Until we have the last day for men to opt-out of the season for COVID-19 reasons, we are in limbo. So far the marquee names for opting out include Kansas City’s Damien Williams and New York Jets CJ Mosley, but there will be others. So now let’s go through each team in the AFC and see who is a sleeper, who is a keeper, who you should drop, with what we know.
This list is designed for those who participate in redraft leagues (although can by used for dynasty with a little tweak). Also, remember the advice to drop means proceed with caution, these men are likely to disappoint you.
BUFFALO BILLS
KEEPER: JOSH ALLEN, QUARTERBACK: Here is the skinny, when you have a quarterback who makes plays with his leg…he is a keeper. Allen finished last season third in the NFL in rushing yards by a quarterback with 510 yards. The Bills as a team finished eighth in the league with 128.4 rushing yards per game.
Now Allen has the acquisition of Stephon Diggs to his arsenal. Yes, his 58.8 percent accuracy is disappointing, but it is an improvement over his rookie average of 52.8 percent.
Allen finished last season as QB6 in fantasy scoring. As his accuracy increases, his offensive line is better and the added weapons, you should think about keeping him.
SLEEPER: DEVIN SINGLETARY, RUNNING BACK: I don’t know is Singletary a sleeper? With everyone jumping on the Diggs bandwagon, I think so.
Remember last season, even with his touchdown touches being vultured by both Frank Gore and Allen Singletary didn’t do too bad. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was good for third among running backs in the NFL. He was second in the NFL in rushes of 10+ yards per contact. And he was tied for 14th in the NFL in broken tackles (20).
Many are worried about Zack Moss taking away carries from Singletary. But we are in a truncated season and while Moss may play the role of newly departed Gore, taking some of the goal-line carries and thus touchdown away from Singletary, Singletary will get his.
DROP ‘EM LIKE HE IS HOT: STEFON DIGGS, WIDE RECEIVER: Easy, I am not telling you to not draft Diggs, that would be crazy talk. Just advising you to temper your expectations. Diggs is going from a quarterback who had 69.14 percent accuracy to one that was 58.8 percent accurate.
Yes, he is the best option at wide receiver but in a shortened season Diggs will be competing with John Brown who Allen has chemistry. So Diggs got what he wished for, just be careful that his wishes aren’t your fantasy disappointment.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
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KEEPER: RYAN FITZPATRICK, QUARTERBACK: There is always that pesky question of when Fitzpatrick will be displaced by Tua Tagovailoa? That and there is Fitzpatrick’s tendencies to have that one game that will destroy your fantasy week.
But there is also the good with Fitzpatrick. First, he is reunited with Chan Gailey, an offensive coordinator whom he has played under when Gailey was head coach in Buffalo and offensive coordinator as a New York Jet. That is reassuring during a season that the players will come in with no off-season programming and no pre-season games. The familiarity with the offense is a major plus.
SLEEPER: MIKE GESICKI, TIGHT-END: So Albert Wilson has opted out which leaves Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant, Isaiah Ford and Mack Hollins behind DeVante Parker. Of this group second year Williams was targeted 60 times for three touchdowns and 428 yards, Grant was started five games in the last two seasons, Ford played two season in the Miami with a total of 36 targets and Hollins averaged 0.8 fantasy points last season.
Enter Gesicki. Gesicki ended the season with 89 targets, 51 receptions for 570 yards and five touchdowns. In the final six weeks Gesicki finished as TE7, alluding to the gradual increase in production over the season.
Although new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is not known for his use of tight-ends, this is far from normal times. Fitzgerald and Gesicki have a rapport, which in a season with no preseason means something.
As viable wide receivers drop off a pass catching tight-end is starting to look really good.
DROP ‘EM LIKE HE’S HOT: JORDAN HOWARD, RUNNING BACK: Howard is injury prone. He is also in an offense that includes Matt Brieda, Kalen Ballage, Patrick Laird and Myles Gaskin.
Last season Howard was usurped by a rookie after returning from injury last season. A season in which he played 10 games, getting 570 yards and seven touchdowns, in those 10 games.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Um the challenge here may be who hasn’t opted out for this team?
KEEPER: CAM NEWTON, QUARTERBACK: Am I the only one who consistently forgets that Newton in now in Bill Belichick’s fold? Newton played two games last season before he season was cut short with injury. In those tow games he completed 56.2 percent of his passes. In 2018-19 season Newton ranked just above Tom Brady in his deep ball accuracy. Newton was 37.9 percent and a fraction behind was Brady at 37.5.
Here is where it gets better, Newton is more likely to toss the ball downfield to his big body wide receivers, which oh my the Patriots happen to have this season, healthy. Newton is also more likely to make a play or two with his legs. Which is always fantasy gold.
SLEEPER: N’KEAL HARRY, WIDE RECEIVER: Harry was a lot less than expected last season. He missed the first nine games and then was thrown in to help boost an inadequate receiving corps. He is now in his second year and paired with a quarterback who likes nothing more than tossing the ball downfield to his big-bodied receivers. No one is more suited to fill that role in this offense than Harry.
DROP ‘EM LIKE HE’S HOT: JULIAN EDELMAN, WIDE RECEIVER: Edelman will most likely be the drop-off for an inexperienced quarterback. He should see lots of targets. Last season with Tom Brady, Edelman led the leagues in drops. This is his 12th season, he is playing with a different, quarterback and he is injury prone.
NEW YORK JETS
Who will Adam Gase ruin this year?
DROP ‘EM LIKE HE’S HOT: SAM DARNOLD, QUARTERBACK: I want Darnold to succeed, not because I am a Jets fan (not) but because it appears he is good enough to succeed. The Jets say they want him to succeed and went into the off-season attempting to fix that porous offensive line. In the draft they acquired wide receiver Denzel Mims and in free agency got Breshad Perriman while losing Robby Anderson. His weapons are still adequate but not world turning.
And the fact is Darnold has been below average consistent in his two seasons. He did increase his completion percentage to 61.9 percent versus rookie season 57.7 percent. But he was still throwing double digit interceptions and losing the ball.
2018 stats: 13 games, 414 attempts, 239 completions, 2865 yards, 17 TD, 15 INT
2019 stats: 13 games, 441 attempts, 273 completions, 3024 yards, 19 TD, 13 INT
There is also the schedule which is one of the toughest in the NFL this season. Playing from behind as they most likely will, Darnold will be forced to force his passes, which will not help the interception and fumble rate.
SLEEPER: LEVEON BELL, RUNNING BACK: So when was the last time Bell could be considered a sleeper in fantasy football? (Welcome to the Gase years) Last season Bell accounted for four touchdowns and averaged 3.2 yards per carry. That is abysmal by normal standards and Bell is advertised as anything but normal.
Now in his second go-around in New York, Bell will run behind an improved offensive line, with the additions of Greg Van Rotten, Alex Lewis, George Fant and rookie Mekhi Becton. And of course in fantasy opportunity is everything. Even with the addition of Frank Gore and Lamical Perine, Bell is still the only game in town. And as previously mentioned his quarterback and receiving weapons haven’t improved.
The only downside is that the game script may not favor Bell and the run game being the focus of the offense.
KEEPER: JAMISON CROWDER, WIDE RECEIVER: Crowder dominated the slot position in the Jets offense. Last season he was Darnold’s first option, that shouldn’t change. He was targeted 122 times for 78 receptions, six touchdowns, while averaging 7.5 fantasy points per game.
The addition of Perriman will help ease the lost of Anderson, but should not impact Crowder’s numbers.
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