Buy Low
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Quarterback
Matt Ryan – After setting a career high in touchdown percentage in 2016, it was obvious Ryan would regress in 2017, but few expected him to be this bad to start the year. If you buy Ryan, know he isn’t the auto play he was a year ago. He is usable only in the right matchups, starting with the Patriots in week 7. I’m buying Ryan as a matchup-based low-end QB1 who has a fantastic schedule during the fantasy playoffs where he’ll face the Saints twice and the Buccaneers 27th ranked pass defense.
Running Back
Ty Montgomery – While Aaron Jones has muddied the water and the Green Bay offense has lost its best player, the Packers will have to lean on the run more. With young quarterbacks, we often see check downs and short passes to build confidence. I expect Montgomery to be a beneficiary of those check downs. Aaron Jones has totaled just two catches for ten yards in the past two games, leading me to believe Montgomery Packers running back to own, especially in PPR leagues. Jones will still have value, but I’m buying Montgomery as a solid RB2, and his value is as low as it’s been all year.
Wide Receiver
Sterling Shepard – Assuming he’s back within a few weeks, Shepard is an interesting buy low option. When he’s back, he should be flooded with targets as he’s currently the most talented wide receiver the Giants will start. He saw 27 targets in the first four weeks and that was with both Brandon Marshall and Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup. Without them, he should push for 8-10 targets per game going forward. I’m buying him while he’s injured and while his stock is low.
Martavis Bryant – There is a possibility (although small) that Bryant is dealt before the trade deadline after requesting a trade this past week. Even if he isn’t traded, he’s a high-upside guy to plug in during bye weeks and may see a few more targets if the Steelers coaching staff wants to keep him happy. Considering he’s been dropped in some leagues, it won’t take much to buy his upside. I’ll take a chance on him as a bench stash and potential bye week fill-in.
Buying Strategy
Look for fit, not for players – The most common trade question I get on Twitter is, “I have _____ and want to trade him. Who should I target?” The problem with this thinking is it’s hard to find a trade partner without context. If you want to have success trading players in your league, you may need to adjust your process. Here’s what I do.
After I’ve determined which player I want to sell from my team, I look at my opponents rosters. I find teams who have a need at the same position as the player I’m selling. For example, if I want to trade Will Fuller, I’ll look for teams who need a starting wide receiver.
Next, I’ll look at my opponent’s strengths. For example, if I see an opponent with Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, and Mark Ingram at running back, it’s safe to say running back is a strength of that team.
Finally, I’ll try to match value. Obviously Will Fuller for Bell or Hunt isn’t equal value, but there’s a chance Ingram is a trade partner for Fuller. This is especially true if the team has a need at wide receiver and has Ingram as their third best running back.
Following these steps helps avoid sending useless offers that will be turned down. With this process, there is a solid chance both teams benefit from the trade, making it more likely to be accepted.
Sell High
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Running Back
Carlos Hyde – Hyde scored 24.5 points this past week on just 13 carries. While his shortage of carries was game-script based, he’s lost some touches to Matt Breida recently, and seems one bad game away from being benched. Hyde has averaged just 3.08 yards per carry over his past four games, so touchdowns have saved his fantasy production. Quite simply, I don’t trust Carlos Hyde as anything more than a low-end RB2, so after scoring twice on Sunday, I’ll try to sell him when his fantasy points are inflated.
Adrian Peterson – Peterson averaged exactly 3.0 yards per carry this season with the Saints. Cardinals running backs averaged 2.46 yards per carry through the first five weeks of the season. Last week Peterson had the perfect game script and ran for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries (5.15 yards per carry). I’m not expecting Peterson to run this well again this season considering the Cardinals offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards (Football Outsiders). I’m selling Peterson as quick as I can.
Wide Receiver
Will Fuller – Here’s a link to what I wrote about Will Fuller last week (Week 6 Buy Low/Sell High). The same logic applies as he scored again in week 6 on just two receptions. He now has 5 touchdowns on 8 catches. He will regress.
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