WR Breshad Perriman | Baltimore Ravens | 3rd Year
2016 Stats: 33 receptions, 499 yards, 3 TDs
After losing his entire rookie season to a knee injury, Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Breshad Perriman suited up for all 16 games last season. His numbers were not great, but the 2015 first-round pick did have at least three catches in five of the final nine games with over 50 receiving yards three times in the last five contests.
The retirement of Steve Smith and the free agent departure of Kamar Aiken leaves the Ravens without 151 targets and 99 catches from last season. Add in fullback Kyle Juszczyk also gone in free agency, and those numbers bump up to 200 targets and 136 catches. Based on Joe Flacco’s numbers, leaving out backup Ryan Mallett’s inconsequential 3-for-6, that’s 29.7 percent of Baltimore’s pass targets and 31.2 percent of their pass receptions from 2016-poof, gone.
The Ravens did not add a wide receiver in free agency or the draft, but the internal praise this offseason for Perriman has included head coach John Harbaugh, wide receiver Mike Wallace and tight end Dennis Pitta. Good things have to be said during OTAs, but the belief in Perriman is noteworthy.
Just under the assumption of being on the field all season, it’s easy to see Perriman doubling his 2016 target total. He also has the size (6-foot-2, 215 pounds) to see a lot more red zone targets too (four last year). Being a proverbial No. 1 wide receiver, or at least a co-No. 1 with Wallace, gives Perriman a solid fantasy floor as long as his knee issues remain behind him.
The most recent ADP data at Fantasy Pros has Perriman at WR62 and pick No. 179 overall. That’s 14th round territory in 12-team leagues, though Fantasy Football Calculator has Perriman a bit higher (pick 12.07, WR54) in 12-team standard leagues. Either way, the UCF product looks like a tremendous draft day value right now.
Buying into Perriman’s breakout potential is rooted in what you’d define as a breakout for him. Based on what I have in mind, the chances he essentially doubles his 2016 production are better than average. That makes Perriman a WR3/WR4 in 12-team leagues, with an ADP that may eventually reach that point.
2017 Projection:
65 receptions, 988 yards, 6 TDs
Breakout Percentage: 60%
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