The NFL Schedule release proved one thing, the rich got richer. Seriously, the Baltimore Ravens are stacked, and by most prognosticators, their schedule is easy. The defenses they will face didn’t do much last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars lost just about everybody, and the defense ranked 22nd before the exodus. The Houston Texans made some questionable moves and had a defense that ranked 26th. Both the New York Giants and Washington were a bottom 10 defense, and while there is some expected improvement, I repeat the Ravens are stacked.
But this is about the AFC North, and there are more teams than the Ravens…right?
Baltimore Ravens
- Lamar Jackson, quarterback: stats 2019: 401 passing attempts, 66.1 completion percentage, 3127 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, six interceptions; 176 rushing attempts, seven rushing touchdowns, 27.7 average fantasy points per game
Yes, Jackson will experience regression this season, but what is he regressing to the number two fantasy quarterback?
2. Mark Andrews, tight end: stats 2019: 98 targets, 64 receptions, 852 yards, 10 touchdowns, 13.3 yards per reception, five drops, 9.5 average fantasy points per game
There are more weapons for Jackson this season. And Andrews 10 touchdowns is ridiculous. But Hayden Hurst is gone. Last season Andrews was in a tight end snap share; he played less than 50 percent of the snaps. This season without Hurst, he should be on the field more. More opportunity is always a good thing from a fantasy perspective, especially for a tight end stud.
3.Marquise Brown, wide receiver: stats 2019: 71 targets, 46 receptions, 584 yards, seven touchdowns, 12.7 yards per reception, four drops, 7.2 average fantasy points per game
I almost slotted rookie wide receiver Devin Duvernay in this spot. Head coach Jim Harbaugh was certainly excited when they drafted him. But Brown is the number one wide receiver in this offense.
Most are afraid because the Ravens ran the ball on 54 percent of the time last season. But you don’t draft two wide receivers if you don’t want to open up that passing game.
Brown was dealing with a lingering foot injury his rookie season. That problem is behind him.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are going into the 2020 season with an oft-injured quarterback and running back. Do you dare count either out? Let’s just call it the M*A*S*H* unit.
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- Pittsburgh Defense: The defense from last year has remained relatively intact. That is a good thing considering they averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game. Last season, thanks to the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Steelers defense allowed the third-fewest passing yards and the 15th fewest passing touchdowns. Add to that their league-leading 38 turnovers, 20 interceptions, and 18 fumbles, making them not only the most consistent fantasy producer in Pittsburgh but a top-three fantasy unit.
Yes, they lost Javon Hargrave on the defensive line, but if Stephon Tuitt returns healthy, then it is a wash. And the linebackers are still there, including the addition of Alex Highsmith in the draft. The secondary already mentioned. The Steelers are the defensive unit to watch this season.
And if you play IDP fantasy you can always count on TJ Watt and his 55 tackles, 14 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks; or Devin Bush and his 109 tackles, nine tackles for loss, one sack, two quarterback hits, and two interceptions; and of course the aforementioned Fitzpatrick who accounted for 80 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, nine passes defended, two interceptions and one touchdown. Those are just three. The Steelers defense is the gift that keeps on giving.
2. Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, wide receiver: stats 2019: 71 targets, 42 receptions, 552 yards, three touchdowns, 13.1 yards per receptions, three drops, 5.9 average fantasy points
I go back and forth on Smith-Schuster. First, the stats from last season were on 12 games as he was hurt and outplayed by both James Washington and Diontae Johnson. However, that was with quarterbacks not named Ben Roethlisberger.
Second, I still believe Smith-Schuster is better against the opposition number two defensive back. But that could just be the Antonio Brown hangover effect. Now that he is presumptively moved back into the slot, this is excellent news for his production and fantasy value.
What is fact is that Smith-Schuster is better with Roethlisberger. When he played with Roethlisberger, he finished the season with seven touchdowns on 1426 yards.
This season hopefully, Roethlisberger will come back healthy. The addition of Chase Claypool will hurt the targets of Johnson and Washinton but put only a dent in Smith-Schuster. Mainly because the Steelers announced the addition of Claypool allows Smit-Schuster to go back to the slot.
The addition of Eric Ebron remains to be defined. He has been the archetypical roller coaster player. It will be more detrimental to Vance McDonald than Smith-Schuster.
3. Ben Roethlisberger, quarterback: stats 2019 suffered elbow injury week two of the 2019 season:
Here is the deal; I cannot quit Roethlisberger. What we know is that sometime during the season (hopefully later than week two), he will come up hurt. So have a reliable back-up. But until then, he will be money. In 2018 he threw 34 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He led the league in passing yards (5129) and yards per game (320.6).
We are talking about an aging quarterback who needs this now. He has weapons and a reliable run game. His defense is outstanding. The only thing that will stop Roethlisberger from being a top-five quarterback is injuries.
