Time to start seriously considering who you are going to draft, who you are going to trade, and who you are going to drop. So let’s start with the AFC and find what teams have at least three relevant fantasy options.
First up is the AFC East division.
AFC EAST
The AFC East may be experiencing a seismic shift this season. Even so, the AFC East does provide some fantasy-relevant players.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots did lose weapons on both the offense and defensive sides of the ball. There are still options:
- Julian Edelman, wide receiver:Â stats 2019: 153 targets, 100 receptions, 1117 yards, 6 touchdowns, 11.2 yards/reception average, 8 drops, 9.8 average fantasy points per game
Last season Edelman finished eighth in fantasy points. That was in the PPR league. There is a chance that N’Keal Henry lives up to his first-round draft status and takes targets, yards, touchdowns away from Edelman.
But both will be receiving the ball from either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer. That will cause a serious decline in the production of all receivers. This is unhappy news considering Edelman is the most trust-worthy receiver on the roster. Which is exactly why you will draft him in your PPR leagues.
Don’t expect the same fantasy production he has experienced under Brady. But he will still be a WR3 emergency bailout option for whoever is under center.
2. James White, running back: stats 2019: 67 rushing attempts, 263 yards, 1 touchdown, 3.9 rushing average; 95 targets, 72 receptions, 5 touchdowns, 3 drops, 8.5 average fantasy points per game
In the last four years, White leads all running backs in targets (417), receptions (328), and receiving touchdowns(24). But again that was with Brady under center. Again, White’s value is in his option as a bailout for either Stidham or Hoyer.
3. Patriots defense: 2019: led league with seven defensive touchdowns, led the league with 25 interceptions, led the league with four blocked kicks, averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game
The surest fantasy bet in New England is the defense. Although the defense will be without the services of Jamie Collins (led the team with 80 tackles, seven sacks and three passes picked off) and Kyle Van Noy ( finished with 56 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and three forced fumbles) the defense will be formidable.
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Their first three selections: safety, Kyle Dugger, outside linebacker Josh Uche, and outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings suggest that defense and not the need for a quarterback rules the brain trust in New England.
Don’t count out the Patriots just yet. In fantasy football do count on their defense.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are the odds on favorite to unseat the Patriots in this division.
- Josh Allen, quarterback: stats 2019: 461 passing attempts, 58.8 completion percentage, 3089 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, nine interceptions; 109 rushing attempts, 510 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns, 18 average fantasy points per game
Never count out a quarterback who also uses his rushing skills. Allen’s dual-threat capabilities made him QB6 in fantasy points last season.
This year his offense has been upgraded. The additions of Stefon Diggs in free agency, and running back Zack Moss ease the loss of Frank Gore while adding depth to wide receivers. Diggs will help in raising Allen’s completion percentage (he had the highest drop percentage in 2019 at 7.2 percent).
With two legitimate downfield threats in Diggs and John Brown look for his deep ball completion percentage, which was 30th in the league at 25 percent last season to raise substantially. Add that to his ability to give you points with his legs and Allen is legit for fantasy purposes.
2. Stefon Diggs, wide receiver: stats 2019: 94 targets, 63 receptions, 1130 yards, six touchdowns, 17.9 yards per reception, six drops, 9.9 average fantasy points per game
This is interesting mainly because of Diggs’ frustration with his targets in Minnesota. The Bills ranked 24th in the NFL in passing attempts last season. They still have Brown and Cole Beasley on the roster. Brown led the team in targets averaging 7.7 a game.
They also employ a run-heavy offense, ranking seventh in that stat last season at 45 percent. So this doesn’t seem to be the perfect landing spot for someone who was dissatisfied with his role last season.
What makes this a fantasy win is Allen is sixth in average depth of target (aDOT) at 9.3. Diggs aDOT last season was 14.8. With two deep threat options and a reliable slot option, the fantasy relevance stacks up better for Allen.
However, you don’t give up a first-,fifth-and sixth round 2020, plus a fourth-round 2021 not to use him.
3. Zack Moss, running back: stats 2019: rookie drafted third round 2020 NFL Draft
While there is still Devin Singletary in the backfield, last season Singeltary accounted for two rushing touchdowns. Moss’s strength is in his physicality. He doesn’t have blinding speed instead he tends to run through the opposition. Moss averaged 6.0 rushing yards per game last season. After the first two weeks of last year’s college season, he led the nation in broken tackles.
