We see it every year. An RB greatly exceeds expectations during the season and it forces us to adjust our rankings the following season as we watch their ADP climb throughout the summer. My all-time favorite example of regression was in 2013 when Zac Stacy (Rams RB) came on the scene as a rookie and finished the season with 250 carries for 973 yards and 7 TDs. Even more impressive, he didn’t start until week five. He was going to be the next great RB and fantasy owners rejoiced as they claimed him off the waiver wire. As a result, his ADP rose from waiver wire wonder to 17th overall in 2014! However, in 2014, Stacy disappointed every fantasy owner with only 76 carries, 293 yards and 1 TD. Two years later, he was out of the league.
There are other examples like the one above, and hopefully, you have not fallen victim to a player like this, because it can drastically affect the outcome of your season! As fantasy managers, it is our job to ensure that we set our expectations each season and look at the reality of each player’s situation. I want to breakdown three RBs that I believe are due for regression this season.
Todd Gurley
2019 Stats: 223 carries for 857 yards, 12 TDs; 31 receptions for 207 yards, 2 TDs
Todd Gurley finds himself on a new team entering the 2020 season. The Atlanta Falcons signed Gurley to a one year contract worth $5.5 million on April 6, 2020. The signing came three weeks after the Falcons released RB Devonta Freeman. As a result, Gurley is entering a high powered offense that will plug him in immediately. However, be warned; injury history is an issue! Gurley has a list of injuries dating back to his college football days at Georgia:
2013 – Ankle Sprain
2014 – Grade 3 ACL Tear
2015 – Turf Toe
2018 – Grade 1 Knee Strain
2019 – Leg Quad Strain
This lengthy history of injuries is not going to disappear as long as Gurley is used as the workhorse RB. In his five NFL seasons with the Rams, he has averaged 253 rushing attempts each season. Gurley will be 26 in August and if the Falcons want him as their featured back for a few years, they will need to monitor his carries and workload, in order to protect his body and his knees. Because he was the focal point of the Rams offense, Gurley has averaged 18 total TDs each season for the past three seasons. He will not repeat those lofty numbers this season. Book that. The Falcons thrive on passing the ball and have the WRs to continue to do so. To go a step further, take a look at the 2019 Atlanta Falcons offense: Of the total plays in 2019, the Falcons passed 65% and rushed 35%. That doesn’t scream “Workhorse RB” to me. Gurley will be an excellent RB2 candidate, but don’t expect him to reach those lofty RB1 numbers again.
2020 Projection: 180 carries for 820 yards, 8 TDs; 45 receptions for 345 yards, 2 TDs
Aaron Jones
2019 Stats: 236 carries for 1,084 yards, 16 TDs; 49 receptions for 474 yards, 3 TDs
This one may seem obvious to some, but Aaron Jones is almost certainly due for regression in the TD category this season. Since his rookie year in 2017, Jones has averaged 10.66 total TDs each season. However, that number is spiked due to his 19 total TDs last year. Like Gurley, Aaron Jones has had durability issues as well, suffering knees sprains during his first two seasons. As a result, the Green Bay Packers were quick to select RB A.J. Dillon out of Boston College, 62nd overall in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The Packers didn’t draft Dillon that early to sit on the bench the entire year. Jones is in his third year and only 25 years old! So why did they draft Dillon? For one, Aaron Jones stands at 5’10 and 207 pounds. Dillon stands at 6’0 and 247 pounds. That tells me one item on Green Bay’s agenda: “Goal-line back.” If that’s the case, this will easily affect the value of Jones as TD opportunities will diminish inside the 5-yard line.
I see Aaron Jones as an RB2 this season and I am going to be careful where I draft him. I don’t want to reach on draft day and I don’t see him finishing with top ten numbers. His current ADP is RB11 and I would be happy if he fell to me at RB15.
2020 Projection: 210 carries for 1,025 yards, 7 TDs; 40 receptions for 420 yards, 2 TDs
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Mark Ingram
2019 Stats: 202 carries for 1,018 yards, 10 TDs; 26 receptions for 247 yards, 5 TDs
Mark Ingram is entering his tenth (!) season in the NFL. He is now 30 years old and will be turning 31 during the 2020 season. However, Ingram did not disappoint fantasy owners last season, recording over 200 carries and 15 total TDs while finishing as the RB11 in PPR formats. The only other RBs to record 15 or more total TDs were Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones. Not too shabby indeed!
But let’s look a bit further here:
1. RB Gus Edwards and RB Justice Hill return to the Ravens backfield. Last season, they combined for 191 carries.
2. The Ravens used their second-round pick (55th overall) in the 2020 NFL Draft to select J.K. Dobbins, RB out of Ohio State. Dobbins has been described as a versatile RB without limitations. With such a high pick invested in Dobbins, the Ravens will look to employ his skill set often.
3. The Ravens had 596 carries last season, including Lamar Jackson.
When you add Dobbins into the backfield that already includes Ingram, Edwards, Hill and Jackson (176 carries last season), you start to see Ingram’s rushing attempts and overall workload beginning to decrease. I see Ingram’s workload lessening as the season progresses and he will be a borderline RB2/RB3 for me, leaning on the RB3 side.
2020 Projection: 145 carries for 695 yards, 5 TDs; 20 receptions for 180 yards, 1 TD
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