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As we get ready for week two’s sit em or start em I would like to recap last weeks article. Last week I swung and missed big time on Kareem Hunt, in all fairness though the Patriots looked more like the Jets out there. Outside of the Hunt miss I think I did fairly well. Out of 31 players mentioned last week I was spot on with 19 of them. Six of them were so so meaning they did not produce like I thought but did not excel or flop either. The last six including Hunt were all misses. So over all I think last weeks article was pretty successful. I hope to keep it rolling this week with some more sit em or start em advice. Remember if you have any other sit start questions you can hit me up in my Facebook group Dynasty League Problems or on twitter @MikeKelleyDLP Good luck this week.
The LootCrate START of the Week:
RB Marshawn Lynch (OAK)
Lynch’s return to the NFL after a year off went fairly well last week. Nothing exciting, but a very solid game. He ended up with 18/76/0 and added another reception for 16 yards. A touchdown would have been nice, but I will take a 4.2 yard per carry in his first game back and against a pretty solid Titans run defense. This week he gets to make his home debut against the New York football Jets. Needless to say it should go in his favor. Last week the Jets gave up over 150 yards on the ground to LeSean McCoy and Mike Tolbert. We all knew McCoy would do well, but Tolbert with 40 plus yards? I still think Lynch won’t be over used, but a 22 carry game is not out of the question for him. Look for Lynch to get around 110 yards with at least one touchdown this week. Throw in a recpetion or two for another 15 yards and you are looking at close to 20 points if not more this week from Beast Mode.
The LootCrate SIT of the Week:
QB Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
For the last decade or so Drew Brees has been one of the best passing quarterbacks in the NFL. Last week, outside of the final drive in garbage time Brees was 19 for 29 for 216 yards and zero touchdowns. We are talking about a guy that averages over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns a game. Some would say his career is winding down and that may be true to a degree, but I think last week had more to do with the Vikings defense than anything else. This week Big Ben gets a shot at the Vikings and I am not sure he will do much better. As it is I am avoiding him this week if at all possible. Just like Brees last week though he might be too good to bench. But if you have a strong QB2 with a good match up I would strongly consider swapping out your quarterback. To expect more than 250 yards and one touchdown out of Big Ben might be asking too much of him.
START Carson Palmer (ARI)
When David Johnson went down everyone was naturally looking for his backup. I think the result of Johnson’s injury may just bring the passing game back to life. Something along the lines of 2015 numbers. Don’t forget the Cardinals still have Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and J.J. Nelson all receivers that are very familiar with their system. The Cardinals obviously moved away from the air attack when the realized just how special DJ was. Now that DJ is out of the picture for the time being a shift back to the air assault seems like the most logic step here. Lets also not forget who they are playing here, the Indianapolis Colts. The team that Bruce Arians turned around while an interim coach. I am sure he would love nothing more to come out and make a statement that they are just fine without DJ. Of course the Colts being as awful as they are makes that even easier to do. Start Palmer with confidence he should push for 300 yards in the game and at least two touchdowns.
SIT Blake Bortles (JAC)
When Bortles was having all of his troubles in the preseason I was not all that concerned. With the loss of Allen Robinson now I am getting concerned. Not that I think that Bortles can’t get the job done, but with the star wide receiver out and Leonard Fournette looking so good last week, I think we are seeing a shift in game philosophy here. Tough defense, power running attack, and game management by the quarterback. The end result is some pretty low numbers for Bortles. Bortles best quality the last couple of years has been all the garbage time numbers he has been getting and if those start to dry up he is no longer a low end QB1 but rather a low end QB2 with minimal upside. As a result I think we will see some pretty sad numbers from him most weeks and this week should be no exception. I think we are looking some where in the neighborhood of 200 yards with one touchdown this week, which is sad because in years past he has lit up the Titans secondary, which could still happen, but I am not counting on it.
START Dalvin Cook (MIN)
Despite not finding pay dirt in his NFL debut, Cook did manage to run all over the Saints. I know it was the Saints, but either way 127 yards on 22 carries is a very solid day. I know he faces a much tough Steelers defense this week, but the Vikings have shown commitment to Cook and a much improved passing game, which will force the Steelers to play more straight up instead of crashing the line of scrimmage. Even if the Steelers slow down Cook and the running game I think he will make up some yards in the passing game this week. Last week he caught three passes for 10 and he could easily increase those numbers this week. Another 20 carries for 95 yards with an additional five receptions for 25 yards will round out his day. I don’t see a touchdown this week, but he will get his share before the season is over.
