Here are the AFC North players that you should keep an eye on for your fantasy (mostly redraft) teams.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
KEEPER: Lamar Jackson, Quarterback: As been previously said if you are questioning this choice perhaps you should rethink your life choices.
SLEEPER: JK Dobbins, Running back: There is some talk that the Ravens will pass the ball more? Last season the Ravens were first in rushing yards (3296) with 21 rushing touchdowns. The running backs gained 5.5 yards per carry while averaging 37.3 rushes per game.
Now let’s talk about Dobbins. The Ravens reportedly had a first round grade on him, so when he fell to the second round they couldn’t resist. For good reason, at Ohio State he averaged 6.2 yards per rush and 9.1 per reception. And yes the Ravens backfield appears crowded, but seriously his only competition is Mark Ingram. On a team that ran on 56 percent of offensive snaps sharing time with Ingram is Dobbins wheel house. Overtaking Ingram in snaps is also a possibility.
DROP “EM LIKE HE’S HOT: Gus Edwards, Running Back: In a crowded backfield someone is going to suffer, sorry Edwards. Edwards is a quality running back. He has a 5.3 yards per carry in his career. Last season he had 133 rushing attempts for 711 yards and two touchdowns. He was on the field for 35.93 percent of offensive snaps, compared to Ingram’s 45.61. So yes, after the Ravens picked up his contract he would have been the handcuff choice de jour. But Dobbins was acquired in the second round by a team that thought he was a first round talent. Edwards is third in line for touches.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
KEEPER: Diontae Johnson, Wide Receiver: First remember that Johnson’s achievements last season came without the aid of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. So why should he be a keeper? Last season he played with two notably inferior quarterbacks. Johnson caught 91 percent of balls that were deemed 72.8 percent catchable. And even though he was catching erratic passes, in 31.3 percent of his games he posted numbers that were good enough for WR2 rankings.
Johnson had five receiving touchdowns and 92 targets last season. With the return of Roethlisberger, and a healthy Smith-Schuster look for Johnson to find WR2 numbers consistently for the season.
SLEEPER: Eric Ebron, Tight-End: Ebron is being overlooked because of his 2019 stats. But remember Ebron went from Andrew Luck throwing him the ball to Jacoby Brissett (no disrespect) throwing him the ball. There is also some concern because the Steelers still have Vance McDonald in the tight end room. But also remember in 2018 there was McDonald and Jesse James. In that season the two tight ends had combined for 111 targets, 80 receptions and six touchdowns.
Look for Ebron to be Roethlisberger’s target in the end zone. The middle will most likely be dominated by Smith-Schuster and 6’4″, 229 pound rookie Chase Claypool. That doesn’t diminish the productivity Ebron can bring to the Steelers this year.
DROP ‘EM LIKE HE’S HOT: Ben Roethlisberger, Quarterback: It must seem like an oxymoron to tout two receiving targets and then drop their quarterback, but it’s Big Ben. Yes, he is going to get you fantasy points with his arm. But it is an equally good bet that he is not going to last the season. Roethlisberger is 38 years old and coming off a ligament tear in his right elbow, that happened in the second game of last season.
The Steelers schedule make Roethlisberger good for match-ups. If you draft him, draft him to play the match-ups and hope he bounces back.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
KEEPER: Nick Chubb, Running Back: Full cards on the table I have attempted to roster Chubb or Kareem Hunt in every league I am in, more Chubb than Hunt but there it is. Because in what was an absolutely putrid year for Cleveland, Chubb was the one bright spot. Chubb had 298 rushing attempts that ended up with 1494 yards and eight touchdowns. He was also targeted 49 times for 36 receptions and 278 receiving yards. Chubb averaged 5 yards per carry, with 2.76 yards before contact, and 2.27 average yards after contact (which was second most in NFL). And that was behind a very porous offensive line.
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Things are different now. According to Pro Football Focus the Browns’ offensive line is the most improved offensive line in the league. In addition, there is optimism because of the new coaching regime, specifically head coach Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski comes to Cleveland via Minnesota where he was the Vikings offensive coordinator. Stefanski’s Vikings ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts. His zone-blocking schemes are tailor made for Chubb’s talent set.
