Mock drafts are serious business. The art of incepting the thought process of an NFL front office for both conversation purposes and potential gambling profit is now an annual rite of spring. While a google search of the process originator revealed nothing, one can safely assume either Mel Kiper or Gil Brandt were involved. Despite the inherent unpredictability – see Clelin Ferrell – there is value in lining up potential strategies and team targets. Time for my only 2021 Mock Draft, where we identify some potential Draftking plays.
Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
The easiest pick of the entire process, and not a single prop is offered on this pick.
Pick 2: New York Jets – Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
The Jets have seemingly been locked on this pick for the past month. At this point, it would be a surprise to see it flip; DraftKings also offers no plays on this pick.
Pick 3: San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Every year the draft has a different “starting point.” This year it starts at three. After the 49ers moved up with three potential quarterback options on the board, it is anyone’s bet where they land. Mac Jones is the betting favorite at -167 on Draftkings, but the markets have fluctuated. At +400, Lance represents the best value play. The last possible play would be Justin Fields, sitting at +175.
Pick 4: Atlanta Falcons – Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
With two highly thought of quarterbacks on the board, the Falcons must weigh replacing their longtime franchise face Matt Ryan, trading the pick to a team desperate for a quarterback, or take a player like Kyle Pitts to boost a final run with Ryan. I have outlined the trade scenario in another piece. If Fields makes it to this pick, he will be hard to pass. He grew up 33 minutes outside of Atlanta and would be a marketing bonanza for the team. Playing this specific pick on Draftkings can yield +400 odds, an exciting value proposition.
Pick 5: Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
The rumors on this pick are all over the board between one of the top tackles (Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater), tight end Kyle Pitts, or Joe Burrow’s college teammate Ja’Marr Chase. All would help, but the Bengals lead the league in three WR sets in 2020 at a 76% rate and currently project Auden Tate or Mike Thomas (not THAT Mike Thomas) next to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Chase allows them to have one of the best young three WR packages in the league. It’s worth noting, the draft falling in this order, Lance-Fields-Chase grants a very enticing +2,500 line.
Pick 6: TRADE Dallas Cowboys – Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida (Pick 6 for 10, Dallas ’22 1st)
Jerry Jones is outspoken in his interest for Pitts, and with him falling down the board a bit, the opportunity is ripe for a move. Now that Dak Prescott is locked up long term, the team’s closest route to contention may be building the best offense possible. The play on this move would be Kyle Pitts +125 on lasting after pick 5. The attractive swing is the Cowboys coming in at +1,600 to take a tight end first. Jerry Jones tends to get what he wants.
Pick 7: TRADE Los Angeles Chargers – Penei Sewell, LT, Oregon (Pick 7, 112 for 13, 47)
The Chargers have been active in rebuilding their depth chart, signing Corey Linsley and Bryan Bulaga in successive offseasons. A long-term LT to pair with his college teammate Justin Herbert and help solidify the line would solve a massive hole for this organization and prove worth the move up. The Chargers selecting an offensive lineman for their first pick yields a fair value at -110 but represents a safe bet as even without a move up, the team could still find value in the position at their selection.
Pick 8: TRADE New England Patriots – Mac Jones, QB, Alabama (Pick 8, 113 for 15, 46)
The Patriots move up to grab Mac Jones before they risk Denver taking him at number nine. Cam Newton is a short-term option, and the team was discouraged with Jarrett Stidham’s development in camp last year. Jones is a cerebral QB who approaches the game similar to Tom Brady, a proven mesh with Josh McDaniels. Draftkings has QB as the most likely position for New England to select with odds at +150.
Pick 9: Denver Broncos – Rashawn Slater, LT, Northwestern
The Broncos re-signed LT Garrett Bolles in November to a 4-year extension. He locks up the left side, but Ja’Waun James has only played three games after the Broncos signed him before the 2019 season. Slater represents the best value on the board and will allow the Broncos to lock in bookend tackles. You can grab +700 odds on Denver selecting him.
Pick 10: TRADE Miami Dolphins – Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St
Parsons may be the most explosive defensive player in the draft. He’s a swiss army knife. Brian Flores could line up all over his defense formation and the type of player to bring an already strong defense up another level. The Dolphins taking a defensive player with their first pick is a very aggressive play, but at +675, it could pay off very well.
