Kirk Cousins (MIN)
Kirk Cousins ended his 2017 campaign as QB8 in terms of FPPG and was QB4 in total points (via FFToday.com), and now he steps on the field with a team that was one win away from playing in the Super Bowl. This is by far the most talented team Cousins has ever played with. He never had a running game in Washington, yet he was still one of the top play-action QBs in the NFL — and now he has Dalvin Cook to play-action pass with — #Upgrade. The receiving corps in Minnesota rivals his best group of WRs that included Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed, and the defense will give him plenty of short fields — unlike in Washington where he was starting from the 25 more often than not.
The only thing to be wary about with Cousins is in Washington, he was a volume QB. He passed the ball a ton because they couldn’t run the ball and their defense gave up a lot of points, so he was playing catchup on more than a few occasions. In Minnesota, he will be turning around and handing it off to Cook more often than he ever handed off in D.C., and he will be playing with a lead more then he did in Washington, which could lead to a more ball-control offense. All that, however, and Cousins is still a Top 10 QB with Top 5 potential.
Matthew Stafford (DET)
Excluding 2014, Stafford has been a Top 10 QB every year since 2011, yet routinely goes underdrafted. Somehow he still has the stigma of an injury-risk player, but when in reality, he hasn’t missed a single game since 2010. The one thing he has lacked since he has come into the league is a run game, so the Lions went out and drafted RB Kerryon Johnson and signed free agent LeGarrette Blount to help in that department.
You might be asking yourself, “How could a run game help Stafford’s fantasy numbers, a strong run game could mean fewer pass attempts”. One word.
Stafford’s passer rating was a full 15 points higher on play-action passes in 2017 when compared to a normal drop back pass — and that was with little to no threat at running back. So while Stafford may not throw as much in 2018, if he is more efficient with his throws, it will lead to more fantasy points.
Mitch Trubisky (CHI)
Trubsiky had a typical rookie season for a QB. Some ups and plenty of downs, but overall he wasn’t terrible, and now his team is invested 100 percent in him by putting some pieces around him. First, they go out and sign free agent darling WR Allen Robinson, as well as add TE Trey Burton. Then, they draft their potential No.2 WR in Anthony Miller and, of course, they still have the one-two punch of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen.
I don’t know if there is another QB in the league that has a more upgraded supporting cast from 2017 to 2018 then does Trubisky — maybe if DeShone Kizer were still in Cleveland, but he is not. The Bears made some great moves this offseason, and while I’m still scared of Trubisky in redraft, he can be had for almost nothing and has tremendous upside.
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Obviously, nothing needs to be said here, Rodgers is a Top 2 QB in all formats. Assuming he is healthy, and there is nothing to say that he is not, Rodgers will be the first QB off the board.