So, Chubb excelled in Freddie Kitchens under-impressive offense and now gets a chance in what will be a much improved offense.
SLEEPER: Austin Hooper, Tight-End: The Browns acquired Hooper where he finished the season with career highs in targets (97), catches (75), yardages (787) and touchdowns (6), while playing in only 13 games, having only a 14.5 percent target share. Now he is in an offensive system that is known for playing two-tight end sets. Stefanski’s offense used multiple tight-ends 57 percent of the time, which was the highest rate in NFL.
Last season Hooper’s six touchdowns were all in the red zone and five were within 10-yards of the end zone. For those who worry about target share in Cleveland’s talented corps, remember Hooper came from a system that included Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Now he is in a system that has Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry on the field with him. For his career Hooper has a 97.4 percent catch rate, last season it was 80.7 percent. There is a reason the Browns paid for him.
DROP ‘EM LIKE HE’S HOT: David Njoku, Tight-End: Which brings us to the presumptive other tight-end in the two tight end set, Njoku. The Browns paid for Hooper’s presence and drafted Harrison Bryant in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Njoku has underperformed, last season playing in four games. There was some whispers that Njoku was in Kitchens’ “dog house” after Njoku’s return from injury. But hey, it was a disappointing year for everyone in Cleveland. Now it appears Njoku is the odd man out even in a two-tight end set.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
KEEPER: JOE MIXON, RUNNING BACK: Last season the Cincinnati Bengals finished 2-14. Not surprisingly they also were ranked 30th in points per game. Through it all running back Mixon finished the season as RB13 with 278 rushing attempts, five touchdowns, 1137 yards and averaged 4.1 yards per carry. All this behind an offensive line that was ranked 30th by Pro Football Focus.
The Bengals ranked 25th in rushing attempts last season. This season the team should be better on both sides of the ball and especially the offensive line. Mixon will be playing with a rookie quarterback who had limited pre-season, including no pre-season games to get acclimated to the NFL.
The plus for Mixon is a) he is in the final year of his rookie contract so he has to show what he can do; and b) the Bengals play five teams teams that ranked bottom with their defenses against running backs: Los Angeles Chargers (24th), Jacksonville Jaguars (31st), Washington (30th), Miami Dolphins (26th) and Houston Texans (28th). They also will meet four teams whose defenses are average against the running backs in Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys.
With a rookie quarterback under center look for Mixon to increase his career high rushing attempts of 278 to take some pressure off the quarterback. Also if AJ Green comes in healthy, Green and Tyler Boyd should make it difficult for opposing defenses to stack the box against Mixon. Increased rushing attempts and the safety valve in passing game equals fantasy points.
SLEEPER: Tyler Boyd, Wide Receiver: The only reason Boyd is a sleeper is all the people jumping back on the AJ Green bandwagon. Boyd is Burrow’s Justin Jefferson. Boyd was ranked the seventh best slot receiver (via production) according to @NFLMatchup for the 2019 season. And that was with an unstable quarterback rotation and an iffy offensive line.
Now he has Burrow who should provide more stability and efficiency under center and newly drafted Tee Higgins, and hopefully healthy AJ Green which will give defenses pause on where to focus their energy. This will leave Boyd in the slot available to catch and run.
DROP ‘EM LIKE HE’S HOT: AJ Green, Wide Receiver: There is not doubt that Green was an elite receiver. But at 32 years young, he hasn’t played a full season since 2017. In 2018, he played nine games before surrendering to injury. Last year he missed the whole season with the ankle injury. Now defenses will have to give him some attention, but there is also a bevy of wide receivers just waiting to take his spot.
Green’s current ADP is 5.09, which means he is being taking as the ninth pick in the fifth round. Compared to Boyd whose ADP is 8.05, Boyd is being taking three rounds later than Green. There is a certain bias in fantasy football to rely on “name recognition” and the “good ole days mentality”.
There is a chance that Green bounces back to his former form. But drafting him ahead of a wide receiver who has proven to be fantasy reliable is ridiculous.
Come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt
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