10 things I feel you need to know going into Week 5.
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1. Joshua Kelley Time
With Austin Ekeler out for the foreseeable future, rookie Josh Kelley is expected to get an increase of his current 40% snap count while sharing the backfield with Justin Jackson. Kelley started his career with back to back double-digit fantasy outings in Weeks 1 and 2 but has cooled off significantly the past two weeks. He’s lost a fumble in each of the last two games, which has led to a decrease in touches. Kelley had 35 attempts through the first two weeks, but that was virtually cut in half to 17 the past two weeks. But Kelley expects to be the 1a to Jacksons 1b and has shown when he’s given the carries he’s able to be productive. He was already the preferred choice in the red-zone before Eckler went down, leading the team with 9 red-zone rushes. I expect Kelley to get about 60% of the work in this backfield, and paired with the red-zone looks, that’s enough to get excited for Kelley as an RB2 in fantasy.
2. Justin Jefferson is for real. Â
Although things started slow the first two weeks for Justin Jefferson, he’s turned it on since Week 3 and is right in the thick of the Rookie-of-the-year conversation. He has a 30% target share for the Vikings the past two weeks and followed up his Week 3 performance of seven catches for 175 yards and a touchdown by breaking the century mark again, snagging four catches for 104 yards in Week 4. Jefferson should continue to produce this week, as a matchup with the Seahawks is on tap. Seattle ranks last in the NFL in total yards per game and passing yards per game. The Vikings defense is awful as well, and Seattle is finally letting Russ cook, so the game script is setting up in Jefferson’s favor. He’s a WR2 with upside this week, and likely the rest of the season if he continues to see a high target share.Â
3. Kenyan Drake is slightly burned toast.
Shaping up to be the biggest non-injury-related bust in fantasy football, Kenyan Drake just isn’t getting it done. Drake is averaging 3.8 yards a carry even though he has 70% of the touches. One of the reasons he was a fantasy force last season is he was getting all of the passing work when he arrived in Arizona. But that’s not the case this year, as he’s been out-targeted 17 to 5 through 4 games by Chase Edmonds. Another issue is Kyler Murray has been calling his own number on the goal line and has four rushing touchdowns on the young season. You can’t completely cut bait on Drake while he’s getting this type of volume. But if he continues his poor play this could wind up becoming more of a committee than originally anticipated. I wouldn’t sell low, but if he has a big game I’d look to trade him.Â
4. Is it almost Tua time?
It seems that Tua time is closer than ever, but the Dolphins are sending mixed signals. Before the season started I thought it would be redshirt season for Tua Tagovailoa. Why risk your potential franchise QB coming off a devastating hip injury on a lost season? But after Ryan Fitzpatrick looked awful Week 1, the “Tua time” chants started. Fitzpatrick has had been solid since then and if he’s able to at least be respectable, I don’t see the Dolphins making the move soon. I’m concerned with the fact that Tua hasn’t even been tackled yet since his hip injury at Alabama last November. I don’t see the Dolphins throwing him in a live NFL game before being tackled in practice. But Miami head coach Brian Flores feeling the need to declare Fitzpatrick the Week 5 starter tells me they are at least considering the switch. Keep an eye out for reports of Tua getting live-action in practice where he’s at least getting hit. That may be the signal they are looking to make the switch. If you’re able to stash Tua I’d look to go ahead and do that. Miami has a solid receiving corps, and Tua could be a difference-maker in Superflex leagues down the stretch.
5. What to make of the Rams Backfield.Â
It was reported this offseason that Rams head coach Sean McVay wanted to use a committee approach at running back, even with the selection of Cam Akers in the second round of the draft. We’ve yet to see what things will look like though, as Malcolm Brown, Darrell Henderson, and Akers have all battled injury this season. Brown is the only back to play in all four games this season. It looked like it was his backfield after a 25 point performance in Week 1. Then Henderson seemed to take control with 20 and 18 point performances in Weeks 2 and 3. They both fell flat in a dream matchup with the Giants in Week 4, and Cam Akers is expected to return in Week 5. Right now you can’t trust anyone in this backfield. Long term I believe Akers is the back you want, they took him in the second round with both Henderson and Brown on the roster already. If they were satisfied with them, they wouldn’t have used such high draft capital. Having to deal with byes, injuries, and Covid-affected games, you may have to start one of these guys at flex. But it’s a shot in the dark, as it could be any of them who get the hot hand and go off. Until there is some clarity, its a backfield I’m looking to avoid for fantasy purposes. Â
