In Kirk’s first season as Arizona’s primary weapon, Kirk saw a major increase in every statistical category for a receiver. However, Kirk’s season production was still somewhat of a disappointment even though there were plenty of bright spots and signs of what he has the ability to be. Some of this was due to Arizona drafting Kyler Murray with last year’s number one pick in the NFL Draft, which forced them play conservative at times.
Kirk saw his targets increase from 68 to 108 and his receptions rise from 43 to 68. While sounding promising on paper, these extra 25 receptions and 40 targets only yielded an additional 119 yards from his rookie season in 2018. After recording three touchdowns in his first season, Kirk again found the end-zone just three times in 2019. The young star also saw his YPC drop from 13.7 to a measly 10.4.
So, after an improved, but somewhat disappointing, second season for Kirk, what should we expect from him in 2020?
First things first, Kirk will not once again be the number one option on the outside for Murray after Arizona’s acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins last month. Although the trade hasn’t been finalized just yet with the NFL Draft just under two weeks away, coach Cliff Kingsbury said that he has “no doubt it’ll be done before the draft.”
Hopkins, arguably the best receiver in the league, will generate most of the attention of opposing defenses when Murray drops back this season. In turn, Kirk will be getting most team’s number two CB, which should allow him to create mismatches and win 1v1’s on a more consistent basis than last year on lesser corners. This sounds like a recipe for a higher average YPC and catch percentage even with the probability of a smaller target share.
Kyler Murray will also be entering his second year in the league in Arizona. Kirk has the luxury of an already established rapport with Murray, so that bodes well for Kirk in a year that is usually a make or break year for young quarterbacks. Murray was just shy of completing 64.5% of his passes and threw for 3,722 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The addition of Hopkins surely spells for Murray to exceed 4,000 yards in the air and improving on his completion percentage in the process.
All signs point to Christian Kirk becoming a fringe top-20 fantasy receiver this year after closing out the 2019 season as the WR38, although injuries are still the biggest concern for Kirk. Having missed four games as a rookie and three games last season, Kirk has to stay healthy in order to reach his potential in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
Even with the arrival of Hopkins, Kirk should still remain Arizona’s primary deep threat. I don’t see his production taking a hit at all, but it should actually increase from a fantasy perspective. Arizona has a real possibility of owning top-10 fantasy players at every position on offense and should be a very potent one come 2020. Kirk’s ceiling is inside the top-20 with Hopkins now there, specifically around the WR17 spot.
2019 Stats: 68 Receptions on 108 Targets, 709 Yards, 3 Touchdowns, 10.4 YPC
2020 Projections: 87 Receptions on 122 Targets, 1,042 Yards, 6 Touchdowns, 11.98 YPC
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