Currently, on Fantasy Pros Watson is ranked as high as the number one quarterback and as low as 14 with a consensus rank of fifth overall. Considering Watson as the number one overall quarterback is way too high for me. Watson is currently ranked 9th on my board so I am closer to the 14th as opposed to the top spot. Now I know Watson was having an amazing season before his injury, but if you take a closer look you might not think he was doing so great. If we average out his stats some of those numbers are not so good. First the good numbers, Watson was on pace for 47 touchdowns. Now obviously he would not likely have kept his early pace up, but if he could have managed an average of 2 touchdowns per game over the last 9 he would have finished with 37 touchdowns which would have placed him first in the NFL. His yardage rate would have landed him just under 4,200 yards which would have been sixth in the NFL. Those were the good stats so let’s look at the bad ones now. Watson was on pace for 21 interceptions which would have placed him second to last only behind DeShone Kizer’s 22. Finally, his completion percentage was only 62% which was 21st against all quarterbacks that threw at least 100 passes.
Now let’s take a look at the teams he played against. The Patriots who had their defensive struggles early last year, the Browns who did not win a game, and the Chiefs who had one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Not exactly defensive powerhouses. Now let’s look at some of the teams he missed after his injury. The Rams, Cardinals, Ravens, Jaguars, and Steelers are all teams with strong defenses that could have easily brought some of his numbers back down to Earth. Of course, that is all speculation, but I feel good about the assumption that those teams would have limited Watson’s production in those games.
To summarize his yardage was solid and touchdown totals were very good, but his interceptions were terrible and completion percentage was below average. Watson was clearly touchdown dependent and those are the types of players I try to avoid. So to those of you that are drafting Watson as a top-five quarterback, I think you are in for some disappointment. Not that he won’t do well for you, but rather he won’t do as well as his draft spot should be providing.
Projection: 4,000 Yards 30 Touchdowns 18 Interceptions
QB Rank: 9th
Overall ADP: 82
Pick: Late 6th round
If you are struggling with your draft you can hit me up in my Facebook group Dynasty League Problems or on twitter @MikeKelleyDLP
Michael Kelley is a member of the Going For 2 team. You can check out his website Dynasty League Problems for more writings or find him on Twitter @mikekelleydlp spreading fantasy knowledge for the masses.
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