I know what you are thinking. The AFC South can’t possibly have any relevant fantasy players. DeAndre Hopkins is gone. Andrew Luck is retired. The Tennessee Titans are depending on Ryan Tannehill and oh yeah, Jacksonville is doing who knows what.
The beauty of fantasy football is we don’t depend on teams. We just need players to play. And if that means furiously mounting a come-back each week so we can get those fantasy points, so be it.
Onward!
Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson, Quarterback: stats 2019: 495 passing attempts, 67.3 percent completion rate, 3852 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 82 rushing attempts, 413 yards, seven touchdowns, 21.3 average fantasy points per game
Here is the one thing to remember, head coach Bill O’Brien traded away DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins who was responsible for catching 30 percent of Watson’s passing yards and 27 percent of his touchdowns passes.
Watson is now left with Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, and Randall Cobb as his wide receiving options. That is not a bad lot, except Fuller has injury issues, Cooks has concussion problems and Cobb is your slot man on a team that looks to go deep.
Still, Watson finished last season as QB4. Thanks in part to his seven rushing touchdowns. Remember his rushing stats are trending down (except for touchdowns?). In 2018 he had 99 rushing attempts, 551 yards and 5.6 yards per attempt with five touchdowns.
So yes, without Hopkins there will be a regression. Watson will still be a top 10 quarterback but game-by-game fantasy points may be feast or famine.
David Johnson, Running Back: stats 2019 Arizona Cardinals: 94 rushing attempts, 345 yards, two touchdowns, 3.7 rushing average; 47 targets, 36 receptions, four touchdowns, three drops, 8.1 average fantasy points per game
Yes, Johnson is a questionable trade. And yes, he has been trending down. Except for the 2017 season where he played only one game, last season was his lowest scoring average for fantasy, the other three years he averaged double figures.
Where you should be excited is in his receiving stats. Johnson has four receiving touchdowns. That ties the most receiving touchdowns he has had in his career. In Houston, there are targets to be acquired with the loss of Hopkins (150) and Carlos Hyde (42).
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And as far as rushing goes, Hyde was 13th in rushing yards (1070) on 245 rushing attempts. Hyde is gone. Duke Johnson remains. There is a chance that Duke Johnson vultures some of the backfield passing yards. But the Texans gave up a butt-load to get David Johnson. You should count on them trying to get their money’s worth.
Will Fuller, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 11 games played, 71 targets, 49 receptions, 670 yards, three touchdowns, 13.7 yards per receptions, six drops, 7.7 average fantasy points per game
The problem with Fuller is his injury background. In 2016 he played in 14 games, in 2017 he played 10 games and seven games in 2018. That is not something that is going to make you feel all warm and fuzzy.
However, all reports are that he is coming into the season healthy. I know. But with Hopkins gone that is 150 targets someone has to gobble up. Sure there is Brandin Cooks (who has concussion issues), Randall Cobb (who is best in the slot), and maybe Kenny Stills.
But Fuller is a deep threat. Last season Fuller was responsible for 38.3 percent of the Texan’s deep targets. So he is the classic boom or bust candidate?
Watson is more familiar with Fuller. If Fuller can stay on the field…IF…then he can be that late-round draft choice that will outplay his draft position.
Indianapolis Colts
We are going to call the Colts, the late-round gems that will win you your fantasy league.
Philip Rivers, Quarterback: 2019 stats with Los Angeles Chargers: 591 passing attempts, 66 percent completion percentage, 4615 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 interceptions; 12 rushing attempts, 29 yards, 14.7 average fantasy points per game
If you watched Rivers last season it wasn’t good. He finished the season as QB18 in classic fantasy formats. He tossed in 20 interceptions and a couple were just heartbreaking. So maybe you are thinking of following the Chargers example and turn your back on him.
Don’t.
First Rivers will be playing 11 games indoors.
Second, he is playing behind a better offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts had the 13th best pass-blocking offensive line last season. The Chargers had the second-worst pass blocking line. Rivers had the fifth-worst time to throw, with 2.63 seconds. Jacoby Brissett was second in the league having 2.93 seconds to throw.
And perhaps most importantly he is reunited with Frank Reich. Not only has Reich built success on adjusting schemes to players’ strengths, but he has a history with Rivers. When Rivers and Reich were together, in two seasons Rivers accumulated 9078 yards, 60 touchdowns, and 31 interceptions.
I know Rivers is older. His supporting weapons aren’t as good. And you are looking back at his abysmal showing last season. Again…don’t. Let others think about that and as his ADP drops. Swoop in. Get him.
Marlon Mack, Running Back: 2019 stats: 14 games, 247 rushing attempts, 1091 yards, eight touchdowns, 4.4 rushing average; 17 targets, 14 receptions, 12 average fantasy points per game
This is a little tricky. There is Jonathan Taylor. There is Nyheim Hines. And of course, there is the consistent chatter of having the one-two punch in the backfield. The dreaded running back by committee.
But there is good news. What is almost better than opportunity in fantasy land? Why that would be motivation. And of course, Mack is playing for next season, so there is that.
Last season Mack had career highs in carries (247), rushing yards (1091), and snaps (47 percent). But that was without Taylor breathing down his neck. I have to admit I am on the fence on this one. Taylor will take some of Mack’s carries. And Mack’s upside for passing downs is almost non-existent.
Still, I like motivation. Especially late in the rounds.