Pick 11: New York Giants – Alijah Vera- Tucker, OL, USC
Dave Gettleman has committed to building this team via the trenches. Vera-Tucker is a versatile OL prospect who likely projects to start as a guard but could potentially slide outside if needed. There are very high odds on this being the pick, +1,600. However, a more conservative play would be an offensive lineman as the team’s first pick, coming at +300.
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Pick 12: Philadelphia Eagles – Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Surtain II to the Eagles represents the perfect blend of value and need. The Eagles have looked for reliable CB play for years and land the top player on many boards. Surtain II as the Eagles pick would fetch +300 odds, while the team gives the second-lowest highest to any CB (+175) or (+124) to any defensive player.
Pick 13: TRADE Detroit Lions – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
No team in the league needs WRs more than the Lions. In this mock, they trade down and still accomplish landing a player they have a great chance at taking with their original seventh overall pick. The Lions are +120 to draft a WR with their first pick; given the potential options available wherever their selection may land and their overwhelming need, it may be one of the safest value bets on the board.
Pick 14: Minnesota Vikings – Kwitty Paye, DE, Michigan
The Vikings were one of the worst teams in the league at creating pressure, finishing in the bottom five in sacks. Paye is the top edge rusher on many boards. Another opportunity to blend value and need. A defensive player is +108 to be the Vikings’ first pick; however, given the team needs and the value on the board, picking a defensive lineman at +225 is the better play.
Pick 15: TRADE Carolina Panthers – Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
The Panthers are rebuilding their defense around youth and preach a mantra of “Play Hard.” Horn is the embodiment of that sentiment, a very physical corner that fills one of the team’s most significant needs and offers the versatility the Panthers value in players like Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, and Shaq Thompson. CB is the second most likely of any Panther’s position selection and offers +400 odds, while any defensive player is a more conservative proposition bringing +180.
Pick 16: Arizona Cardinals – Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
The Cardinals run more four WR sets than any team in the league by a wide margin, 20% of the time compared to 2nd place Buffalo at 15% and 3rd place Tampa down at 5%. They added veteran AJ Green in the offseason, but Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella have failed to live up to their draft positions. Smith could slide due to concerns about his weight, but it would be a fantastic compliment to DeAndre Hopkins, and the value on WR going off the board first is enticing at +350.Â
Pick 17: Las Vegas Raiders – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
The Mayock-Gruden regime has repeatedly deferred to premier college programs when it comes to first-round draft picks. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s scheme has relied on versatile linebackers who can cover space similar to Myles Jack. The current defense desperately needs this type, and Owusu-Koramoah fills this while falling into the team’s typical draft profile. The Raiders selecting a linebacker first gives +220 odds.
Pick 18: Miami Dolphins – Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami
With the team’s first pick, we gave them the versatile Micah Parsons. Phillips would push Flores’s defense that much further. Perhaps the most athletic edge in the draft would pair well with Parsons to push the Dolphins into the upper echelon of defenses. Some view Phillips as the best edge in the draft, which makes it unlikely he lasts past pick 21.5, granting -112 odds to go before that pick.
Pick 19: Washington Football Team – Christian Darrisaw, T, Virginia Tech
The Football Team has yet to replace the departed Trent Williams, and tackle remains a need. Darrisaw is a local prospect and fills a necessity with the offensive line as the teams most likely pick at +140.
Pick 20: Chicago Bears – Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
The team moved on from Kyle Fuller to save cap room but opened a glaring need in the process. Newsome is another local prospect who matches need and value. CB is a lower odds play for the Bears at +350, while simply playing defense gives +250 odds.
Pick 21: Indianapolis Colts – Teven Jenkins, T, Oklahoma St
With Anthony Castonzo’s retirement, the Colts have a glaring need at LT. Jenkins is a mauler and fits well with the team’s emphasis on easing Carson Wentz into a new structure by utilizing the run game. The Colts taking an offensive lineman is a +120 proposition, an easy bet giving their lack of glaring needs elsewhere.
Pick 22: Tennessee Titans – Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
The Titans have been rewarded with gambles on injury red flags in the past. Multiple back surgeries, including one in the past month, make Farley extremely difficult to peg on value. For a player who may have been the first defensive player off the board, Farely’s range now lands all over. CB is a need for Tennessee after losing Adoree Jackson in FA, and it’s the most likely pick on the board at +225.
