As was the case for a lot of players, 2020 was a rough one for Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman. In 42 games (180 plate appearances), he posted a .242/.350/.451 slash-line (.801 OPS) with six home runs and 22 RBI. Jokes about the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme being uncovered and the impact that had on some hitters were easy.
But Bregman also missed basically three weeks with a hamstring issue, which resurfaced already in spring training but doesn’t appear to be a big issue. Bregman added significant muscle this offseason, so he’s back to the 207 pounds he played at in 2018 and 2019. He finished top-5 in MVP voting in both of those seasons. In 2019, he hit .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs and 112 RBI as he won a Silver Slugger.
Bregman is an easily tabbed rebound candidate for 2021, in real and fantasy terms. But what are his chances to actually rebound?
A short, and injury-shortened, season like Bregman had in 2020 requires a look at deeper numbers. So let’s do it (via Statcast and FanGraphs).
Exit Velocity: 2018-89.4 MPH; 2019-89.3 MPH: 2020-88.9 MPH
BABIP: 2018-.289; 2019-.281; 2020-.254
Line Drive/Ground Ball/Fly Ball Rates (%): 2018-21.9/34.6/43.4; 2019-22.5/31.5/45.9; 2020-25/33.6/41.4
Launch Angle: 2018-16.8; 2019-19.6; 2020-17.3
The drop in fly ball rate last year was spurred by the drop in launch angle, and it took Bregman’s home run/fly ball rate with it (11.3%, from 18.6% in 2019 and 14% in 2018). His hard hit rate also dropped.
Other advanced metrics point to 2019’s 41 home runs as an unrepeatable outlier. Some of his major league-high 51 doubles from 2018 cleared the fence, with a spike in launch angle and home run/fly ball rate that corrected back (overcorrected?) last season.
Bregman’s plate discipline and contact metrics were stable and within range of his previous marks last year, so that’s good. With a h/t to Scott White of CBS Sports, here’s what he did over his first 42 games of 2018. This is where I remind you he played 42 games in 2020.
.258/.378/.400, three home runs, 16 RBI (185 plate appearances). Bregman finished at .286/.394/.532 (.926 OPS), 31 home runs, 103 RBI, 51 doubles, 105 runs scored and 10 stolen bases in 2018.
2019’s home run output is not coming back for Bregman, due to the differences in the baseball that are coming, etc. Double-digit steals will be a hard bargain too. But he is a multi-category asset, and an a particular asset in points leagues with those across the board numbers. Fantasy Pros ADP Consensus has him at the 35th overall pick right now, and the sixth third baseman off the board. In a 12-team league, that’s late third-round.
Alex Bregman 2021 Projection: .285/.390/.525, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 102 runs scored, 5 SB
Rebound Confidence: 73%
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