It’s finally here! Happy Week 1 of the NFL Season! It’s the time of the year we’ve all been waiting for since your season ended in either heartbreak from defeat, or jubilation from taking home a championship. We’re all 0-0, and below are 10 things you need to know that can tilt the needle in your favor in hopes of starting the season off with a W.
1. Cant Guard Mike at Home
Not including a Week 17 game where the Saints had already locked up the #1 seed, Michael Thomas either scored a TD or caught double-digit passes in five of seven games played at home last season. As each year passes the home/road splits for Drew Brees have more of an impact, and Michael Thomas naturally feels the effects of this. But a home Monday Night Football game against the Houston Texans (who just shipped Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle) should set the stage for Michael Thomas to have a monster night.
2. Zeke is back, but beware
Ezekiel Elliott ended his holdout and signed a six-year, $90 million contract to make him the all-time highest-paid running back in NFL history. Although he’s been training in Cabo with Marshall Faulk to be ready for the season, the Cowboys reportedly plan to only give Elliott 20 to 25 reps in the Week 1 tilt with the Giants. Zeke may very well be a bit rusty, depending on how much “training” he actually did in Cabo. That being said, there is ZERO chance you’re sitting Elliott against the G-Men. The Giants gave up the fourth most TD’s on the ground (18) and ranked bottom-10 in yards allowed per game last season. If the Cowboys stay true to their word and scale back Elliott’s workload Week 1, Tony Pollard could steal some production as Elliott gets up to speed.
3. Le’Veon returns to the NFL
Speaking of holdouts, Le’Veon Bell will be playing in his first game since January 14th, 2018 when the Jets host the Buffalo Bills Week 1. While he will be fresh, it would be foolhardy to think that there won’t be an adjustment period to playing for the first time in over a year and a half. ESPN’s Rich Cimini has reported that Bell could be sharing the backfield with Ty Montgomery early on in the season as a way to ease Bell back into live-action. You’re not benching him in season-long formats, but for the start of the season, expectations should be tempered. I would avoid in DFS, especially against a stout Buffalo defense.
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4. Ravens will run wildÂ
The Baltimore Ravens, who finished second in rushing yards last year (2,441), face off against one of the worst rush defenses from 2018 in the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins gave up the second-most rushing yards (2,325) and the fourth most rushing TDs (17). Expect Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and Justice Hill to start the season off right with a big game on the ground for Baltimore. Jackson averaged 79 rushing yards per game in seven starts last season, so even if the Dolphins aren’t able to score much with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center and the Ravens play ball control, Jackson should still produce.Â
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5. Keenan Allen will miss Melvin Gordon
With Melvin Gordon’s holdout continuing into the season, Keenan Allen could be in for a difficult Week 1. In games where Gordon and Allen both played last season, Allen averaged 7.83 targets and 74.83 yards per game (first on the team). Without Gordon on the field, Allen’s numbers dropped to averaging four targets and 50 yards a game (third on the team). The Colts defense will be able to shift focus to defending the pass, specifically the Charger’s top option in Allen. Indianapolis was middle of the road for passing yards allowed per game (17th) but clamped down for the third-fewest TD’s allowed through the air (21). With the defense focused on stopping him and a secondary that can keep wide receivers out of the end-zone, Allen should worry more about Gordon’s holdout then who’s ranked ahead of him in Madden 20.
6. Bucco Bruce 2019
Bruce Arians kicks off his third tenure as a head coach (counting his time as interim for the Colts) as he brings his “No risk it, no biscuit” philosophy to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hoping to revive the career of 2015 first overall pick Jameis Winston, the man in the Kangol hat is expected to have his team sling the rock a lot this season. With weapons such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and OJ Howard at his disposal, expect plenty of fireworks against a San Francisco defense that gave up the fifth-most points per game in 2018 (27.2). Fire up your Bucs Week 1, and get ready to eat that W!
7. Extra targets for Edelman
In last year’s Week 15 match-up with the Steelers, Julian Edelman paced the Patriots with seven receptions for 90 yards. With Rob Gronkowski retired (he was last seen chugging a Monster, looking someone to dance battle) and Chris Hogan signing with Carolina, Edelman is a shoo-in to lead the Pats in receptions. Gronk and Hogan combined for only four receptions against Pittsburgh last year but did tally 89 yards and a TD. Edelman is in line for a nice day, with four of the last five match-ups between the Patriots and Steelers going over 40 total points (over 50 twice), even with Tom Brady‘s arm strength deflating each year.
8. Potential shootout in Minnesota
Too bad Chick-fil-a isn’t open on Sundays because The Vikings passing attack should eat against a Falcons secondary that gave up the sixth-most passing yards (259.6) and fourth-most passing TD’s (33) last season. Desmond Trufant hasn’t looked the same since his injury in 2016 when he was starting to look like one of the best corners in the NFL. The Falcons, who are already thin in the secondary, lost Safety J.J. Wilcox for the season to a torn ACL as well. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that has Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen both returning from serious injuries. One thing we know is Atlanta can score, so if Matty Ice and co can move the ball against the Vikings defense, this could turn into a shootout rather quickly.
9. A new era in Jacksonville
Finally finished with the Blake Bortles experience, Jacksonville hitched its wagon to Superbowl LII MVP Nick Foles this off-season. Foles Jaguars career should get off to a great start, facing a Kansas City Chiefs defense that gave up the second-most passing yards (4,374) and seventh-most passing TD’s (30) in 2018. Combine that with likely having to play catch-up with 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes, an over/under total over 50 shows Vegas agrees plenty of points will be scored. Start Foles as a QB2/Superflex play, and Dede Westbrook as rock-solid play as a WR2.
10. Odell who?
One member of the Giants who will benefit from Odell Beckham Jr being traded to the Browns is Evan Engram. Engram has played in 26 career games, averaging nine points in 11 games with Beckham in the lineup, and 13 points in 15 games without Beckham (PPR). According to ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, the Giants plan on Evan Engram “playing a massive role” this season. Engram produces against the division-rival Cowboys, averaging 14 points in four career games, torching them for an average of 20 points per game last season. With Golden Tate suspended to start the season, Beckham a Brown, and Shepard banged up, Engram potential breakout season should start with a big game in big D.
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