WR Curtis Samuel (Carolina Panthers) | 3rd Year
2018 Stats: 39 receptions for 494 yards, 5 TD; eight carries for 84 yards, 2 TD
An ankle injury limited Samuel to nine games as a rookie in 2017, and he finished with just 15 receptions for 115 yards and four carries for 64 yards. Then he missed the start of last year after surgery for an irregular heartbeat, ultimately missing three games, and seemed destined for a second disappointing campaign.
Samuel did not get to five targets in a game until Week 11 last year, but he did catch a touchdown in three of four games overlapping that game from Week 9-Week 12 along with one of his two rushing scores for the season in Week 9. From Week 11-17 (seven games), Samuel got 49 of his 65 targets for the season.
From Week 5-Week 17, Samuel was better on a per-game basis in standard scoring than teammate (and fellow breakout candidate) D.J. Moore and he was only a bit worse (10.5 vs. 11 fantasy points per game) in full-point PPR over that span. Narrowing to Week 11-17, the difference in full-point PPR narrows a bit and Samuel maintained an advantage in standard scoring.
Samuel’s proficiency in the red zone has to be noted. But he also scored four touchdowns in that area of the field on just 10 total red zone touches (targets and carries). During his final season at Ohio State in 2016 he had 1,636 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns, so scoring prowess is nothing new.
Justin Boone of The Score has projected 112 targets for Samuel this year, compared to 111 for Moore. That’s not to say he’ll be a better fantasy producer overall, but it is an interesting, aggressive projection.
A great amount of the appeal attached to Samuel lies in his ADP. Even with early camp buzz trending him upward, he’s WR46 (pick 10.07) in 12-team standard leagues and WR44 (pick 9.12) in 12-team PPR right now (Fantasy Football Calculator). A WR4 finish feels like the floor for him this year, even if a missed game or two could be baked into his projection, and a WR2 finish would be a third-year breakout.
2019 Projection: 55 receptions for 720 yards, 5 TD; 11 carries for 110 yards, 1 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 50%
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