Aaron Jones has finished as the RB3 and RB4 in PPR fantasy points per game in the two seasons since becoming the “full-time starter” for Green Bay.
The RB free-agent class is paper-thin, but there is one gem at the top. He’s a dynamic and efficient weapon out of the backfield who will improve whatever team he plays for in 2021.
Embed from Getty ImagesThere are two important questions for fantasy football managers:
- How much is his efficiency compromised by not having Aaron Rodgers as his QB?
- Is there a landing spot where he can continue his top five production?
The original narrative I planned to craft was a low-volume, high-efficiency RB whose production was unsustainable elsewhere. The facts have course-corrected me and I’m thankful for that.
Jones has been a top 10 RB in total touches over his two seasons as a starter. That was very surprising to me. I chalked his fantasy finishes up to TDs and a robust 5.2 yards per attempt career average. He is not going to be a 25+ opportunity per game RB, but he can be the effective one in a one-two punch backfield.
Up first…
Miami Dolphins
Miami has been the long-rumored destination for Jones. Vegas believes so as well as they are +300 and the favorites to acquire his services.
This team proved it can produce a top-tier RB for fantasy football. Myles Gaskin finished as a top 10 RB in PPR points per game (min. eight games played). Salvon Ahmed started three games and finished as the RB14, RB19, and RB11.
There isn’t an argument on any planet that those two RBs are better than Aaron Jones. A superior talent on a team with a great defense and a burgeoning, young offense… sign me up!
New York Jets
Lamical Perine is the starting RB right now according to Ourlads. Let that wash over you in a fetid cloud of mediocrity.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Now breathe deep the fresh air created by Aaron Jones cutting behind a surprisingly good run-blocking offensive line. The Jets desperately need playmakers, so why not bring in a player who had eight breakaway runs (RB12) and averaged 5.9 yards per touch (RB4).
They have the second-most cap space and a penchant for spending big money on RB free agents.
San Francisco 49ers
Suggesting Sand Francisco as a free agent RB landing spot is equivalent to screaming “SEX” in a crowded room… its an attention grabber. Luckily, this situation is more than arbitrary; it makes a lot of sense for both parties.
It is well documented that Kyle Shanahan’s offense turns any RB into a world-beater. It helped transform Raheem Mostert from practice squad hang around to the RB11 in Weeks 13-17 in 2019. Speaking of Mostert…
Cutting him would save the team almost $3.2 million in cap space while allowing them enough money to re-sign Trent Williams and add Jones to the backfield.
Jones and Jeff Wilson Jr. would be a potent backfield duo. A duo to give defensive coordinators nightmares and give fantasy managers championships.
Arizona Cardinals
Kenyan Drake is a free agent, Kyler Murray took a massive step forward in 2020, DeAndre Hopkins is preventing defenses from loading the box, and Kliff Kingsbury is looking suave in his bajillion dollar house.
Drake was not the success many predicted him to be with Arizona, but Jones is a different level of RB in terms of talent. He would thrive in the spread offense concept. He ran 465 routes out of the backfield in 2020 while average 1.43 yards per route run (RB11).
Think about the devastating goal line looks this team could offer opponents with Jones, Hopkins, Chase Edmonds, and Murray!
Fantasy managers would do well to temper any 16 TD expectations because Murray is a TD vulture.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Insert obligatory “every free agent goes to Jacksonville” excerpt. This one makes a ton of sense though!
James Robinson was incredible in 2020 as an undrafted free agent (UDFA). The history of UDFA success (Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, and Fred Jackson) at the RB position is littered with players like Philip Lindsay. Talented runners who, because of their lack of draft capital, are not trusted to continue their initial success.
This team has almost $73m to play with to create a fruitful environment around their number one pick. Whether they pick Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or Zach Wilson. A good-to-great QB on a rookie deal with tons of talent around him is the greatest situation in the NFL.
I’m not normally enamored with paying an RB upwards of $12m per year, but it makes sense given the Jaguars’ situation.
Time to answer the questions…
Embed from Getty ImagesHis efficiency will most likely be compromised at any of these landing spots. Perhaps San Francisco by way of scheme can help replicate it to a degree, but the key piece to understanding his efficiency lies in game script.
Jones enjoyed the third-best game script in 2020 and the eighth-best in 2019. It’s safe to project none of these teams to be as dominant as the Green Bay Packers have been over the last two seasons.
I do not expect him to continue his top-five production unless one of these teams allows him 25+ opportunities per game. That’s not the role he is suited for at 5’9″ 208 lbs. His frame may be able to withstand that workload for a while, but sustained success for a 26-year-old slighter-framed RB with that volume is not historically projectable.
All-in-all Aaron Jones will be an RB I’m looking to sell high when his landing spot is announced. Capitalize on the excitement it generates and garner future and present assets for your dynasty team.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