While you are hesitant to draft any running back in a running back by committee scenario, look for Moss to be the red zone option.
New York Jets
Oh, what has happened to you, Adam Gase? That said, the Jets are not without talent. And the addition of a good draft makes their fantasy football prospects interesting.
Sam Darnold, quarterback: stats 2019: 441 passing attempts, 61.9 completion percentage, 3024 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 33 rushing attempts, 62 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 14.6 average fantasy points per game
Darnold isn’t going to win you fantasy points with his legs, he won’t need to. This will be Darnold’s second year under head coach Adam Gase. And while Gase isn’t the wunderkind in offensive acumen anymore he isn’t horrible?
Darnold missed three games due to mononucleosis and according to Pro Football Focus played behind the 30th ranked offensive line.
In free agency and the 2020 NFL Draft, the Jets are attempting to make the offensive line better. The Jets acquired Connor McGovern, center, George Fant, offensive tackle, and Alex Lewis, guard. And in the NFL 2020 Draft, they drafted offensive tackle Mekhi Becton in the first round and the fourth round offensive tackle Cameron Clark.
They also moved to give Darnold a weapon, drafting speedy wide receiver Denzel Mims in the second round to offset the loss of Robby Anderson.
The reason for optimism? In his last eight games, he threw 13 touchdowns to four interceptions. Now he will be in his second full year with Gase. His offensive line should be better. Look for Darnold to continue the improvement he showed in the last eight games.
2. Denzel Mims, wide receiver: stats 2019: rookie drafted in the second round 2020 NFL Draft
According to NFL Draft analysis, Mims is a touchdown threat anytime he’s near the red zone. In the Jets offense, Mims will be a day one starter. He will be a deep threat with Breshad Perriman. Perriman will have the opposition’s best cornerback, giving Mims a chance to shine.
3.Le’Veon Bell, running back: stats 2019: 245 rushing attempts, 789 yards, 3 touchdowns, 3.2 rushing average; 78 targets, 66 receptions, two drops, 9.9 average fantasy points per game
Yes, there are additions to the backfield and of course head coach Adam Gase’s proclamation that they want to “lessen his load”.
But last season only seven running backs touched the ball more than Bell last season. With a bad offensive line, Bell managed to finish a very bad season RB14 in PPR leagues and RB22 in standard leagues.
The competition in the backfield includes veteran Frank Gore and rookie Lamical Perine. Gore is ageless. You simply cannot count him out and he has prior experience with Gase. But last season Gore finished the season with only 16 receiving targets and 100 yards. And receiving yards out of the backfield is where Bell makes your fantasy money.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins outperformed last season. There were also fantasy gems that no one could have counted on. It could happen again.
- DeVante Parker, wide receiver: stats 2019: 128 targets, 72 receptions, 1202 yards, nine touchdowns, 16.7 yards per receptions, seven drops, 10.9 average fantasy points
We aren’t looking too far in the future here. We are looking at the reunion of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick with Parker. Last season the duo had Parker looking like the Parker we have always suspected.
Parker finished fifth in the league in receiving yards, 15th in the league in targets, fourth in the league in touchdowns, and with 13.8 air yards per target.
Last season Parker played 16 games on an inferior team. This year the Dolphins are equipped to be better. Look for Parker and Fitzpatrick to continue some of the magic.
2. Mike Gesicki, tight end: stats 2019: 89 targets, 51 receptions, 570 yards, five touchdowns, 11.2 yards per reception, two drops, 5.3 average fantasy points per gameÂ
Gesicki ended last season strong. In the last seven weeks of the season, Gesicki scored five touchdowns. Only seven tight ends score more points than him in those weeks.
Again projection includes Fitzpatrick under center.
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick, quarterback: stats 2019: 502 passing attempts, 62 percent completion percentage, 502 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 54 rushing attempts, 4 rushing touchdowns, 16.1 average fantasy points
I refuse to count out Fitzpatrick once again. Last season he finished as QB17. This year the team is better.
Fitzpatrick will start. The only question is when Tua Tagovailoa takes over? Fitzpatrick isn’t going to be your QB1, but it doesn’t hurt to draft him for the stretch of magic that you know he is going to have.
The schedules are out. And they will impact fantasy football performances. Be prepared.
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