Pick 23: New York Jets – Jamin Davis, LB, Kentucky
The Jets took their QB with their first pick and now get a chance to take a future leader of their defense. C.J. Mosley returns from a covid opt-out, though Saleh’s defense has always employed a lighter MLB who can cover more group, a role Davis fits perfectly. Davis crushed his pro-day performance, posting a 4.37 40 yard dash and a 42″ vertical jump. Draftkings odds have a linebacker has a significant value play, +600, interesting considering the value players at this pick and the need at the position.
Pick 24: Pittsburgh Steelers – Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama
This pick is risky; Dickerson has medical flags on multiple team boards. That said, the offensive line is a huge need position for the Steelers, and he would walk in as a day one starter in the middle of the line. The Steelers traditionally use first-round picks on O-linemen or defense, despite landing as a popular RB mock destination. The offensive line is a +200 proposition; considering the team could take any player along the line and fill a hole, the value is substantial with that play.
Pick 25: Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehring, S, TCU
Urban Meyer’s defense has always relied heavily on safety play, and the position stands as a glaring need on the current roster. Moehring is an athletic safety whose versatility will give former Meyer recruit and current NFL starter Vonn Bell visions. Safety is the Jaguars most likely second 1st rounder, at +300 odds.
Pick 26: Cleveland Browns – Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
The Browns have continuously added to their defensive via FA, bringing in S John Johnson III, nickel Troy Hill, and lately DE Jadeveon Clowney. Collins helps complete the defense build-up. He is a classic “AFC North” archetype, a massive 6’4″ 260 lb thumper who can line up in multiple positions. Linebacker is the Browns most likely selection at +250, and it is the last position GM Andrew Berry has addressed.
Pick 27: Baltimore Ravens – Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama
Barmore is another player whose range could be all over the draft, but a possible slide lines up perfectly with the Ravens’ history to selecting players from big schools who slip a bit. Given Derek Wolfe and Calais Campbell’s veteran status, the defensive line could emerge as a considerable need quickly for this team. The defensive line comes in third on value for the Ravens at +450, but the depth of the WR class could allow the team to skip the position and still get a quality player later.
Pick 28: New Orleans Saints – Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn St.
The Saints lost Trey Hendrickson in FA, and Cameron Jordan is entering his age 32 season with the twilight on the horizon. Oweh gives the Saints a rotational pass rusher who could grow in the role. Quarterback or CB could be a consideration; CB and DL are both +300, while defense sits at a big favorite coming in at -143.
Pick 29: Green Bay Packers – Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
The Packers offense features heavy jet motion sets, a role previously employed by Tyler Ervin. To say an upgrade is necessary is an understatement. Toney would likely surprise many as the 4th WR off the board, but he is a scheme fit for the Packers and a makeup to Aaron Rodgers after last year’s selection of Jordan Love. WR is the favorite of the Packers’ pick, at +200, while the offense is a safer play giving their Oline need, coming in at -150.
Pick 30: Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
Edge is a huge need for the Bills, even after selecting AJ Epenesa in last year’s draft. Jerry Hughes will be 33 before the season, and Mario Addison will be 34. Rousseau could go higher in the draft, though skipping 2020 and a subpar pro day has seen his stock slip slightly. Defense is an overwhelming favorite at -210, with CB as the slight favorite at +275, with DL just behind at +300.
Pick 31: Baltimore Ravens – Alex Leatherwood, T, Alabama
The Ravens traded Orlando Brown in a package to the Cheifs for this pick and additional assets. Leatherwood gives the Ravens a two year starter at LT and resets their salary obligations on the position. DraftKings has a prop for total Alabama players in the first round at 5.5, the line does not pay much but is safe at -200.
Pick 32: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia
The pass rush was vital for the Buccaneers on the way to their Super Bowl Championship. Ojulari is a player valued all over the board but gives the Buccaneers a chance to stack strength on strength and continue to build their defense from the front back. DL is the clear betting favorite for the Bucs at +200, and the play matches the potential value at this pick.
Overall Draft Plays:
For more from Jeff, follow him on Twitter @4WhomJBellTolls or with FantasyPros.
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