2015 New York Jets Fantasy Outlook

(www.nydailynews.com)

Fantasy Relevant Additions

• RB Stevan Ridley
• RB Zac Stacy
• WR Brandon Marshall
• QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Fantasy Relevant Losses

• WR Percy Harvin

Overview

Another team that had a very busy off-season, and might have made the biggest “on-paper” improvements of any team in the AFC East. Adding Brandon Marshall gives Geno Smith something he never had in his short career, a true No. 1 wide receiver. Now, whether or not Marshall is still a true No. 1 remains to be seen. On the defensive side the Jets added — by most accounts — the “Best Cornerback in the League”, Darrelle Revis. Though there are a few players that are trying to lay claim to that title, namely Richard Sherman, the fact remains he is an extremely good cornerback. They also acquired another good cornerback in Antonio Cromartie. What was a weakness last year suddenly looks like a strength.

They added a few running backs as well in Zac Stacy and Stevan Ridley to go along with incumbent starter Chris Ivory. Throw Bilal Powell into that mix and you have a crowded, if unimpressive, backfield. I’m expecting a true RBBC with this stable of running backs, unless Chris Ivory can show that he can stay healthy, and even then he will likely come off the field on third downs. As with every team, they will only go as far as the quarterback can take them, and Geno Smith will have no excuses if he doesn’t live up to expectations this year. It is a make or break year for Smith. The Jets will be putting it all on his shoulders, and if he doesn’t perform well early on, we could see Ryan Fitzpatrick. Taking any Jet player this year in your fantasy draft will be a huge risk, but there is some definite upside if Geno Smith can put it together this year. Let’s break it down.

Quarterback

As I mention, the Jets will only go as far as Geno can take them. That also goes for all the skill positions on this team in terms of fantasy production. Can he get the ball to Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker? Will the passing game be good enough to allow the running backs to find space and pick up good chucks of yardage? Can Geno Smith keep his interceptions down and get the Jets in scoring position? All of these things are big “ifs”, and all are reasons to downgrade pretty much every skill position on this team.

Geno Smith isn’t really a fantasy option, but he will directly affect a bunch of players that are fantasy options. I think there are probably three maybe four guys that are worth drafting on this team, and all of them could very well be cut from your fantasy team by Week 6 if Geno falters. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t offer much of an upgrade as the backup QB, and if he were to take over for Smith midseason, I would downgrade the skill positions even further. At least Geno Smith has some potential upside and the hope that maybe he can put it together. We know what Fitzpatrick is, and there is no upside with him. Position Grade: D-

Running Back

Chris Ivory is the incumbent starter in a very crowded backfield that includes former New England Patriot Stevan Ridley, former Ram Zac Stacy and returning third down back Bilal Powell. All of these guys are capable backs, but none of them really stand-out. Chris Ivory currently has the highest ADP (average draft position), followed closely by Stevan Ridley. The last two are going undrafted. This is a true RBBC (running back by committee), as all four backs could have a role, which leads to no fantasy impact. It is very likely at least one of these guys does not make the team, and because Powell plays on special teams I’d venture to guess Stacy or Ridley will be the odd man out.

Ridley has proven to be an effective runner, but ball security is a huge problem for him.  When you have a young quarterback with the propensity to throw interceptions, you don’t want a running back that is going to put it on the turf as well. Zac Stacy on the other hand had one good season in St. Louis, and then disappeared. I’m not sure if it was conditioning, lack of blocking or maybe his good year was a fluke, either way Stacy needs to prove himself in New York or he may not get another shot. This is a situation I’ll be avoiding in my fantasy draft. Position Grade: D

Wide Receiver

The Jets pulled off a good trade to acquire Brandon Marshall from the Bears. Marshall represents something that Geno Smith has never had, a No. 1 wide receiver. That is, of course, if Marshall can return to form after an injury riddled 2014 campaign. With Marshall taking over as the No. 1 wideout, that puts Eric Decker in a more familiar role as a secondary receiver. He too is coming off an injury riddled season and is looking to prove he was worth that large contract he signed before the start of the 2014 season. Jeremy Kerley wraps up the receiving corps, but he can pretty much be ignored for fantasy purposes, unless there is an injury to the receivers in front of him on the depth chart.

Marshall and Decker’s fantasy relevance is tied to Geno Smith. If he takes a giant leap forward in his progression as a quarterback, then Marshall and Decker could both be fantasy relevant. I’ll be curious to see how Geno fares in preseason before I’ll invest in either receiver. Position Grade: C

Tight End

Jace Amaro was a popular sleeper pick last year, and he never really panned out, catching only 38 passes for a mere 345 yards. Those numbers are not fantasy worthy unless you’re in a really deep league. Now you can look at his 2015 season outlook two ways:

1) Marshall will draw double teams, leaving Amaro room to operate down the middle of the field, thus leading to more targets and receptions or,

2) Marshall will be a target monster and will eat into the limited looks Amaro received last year.

I’m of the mindset that it’ll be a game to game fluid situation. Some teams will choose to double, and some won’t. Either way, Amaro is not on the fantasy radar at this point in July. Position Grade: F

Summary

The Jets made a ton of off-season move, and they could all be for nothing if Geno Smith continues to play so poorly. He has the physical tools — and now he has the weapons around him — to be successful, but until we see it translate into on-the-field production I can’t trust it. The Jets are one of the teams I’ll be following closely during the preseason, as the potential for late round value is there with some of their skill positions, namely Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory. This team is full of what ifs and what could be, and only Geno Smith can answer those questions.

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