The biggest fish in NFL free agency this year has a home, as Kirk Cousins will reportedly sign a three-year, $84 million fully guaranteed deal with the Minnesota Vikings.

Cousins has topped 4,000 passing yards with at least 25 touchdown passes in three straight seasons, with a total of 13 rushing touchdowns over that span. Not surprisingly, he has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback all three seasons.

At first glance, Cousins is getting a nice upgrade in supporting cast. But do the numbers show that? Strictly from a fantasy scoring perspective last season, let’s take a look at some key players on the Redskins and the Vikings and their position ranking in ESPN PPR leagues.

Washington Redskins-2017

WR Jamison Crowder-WR33
WR Ryan Grant-WR54
WR Josh Doctson-WR57
WR Terrelle Pryor-WR106
RB Chris Thompson-RB28 (10 games)
RB Samaje Perine-RB43
RB Rob Kelley-RB83 (7 games)
TE Vernon Davis-TE16
TE Jordan Reed-TE36 (6 games)

Kirk Cousins-QB6

Minnesota Vikings-2017

WR Adam Thielen-WR9
WR Stefon Diggs-WR19
WR Jarius Wright-WR107
RB Jerick McKinnon-RB17
RB Latavius Murray-RB25
RB Dalvin Cook-RB72 (4 games)
TE Kyle Rudolph-TE8
QB Case Keenum-QB14

Cousins will find a better defense in Minnesota, and the likelihood of fewer pass attempts late in games. He’ll also have two wide receivers better than he had in Washington last year, and a running back (Cook) who would have been a top-10 fantasy back with his per-game average projected over all 16 games. Cook is coming back from a torn ACL, so his status for training camp is worth watching.

Cousins should make it four straight seasons as a top-10 fantasy quarterback pretty easily, with better talent around him and an offensive coordinator in John DeFilippo who may help bring out his proficiency in the red zone. Of Cousins’ 100 career touchdown passes (counting the playoffs), 64 have come in the red zone with 39 inside the 10-yard line. Cousins also has just five interceptions in 258 red zone pass attempts.

At this early point, I’m booking Cousins for around 4,100 passing yards, 25-30 passing touchdowns and an additional 3-5 rushing scores in 2018. That’s basically what he did from 2015-2017 as Washington’s full-time starter, with the upside to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback like he did in 2016.

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