Jack Doyle, Tight End: 2019 stats: 72 targets, 43 receptions, 448 yards, four touchdowns, five drops, 4.3 average fantasy points per game
Okay, Rivers love himself some tight ends. In 2019 Rivers targeted his tight ends 89 times. And in Indianapolis, Eric Ebron is gone. Reich’s schemes loves the tight ends too. In four straight seasons, Reich’s tight ends have ranked top-five in targets for the position. Expect Doyle to become one of Rivers’ favorite targets.
Last season in a less than capable offense Doyle tied for the team lead in targets with 72. Expect similar results with more end zone looks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
We should probably treat the fantasy draft of Jacksonville players just like the team is treating the players. What the hell…let’s give it a shot.
Gardner Minshew II, Quarterback: 2019 stats: 470 passing attempts, 60.6 completion percentage, 3271 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, six interceptions; 67 rushing attempts, 344 yards, 16.4 average fantasy points per game
So his back-up is Mike Glennon. No disrespect to Glennon but I believe this solidifies Minshew will be under center all season.
Second, they added some additional weapons for him. Colorado’s Laviska Shenault who is big and strong with good hands. Then there is pass-catching running back Chris Thompson, who showed pedestrian numbers last season…but then again he was in Washington. And although the Jaguars imploded their defense, their offense is left in-tact. Despite many rumors Leonard Fournette he is still the workhorse there. Last season he added pass-catching to his repertoire, being on the end of 100 targets. His previous high in targets was 48 in 2017.
Then there is DJ Chark, Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley to count on. And least we forget although the Jaguars were one of the least efficient teams in the red zone, Pro Football Focus graded Minshew as the fourth-highest passer in the red zone.
Minshew also can get some yards with his legs.
DJ Chark, Wide Receiver: 2019 stats:118 targets, 73 receptions, 1008 yards, eight touchdowns, 13.8 yards per reception, zero drops, 10.2 average fantasy points per game
Last season be it Nick Foles or Minshew, when throwing to Chark the quarterbacks had 108.4 passer rating. Now he is coming into 2020 as Minshew’s number one wide receiver and with a new offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden.
Last season Chark was on the field for 78 percent of offensive snaps. He ran 24 percent of his routes out of the slot. Under Gruden’s offense look for him to play slot, outside while being Minshew’s number one option.
Leonard Fournette, Running Back: 2019 stats: 265 rushing attempts, 1152 yards, three touchdowns, 4.3 average rushing yards; 100 targets, 76 receptions, seven drops, 12.2 average fantasy points per game
Fournette finished last season as RB7 in PPR and RB 13 in classic fantasy formats. His top ten finish was due to his increase in targets out of the backfield. Now with Thompson in the fold that looks to decrease.
And what about those three touchdowns? Fournette only had three touchdowns for the entire season! Think about this, he led the league in red-zone touches with 50 but only finished with three touchdowns! Two exclamation points in one paragraph cannot be good.
Then there is the Jaguars did not pick up Fournette’s fifth-round option and maybe tried to trade him with no takers? In a normal situation I would say that it is motivation, but…
Fournette is to quote Winston Churchill (once again) “a riddle wrapped up in an enigma”. But then again the team could easily fit that description too. Because after trying to supposedly trade Fournette the Jaguars did not opt for a running back in the draft. So Fournette once again is the man (except maybe on passing downs).
Last season he averaged 0.6 yards before contact and 3.7 yards after contact. That was while playing against an eight-man box 31.2 percent of the time. So if he still has to play behind Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked offensive line he will still get his.
If your league is touchdown-dependent you may want to wait it out.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans overachieved last season. Chances are Derrick Henry won you your fantasy league. Do you feel a repeat?
Derrick Henry, Running Back: 2019 stats: 303 rushing attempts, 1540 yards, 16 touchdowns, 5.1 rushing average per game; 24 targets, 18 receptions, two touchdowns, two drops, 18.4 average fantasy points per game
So here is the skinny, Henry is the Titans workhorse who didn’t get paid this season. He is also game script dependent. This is good news as the Titans have the 20th hardiest strength of schedule.
There really is no reason not to take Henry. Regardless of what the Titans may think, Henry is the man that runs this offense. He isn’t going to do as much for you in PPR as other running backs, but in classic scoring, yeah why wouldn’t you?
Jonnu Smith, Tight End, 2019 stats: 44 targets, 35 receptions, 439 yards, three touchdowns, 12.5 average yards per receptions, two drops, 4.4 average fantasy points per game
There are reports that Smith and Ryan Tannehill are working out together. Now in a normal year that might not be interesting, but in a year in which we have no idea who is working out and where this is good news.
Last season Tannehill and Smith combined for 29 receptions and 342 yards. His touchdowns came at the hands of Tannehill. This year he won’t have to worry about Delanie Walker spoiling his target share.
Ryan Tannehill, Quarterback: 2019 stats: 286 passing attempts, 70.3 completion percentage, 2742 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions; 43 rushing attempts, 185 yards, four touchdowns, 18.7 average fantasy points per game
So this is the perfect quarterback for those playing in SFBX, right. He is not going to pass an ungodly amount of times, but he also isn’t going to throw a massive amount of interceptions and his completion percentage is 70 percent! #fantasycares
Tannehill is the safe option that your Mom wishes you choose. He isn’t going to make your legs weak. But in the end, he just might make your heart flutter if you stick with him.
Conclusion
Something I take for granted and I shouldn’t is that you know how your fantasy league scores. It is the single most important thing to know before you draft.
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