Cleveland Browns
Is there a team with as much talent that showed as much disappointment in both fantasy and reality than the Browns last season? Was it all Freddie Kitchens?
- Kareem Hunt, running back; 2019 stats: 43 rushing attempts, 179 yards, two touchdowns, 4.2 average rushing yards; 44 targets, 37 receptions, one touchdown, three drops, eight average fantasy points per game
Yep, I did it. I picked Hunt over Nick Chubb. That doesn’t mean Chubb isn’t right there as a valid pick (he finished last season as RB8).
Last season head coach Kevin Stefanski was the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings ranked sixth in rushing and eighth in scoring. That looks good for both running backs.
But Hunt’s stats are on a season in which he played in only eight games. In four of those games, he and Chubb shared the backfield. Hunt averaged 11 fantasy points in those games while Chubb averaged 6.95 fantasy points.
2. Baker Mayfield, quarterback: stats 2019: 534 passing attempts, 59.4 completion percentage, 3827 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 21 interceptions; 28 rushing attempts, 141 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 14.3 average fantasy points per game
Mayfield did not do you any favors last season amidst the hype. He was sacked 40 times. He threw 21 interceptions, and both of his highly touted wide receivers played injured most of the season.
Now Mayfield is coming off fantasy boards in the later rounds. That is good for those of us who don’t go with Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in the first two rounds.
Mayfield has a new head coach, a better offensive line, and both Hunt and Austin Hooper to aid to his arsenal of weapons. There is also the schedule. This season Mayfield will play against the fourth easiest strength of schedule. The Browns start against the Ravens but have no stretch where they play consecutive games against top defenses.
Mayfield will rebound this season. And where you can get him in your fantasy draft is value for you.
3. Austin Hooper, tight end: stats 2019 with Atlanta Falcons: targets 97, 75 receptions, 787 yards, six touchdowns, 10.5 yards per receptions, one drop, nine average fantasy points per game
On the face of it, Hooper has landed in a precarious position because of all the mouths to feed in Cleveland. Which is true. But this season there is a new head coach and new offensive scheme in Cleveland. Last season in his duties as offensive coordinator, Stefanski’s team was second in the NFL in percentage of plays in two-tight end sets.
That and Hooper is coming off his best year, which has led to him being the highest-paid tight end in the league. You know they are going to utilize him…a lot.
His targets may go down, look for his touchdown totals to increase.
Cincinnati Bengals
It is a new era in Cincinnati. And unfortunately, that means plenty of indecision as far as fantasy projections go.
- Joe Mixon, running back: stats 2019: 278 rushing attempts, 1137 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 4.1 average rushing yards; 45 targets, 35 receptions, three touchdowns, two drops, 11.9 average fantasy points per game
Mixon finished last season as RB13 in standard fantasy football leagues. This season he will play with a rookie quarterback, which is both good and bad.
Mixon is the clear RB1 in the Bengals offense. That is just what a rookie quarterback needs is a dependable running game. Mixon is durable, having missed only three games in the last three seasons. He can be utilized out of the backfield as a receiving option when the quarterback needs a quick out pass. And he just got paid.
- AJ Green, wide receiver: stats 2019: out with injury
The question is where Green falls in your draft. So Green did not play in 2019 because of injury. His 2018 season, he missed seven games due to injury. So there is that, the always present injury question.
But if you believe Joe Burrow is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, then Green is your man. He is currently being drafted around in the eighth to tenth rounds in fantasy leagues. Even if you think he will be sharing targets with John Ross and Tyler Boyd, Green will overplay his current draft status.
- Tee Higgins, wide receiver: stats 2019: rookie
The Bengals offense is loaded with potential. There is Green, Ross, Boyd and now Higgins. Higgins was drafted early in the second round of the 2020 NFL draft. Higgins is big at 6’4′ and 216-pounds. Last season he scored a touchdown on 20 percent of his catches.
That was college, and to believe the production will stay the same at this level is a fantasy. However, Higgins is a downfield threat. Paired with a rookie quarterback who can toss the ball downfield, look for Higgins to be targeted in the red-zone consistently. That is enough to give him fantasy value.
the Takeaway
Look for the Cleveland Browns to be the sleeper fantasy options of the season. People will sour on them because of last season, but don’t look away. They are loaded with talent and are now in possession of a head coach who knows how to utilize talent.
The Steelers will be over-drafted. They have the second easiest strength of schedule, according to CBS.com. They are also plagued with pivotal players who are injury-prone.
The Ravens are the Ravens. They will excel and then some. Tread lightly on Mark Ingram. He will not reach his numbers from last season, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Action Jackson will regress and still be a top-five fantasy quarterback.
The Bengals are the crapshoot—plenty of Boom or Bust candidates to choose.  Choose wisely.
Next up AFC West where there is fantasy gold out West.
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