RB Kenyan Drake (Miami Dolphins) | 4th Year
2018 Stats: 120 carries for 535 yards, 4 TD, 53 receptions for 477 yards, 5 TD
Spurred by a five-game stretch to end 2017 where he averaged nearly 119 total yards and 21.6 touches per game, Drake was easy to tab as a breakout candidate at this time last year. He did have an uptick in usage as a pass catcher (73 targets), but he got to double-digit carries in just five games.
Adam Gase put Drake into a timeshare, though it should be noted Frank Gore was productive (4.6 yards per carry) on his team-high 156 carries. But Gase and Gore are both gone, to the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills respectively, so Drake naturally has a path to more work.
Gase, whether it’s totally worthy or not, is easy to tab as a top offensive mind. Quarterback issues were surely a factor in a slow pace, with Ryan Tannehill missing literally half of a possible 48 games, but the Dolphins were 32nd, 22nd and 32nd in the league in plays run during Gase’s three seasons as head coach.
Via Player Profiler, Drake finished 10th among running backs in yards per touch last year. He also finished 34th in opportunity share (45.7 percent), and since entering the league in 2016 he’s fifth in the league in yards per carry. He finished as RB21 in standard scoring and RB14 in PPR (full-point), but so much more was possible.
Projecting his games with nine or more carries over the past two seasons over a full 16 games (h/t to John Paulsen of 4for4 Fantasy Football), Drake would have been a top-10 fantasy running back across the board last year (standard, half-point PPR and full-point PPR).
More play volume for Miami’s offense, and less competition for touches even with the promising Kalen Ballage around, is an obvious positive formula for Drake. More scoring area usage, after averaging less than one red zone touch per game in 2018, should follow easily.
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (12-team leagues as of 7/9)
Standard: RB26 (pick 5.02)
PPR: RB24 (pick 4.11)
Drake is going off the board on the RB2/RB3 border, and barring an alteration in the recent trend line that’s where he’ll stay right on through draft season. With an easily projected 66 percent to 75 percent boost in carries and rushing yards, here’s a RB2 with upside at a relative bargain. Close one eye and you could envision a RB1 finish as the Dolphins’ lead back, but a team that’s in line to lose plenty instantly diminishes that aggressive optimism.
2019 Projection: 215 carries for 930 yards, 6 TD, 55 receptions for 440 yards, 2 TD
Breakout Confidence Level: 70%
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