6. Big game coming for Teddy Two Gloves.
Coming off of his best game as a member of the Carolina Panthers, look for Teddy Bridgewater to continue his winning ways and have a good game against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is giving up 448 total yards per game, 341 passing yards per game, and 34 points per game, all second to last in the NFL. They have given up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and have given up four touchdowns to the quarterback position in every game this season. He’s got weapons in Robby Anderson and DJ Moore, and Mike Davis is playing well out of the backfield in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. Fire up Bridgewater in all leagues this week. He’s a back end QB1 who could have a monster game.
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7. Buy low on Jonathan Taylor (if you can).Â
After Marlon Mack went down with a season-ending injury, the Jonathan Taylor hype train was going off the rails. Against Minnesota in Week 2, the Colts fed him the ball with 26 carries and two targets, and he responded by going over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown. It looked as if Taylor was shaping up to be that ever-elusive bell-cow running back fantasy managers salivate over. But his touches have been scaled back the past two weeks, getting a solid but not spectacular 13 and 17 rushing attempts and averaging 10 fantasy points a game. Things don’t look promising for him to get back on track this week, as Cleveland is allowing the tenth fewest fantasy points to the running back position with a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. He’s got a great rest of season schedule for fantasy running backs, and after this week I’d check in with the Taylor manager to see if they are panicking. The Colts are a team that’s winning by running the ball and playing defense. Taylor has league-winning potential, and he has a very small buy window that’s cracked open right now. Take advantage before it slams shut.Â
8. The Giants are a dumpster fire. But there is fantasy value.Â
There is no denying that the once-proud Giants franchise is awful. Their offense is currently the worst in the league and the defense is bad as well. But for fantasy purposes, there is some hope. The Giants had an extremely tough four-game stretch to start the season. All four of their opponents (PIT, CHI, SF, LAR) rank top 10 points per game and top 13 in yards per game. The Giants defense is awful, so they will likely be playing a lot of catch up this season. Evan Engram is someone who I’m seeing dropped or available for dirt cheap. He’s averaging 7.5 targets a game and playing 90% of snaps. The tight end position is a wasteland like most years, and although he hasn’t produced yet, I’d buy low on Engram in case he’s able to put it all together. Daniel Jones is also struggling mightily, but with the schedule opening up (DAL, WASx2, PHIx2, TB) Jones can be a solid streamer in Superflex leagues. Garbage time points count just the same in fantasy, and as bad as the Giants are, there is plenty of garbage time in their future.
9. What Michael Thomas‘ return means for the Saints . Â
It’s looking like Michael Thomas will potentially return this week, and it will certainly have an impact on the Saints skill position players. Tre’Quan Smith has enjoyed a productive season so far, but that will likely change. In games without Thomas in the lineup, Smith’s points per game average doubles, from 7 to 14. He’s a beneficiary of Thomas not being in the lineup, and may not be as productive with his return. You’re not moving on from Alvin Kamara, but his immense ceiling may be lowered with Thomas’ return. Kamara averages 21 points per game in games played together, but that jumps to a whopping 35 points per game without Thomas. Something to keep in mind if you’re offered a king’s ransom for Kamara. I would definitely still roll with Kamara, but Thomas will eat into his production. Thomas returning is good for Jared Cook however, as the defensive attention he draws open things up for Cook. His average points per game doubles when Thomas is active, from six without Thomas to 12 with him. His impact on this offense will certainly be felt, and is something to consider with him likely returning soon.
10. It’s more important than ever to plan ahead.Â
It’s been said ad nauseam how important depth is in fantasy year with the impact Covid has had on the season. Not only are there high profile injuries that managers are scrambling to fill, but games have been shuffled around and postponed due to positive tests. Now on top of that, we’re throwing in bye weeks beginning with Week 5. This is a strategy I employ in normal seasons, but it’s important is amplified by the current situation. Make sure you’re not just paying attention to byes this week. Look one week, two weeks, three weeks ahead. Make sure you’re covered and even look at your opponents as well. If you see your opponent next week is missing two wide receivers, snag someone on the wire who has a good matchup next week. When you look ahead you’re able to make moves to help your team without having to blow your budget to fill your team. Good fantasy managers are proactive, not reactive.
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