Everyone is chasing the Kansas City Chiefs. That is great news for your fantasy football prospects. The AFC West contains some fantasy gems.
Let’s start with the obvious:
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is a team where your fantasy decisions aren’t difficult. It is impossible to go wrong. Here are three duh! right choices.
Patrick Mahomes, quarterback: stats 2019: 484 passing attempts, 65.9 completion percentage, 4031 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, five interceptions; 43 rushing attempts, 218 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 20.5 average fantasy points
Mahomes finished the 2019 season as QB6 in standard fantasy leagues. There isn’t much to say. If you have to be convinced to draft Mahomes, perhaps you should be playing Cricket.
Travis Kelce, tight-end: stats 2019: 136 targets, 97 receptions, 1229 yards, five touchdowns, 12.7 yards per reception, seven drops, 9.8 average fantasy points per game
Kelce is just a big wide receiver who finished as TE1 in standard fantasy leagues last season. In his two years with Mahomes under center, Kelce has 15 touchdowns. In the past four seasons, Kelce has finished no further than TE2 in fantasy.
The tight end position is pretty shallow. Kelce is worth the price you are going to have to pay to get his services.
And you are welcome for the gratuitous picture of @tkelce or @KillaTrav
Tyreek Hill, wide receiver: stats 2019: 89 targets, 58 receptions, 860 yards, seven touchdowns, 14.8 yards per receptions, three drops, 10.9 average fantasy points
Hill will get you fantasy points. He will also leave you fantasy dry. He is not the most consistent wide receiver. But his upside, in addition to his speed, is that he is playing with Mahomes.
Last season he had a span of games in which he scored less than 20—fantasy points. Against the Chargers, he scored 16.13 fantasy points, Baltimore he scored 19.47, against New England he scored 12.76, and versus Buffalo 15.24.
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He also missed four games last season. He ranked ninth in PPR points in the games he did play. Hill and the entire KC offense are money.
Denver Broncos
There is plenty of optimism in the Mile High City. This is the optimism for the fantasy prospects the Broncos have to offer.
Embed from Getty ImagesDrew Lock, quarterback: stats 2019: five starts, 156 passing attempts, 64.1 completion percentage, 1020 passing yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions; 18 rushing attempts, 72 rushing yards, 13.6 average fantasy points per game
Don’t think of this as just betting on Lock, think of what the Broncos have given him. With half the talent last year in his five games, he balled out. Now, in addition to Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Phillip Lindsay, he has Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler.
He also has no excuse to fail.
Noah Fant, tight end: stats 2019:66 targets, 40 receptions, 562 yards, three touchdowns, 14 yards per reception, four drops, 4.4 average fantasy points per game
Remember, the tight end position is shallow. Fant makes it slightly deeper. Last season he had 8.3 yards after the catch, which was the most for the tight-end position. For the tight-end position, he was second in yards per reception. And that was only playing the last five games with Lock.
Jerry Jeudy, wide receiver: ROOKIE: according to fantasy data “Jeudy the best route-runner in the draft with next-level agility and the ability to turn a corner on a dime …the fact that Jeudy was not the first wide receiver selected and made it near the middle of the first-round is shocking.”
That about says it.
Los Angeles Chargers
Here is where it gets dicey. There are the “standard” players, and then there are the players who are going to be fantasy stand-outs.
Austin Ekeler, running back: stats 2019: 132 rushing attempts, 557 yards, three touchdowns, 4.2 rushing average; 108 targets, 92 receptions, eight touchdowns, two drops, 13.6 average fantasy points
So last season Melvin Gordon sat out for a few games and Ekeler dominated, surpassing almost every fantasy expectation. This season the Chargers let Gordon go to the Broncos, leaving Ekeler as the main man.
Yes, there is Justin Jackson. He will eat into some of Ekeler’s touches, but remember, there are 162 rushing attempts that Gordon had last season, and someone has to recover. We will give them to Jackson and Joshua Kelley.
Ekeler will still get his in the receiving game, and that is fantasy gold for you.
Hunter Henry, tight end: stats 2019: 76 targets, 55 receptions, 652 yards, five touchdowns, 11.9 yards per reception, four drops, 7.9 average fantasy points per game
The worry with Henry is injuries. In his five seasons, he has only played in 41-of-64 games. Last season he played in 12 games and finished TE9 in fantasy leagues. The way to get around that is handcuff, of course, with a sleeper tight end >cough< like Fant maybe?
The Chargers will pass less this season. The Chargers had 597 passing attempts last season. In Tyrod Taylor’s complete season, he had 436 passing attempts.
Henry’s value will come from being a target in the red-zone and a quick out option for Taylor. Henry was the third most targeted player in the red-zone on the team (13), after missing games and being on the field for 621 offensive snaps. (Keenan Allen most red-zone targets with 20 was on the field for 944 offensive snaps).
Henry, on the field, is a top-five tight end.
Tyrod Taylor, quarterback: Non-issue last season
Stay with me here. First Taylor is a mobile quarterback. Next, the Chargers are built to Taylor’strengths.
Taylor not only protects the ball well but has excellent deep-ball accuracy. In his 2017 season, Football Outsiders had him ranked as the seventh-best deep ball passer in the league.
Yes, he will pass less, but getting more for less is always good. And luckily in Mike Williams, the Chargers have the perfect target.
His mobility opens up the Chargers playbook (good for everyone), but his legs will get you fantasy points also. In three seasons in Buffalo, he ran for 1575 yards and 14 touchdowns.
All this becomes a moot point if the Chargers just happen, so sign Cam Newton. But until then, don’t be afraid of Taylor.
Las Vegas Raiders
Oh, who to bet?
Josh Jacobs, running back: stats 2019: 242 rushing attempts, 1150 yards, seven touchdowns, 4.8 rushing average; 27 targets, 20 receptions, zero touchdowns, three drops, 13.2 average fantasy points per game
Jacobs missed three games last season with an injury. He still finished seventh in rushing yards (1150). He also had 69 missed tackles, which led the league.
There was talk (and it continues) that Jacobs will be used more in the passing game. It didn’t materialize last season, and with the extension of Jalen Richard, it doesn’t look good. But unless you are counting on him in PPR, don’t worry.
Last season he finished RB20 in PPR scoring and RB11 in ‘classical’ scoring.
Darren Waller, tight end: stats 2019: stats 2019: 117 targets, 90 receptions, 1145 yards, three touchdowns, 12.7 yards per reception, seven drops, 8.2 average fantasy points per game
Waller was the most targeted player on the Raiders in 2019. He also had seven drops and only three touchdowns. The Raiders have seemingly taken steps to spread the ball around more this season.
And while that will eat into Waller’s targets. Say it with me, the tight-end pool is shallow. Waller will more than hold his own.
Henry Ruggs III, wide receiver: ROOKIE
The Raiders upgraded their wide receiving corps during the draft. Ruggs surprisingly was the first wide receiver taken off the board. Why? He is fast, big-play fast. And while some argue he wasn’t even the best wide receiver at Alabama, fear not.
He will be the best wide receiver in Vegas. He averaged 18.65 yards per reception at ‘Bama. In receptions of 20 yards or more (big-play receptions), Ruggs ranked third in his class at 35 percent, according to Fansided.
Now he will be playing with Pro Football Focus’ most accurate deep passer on targets of 20 yards or more. Carr completed 52.3 percent of his deep passes. That will add up to a lot of targets for Ruggs.
When he slides into WR1 on Raiders, that is opportunity. Opportunity is fantasy football’s best friend.
Thanks to fantasydata.com for the stats2019.
Next up AFC South.
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