- Ameer Abdullah (DET)
- Leonard Fournette (JAC)
SIT Jay Ajayi (MIA)
Anyone that has read any of my work over the last six months knows I am not a believer in Ajayi. That is about as nice as I can put it. Many people seem to have the opinion that I think he is not a good player, that is not true. What I do believe he is not a RB1 and he will produce mid RB2 numbers most weeks. So my bigger issue is with his perceived value. All that a side this week he faces off against a Chargers defense making their home debut as the Los Angles Chargers. Who suffered a heart breaking road loss in Denver Monday night. I think Ajayi will struggle to find room to run and end up in the 60 yard range on the ground. Add a couple of receptions for another 10 yards and the disappointment will be complete. The only thing that could save his day will be an opportunity for goal line touchdown attempt, which will be the result of a long pass play that ends inside the five yard line.
START Jarvis Landry (MIA)
I know everyone is very high on DeVante Parker as they should be, but for me in PPR I want Landry. While Parker may have the higher ceiling, Landry has the higher floor. Landry has seen over 100 targets every year in the league and that trend will not change this year. It might be down a little with the emergence of Parker, but 130 targets is not out of the question for Landry. Plus the Jay Cutler running the show I actually thinks this helps his numbers, especially in the touchdown department. I already predicted the run game will struggle forcing the fins to go to the air more often, which will lead to Landry seeing ten targets and catching eight of them for 90 plus yards. Not sure he finds the end zone this week but if he manages to it will only make his day that much better.
- Adam Thielen (MIN)
- John Brown (ARI)
SIT Michael Thomas (NO)
My biggest concern with Thomas coming into this year was the departure of Brandin Cooks. Cooks was the guy that could stretch a defense which helped create room for Thomas to operate in other parts of the field with less traffic. I know some people that will point out that is the reason why they brought Ted Ginn in, I am looking at you Joe, but I really don’t think Ginn creates nearly the same amount fear in a secondary as Cooks did. The end result is defenses are not as stretched as they used to be when playing the Saints. Plus I think the Saints are looking for more of a ball control approach this year as Brees is getting pretty long in the tooth. Specifically for this week I am avoiding Saints players because they are playing the Patriots who got embarrassed last Thursday night and the last time that happened they went on a pretty impressive run and won the Super Bowl. With the Saints on a short week and the Patriots with extra time to stew and prepare for this game I have a feeling it won’t be pretty for the Saints. I would not be surprised if the Thomas can only manage four receptions for 45 yards this week. I think we will see Devin McCourty following him around most of the day and we have yet to see any proof that Thomas can get open when being covered by top defensive backs.
START Nick Boyle (BAL)
Joe Flacco loves his tight ends, we all know that. The question is who is going to be the main tight end in Baltimore. I think its going to be Boyle. Will he put up Dennis Pitta‘s numbers? No. But I do believe he will be the number one tight end. This week the Ravens make their home debut against the Browns. With no pass catching running back, because Woodhead is hurt again, Flacco is going to need his safety net and I think Boyle can be just that. Last year Pitta lit up the Browns catching 15 of 18 for 128 yards and this year I see most of those looks going to Boyle. I am expecting five receptions for 55 yards with a good chance at a touchdown.
SIT Jason Witten (DAL)
Watching Witten carve up the Giants on Sunday night have people thinking maybe Witten does have one more top tight end run in him, to those people I say hold that thought. Last year Witten average 6.5 receptions against the Giants and four against the rest of the league. Witten just loves the Giants, in fact in 30 meetings he has a slash of 160/1629/14. So this week will be a reality check for Witten. Going against the Broncos is no easy task and they just shutdown Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry to the tune of 2/17/0. While Witten should do better than they did, I am not expecting much more. I am thinking along the lines of four receptions for 35 yards.
START Baltimore Ravens
The Cleveland Browns gave up seven sacks last and the Ravens defense is looking pretty good this year. It’s going to be another tough week for rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer.
- Seattle Seahawks
SIT New Orleans Saints
I am sure the Patriots have not been too happy for the last TEN days. They will want revenge and unfortunately the Saints are the team next up. This has the potential to be a pretty ugly game for the Saints.
- Atlanta Falcons
Michael Kelley is a member of the Going For 2 team. You can check out his website Dynasty League Problems for more writings or find him on Twitter @mikekelleydlp spreading fantasy knowledge for the masses.
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