The NFC North has clear cut fantasy winners and the fantasy holograms. You know those players that you think are there for you only to find out that it was an illusion.
There is also a coach who is playing for his job, a quarterback who is playing for respect and an offense that is hoping to see a quarterback coup d’état.
But through it all there is fantasy.
Green Bay Packers
It is curious but the Packers did nothing to help their wide receiver corps. They did draft a quarterback? So are they going to break your heart and run or is there relevant fantasy points to be found on the arm of Aaron Rodgers?
Davante Adams, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 127 targets, 83 receptions, 997 yards, five touchdowns, 12 yards per reception, five drops, 10.8 average fantasy points per game
Adams missed four games last season. He was still responsible for 22.9 percent of the team’s targets. Face Rodgers only has eyes for him. And the Packers did nothing in the 2020 NFL Draft (which was loaded with receiver talent) to make him look elsewhere. Based on the route run, Pro Football Focus stated Adams was responsible for 45.1 percent of red-zone targets.
But the better news the Packers have the second easiest schedules for wide receivers.
Aaron Jones, Running Back: 2019 stats: 236 rushing attempts, 1084 yards, 16 touchdowns, 4.6 average rushing yards; 68 targets, 49 receptions, three touchdowns, five drops, 16.6 average fantasy points per game
Jones was a fantasy stud last season, finishing as RB2.
Now what the Packers did do was draft a running back AJ Dillon, to further confuse the running back situation. Last season Jones ranked eighth in the league in yards from scrimmage with 1558. Jamaal Williams chipped in helping to lift the duo to 2291 total yards and 25 total touchdowns. Now enter Dillon.
It is unlikely that Dillon will take over the targets from Jones. However, he may vulture some of the goal line opportunities. Jones is still valuable though, being as the Packers’ running backs were responsible for 24.5 percent of the passing targets. Jones is still on the board for a good chunk of that.
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Allen Lazard, Wide Receiver: stats 2019:52 targets, 35 receptions, 477 yards, three touchdowns, 13.6 yards per reception, four drops, 5.6 average fantasy points per game
The common wisdom is that the Packers will be running the ball a lot more. This is true. But I am betting Rodgers wasn’t too keen on the acquisition of quarterback Jordan Love. So Rodgers has something to prove. Lazard will be the beneficiary of that rebellious streak.
In 2019, Lazard didn’t catch a pass until week six. From week six until the end of the year he finished second on the team in air yards, yards per target, yards per game and yards per route run.
Chicago Bears
Will it be Mitch Trubisky or Nick Foles under center? Does it really matter? The Bears’ offensive line was ranked 25th according to Pro Football Focus. That showed. There were players that played well despite the poor offensive line play.
Allen Robinson, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 154 targets, 98 receptions, 1147 yards, seven touchdowns, 11.7 yards per reception, six drops, 9.8 average fantasy points per game
Robinson excels despite who is under center.
David Montgomery, Running Back: stats 2019: 242 rushing attempts, 889 yards, six touchdowns, 3.7 rushing average; 35 targets, 25 receptions, one touchdown, one drop, 9.1 average fantasy points per game
Okay, let’s just get this out the offensive line for the Bears is not good. They ranked 29th per FootballOutsiders.com, with 3.86 adjusted line yards, and 3.56 running back yards (for comparison the number one ranked line was New Orleans Saints with 4.92 adjusted line yards and 4.56 running back yards).
Montgomery was a fantasy fail last season in part because of the offensive line, in part because of the quarterback play and in part because he just didn’t excel when he should have. He had the sixth-most inside the five-yard line carries among all running backs last season and only managed six rushing touchdowns. That’s a fail.
However, this year there is a possible upgrade under center. And head coach Matt Nagy and offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has already stated desire to run the ball more. That is opportunities for Montgomery that cannot be overlooked.
Last season he carried the ball 61.3 percent of the time. And now with Tarik Cohen looking at a contract year, there is a chance Montgomery will improve on his targets out of the backfield.
Remember last year was his rookie season. The Bears did not add any competition to the running back position. So it is Montgomery or bust.
Anthony Miller, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 85 targets, 52 receptions, 656 yards, two touchdowns, 12.6 yards per reception, six drops, 4.7 average fantasy points per game
Miller was on the field for 64 of the offensive snaps. From weeks 11-16 he saw 55 targets, 34 catches, 433 yards, and two touchdowns. Hopefully, he rides that momentum into the 2020 season.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings famously paid their quarterback a butt-load of money. Now they have let go of their frustrated wide receiver Stefon Diggs. So what’s up?
Dalvin Cook, Running Back: stats 2019: 250 rushing attempts, 1135 yards, 13 touchdowns, 4.5 rushing average; 63 targets, eight drops, 17.1 average fantasy points per game
Cook is a fantasy stud. He is also threatening to hold-out unless he gets a “reasonable deal”. So forget that he had 62.5 percent of the team’s rushes inside the five-yard line. And try not to remember that he had 63 targets.
Just hope he doesn’t hold-out.
Adam Thielen, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 48 targets, 30 receptions, 418 yards, six touchdowns, 13.9 yards per receptions, two drops, 8.4 average fantasy points per game
Last season Thielen only played in 10 games, due to injury. This year he won’t be sharing targets with Diggs. And try to remember that the two years he did have to share time with Diggs, he had 155 targets and nine touchdowns in 2018 and 143 targets and four touchdowns in 2017.
Thielen is WR1 in Minnesota. Sure the Vikings only passed on 51.70 percent of their plays. But if over 70 percent (my estimation) is going to Thielen that is fantasy good.
Justin Jefferson, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: Rookie 2020
I know Alexander Mattison would have been a choice here. But I am going with the consensus number one wide receiver in the draft who was overlooked. According to the BleacherReport scouting report, he has “great hands, huge red-zone target, and ran a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash.” Someone has to take over Diggs targets.
Detroit Lions
What to do….what to do?
Matthew Stafford, Quarterback: stats 2019: 8 games played, 291 passing attempts, 64.3 completion percentage, 2499 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, five interceptions; 20 rushing attempts, 20.8 average fantasy points per game
Stafford wasn’t looking too bad before he left with an injury. In the weeks he was on the field he was QB6, with four 300-plus yards games.
Now, remember the Lions got rid of Darius Slay which does nothing to help their generous passing defense. This means the Lions will most likely be playing from behind, making it necessary for Stafford to air it out.
Kenny Golladay, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 116 targets, 65 receptions, 1190 yards, 11 touchdowns, 18.3 yards per reception, eight drops, 11.4 average fantasy points per game
Golladay scored 11 touchdowns finishing as WR9, playing most of the season without Stafford. It really shouldn’t be hard to imagine him being a top-five fantasy wide receiver with Stafford.
TJ Hockenson, Tight End: stats 2019: 59 targets, 32 receptions, 367 yards, two touchdowns, 11.5 yards per reception, three drops, 4.1 average fantasy points per game
Hockenson had one really good game last season, which was in week one against Arizona Cardinals. He finished that game with 19.1 fantasy points. He didn’t get above nine fantasy points in a game for the rest of the season.
The good news: 1) his blocking ability will keep him on the field, and 2) in a Stafford led offense his ceiling is unlimited.
The NFC North is going to provide you with fantasy opportunities. Don’t waste them.
Come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt
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