2021 Player Outlook: Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington

RB Antonio Gibson (WFT)

2020 PPR Ranking: RB13

Offseason Changes

• New quarterback-Ryan Fitzpatrick
• WR Curtis Samuel, WR Dyami Brown, WR Adam Humphries added

Projected Stats: 1,000-1,050 rushing yards, 10 TD; 45 receptions for 430 yards, 1 TD

2021 PPR Projected Ranking: RB9

Overall Outlook

Antonio Gibson mostly played wide receiver in college at Memphis. But he was an intriguing 2020 NFL Draft prospect as a running back, and Washington used a third-round pick on him. After an off-field issue took Derrius Guice off the roster and Adrian Peterson was cut close to Week 1, the door was open for Gibson and he ran through it.

In 14 games as a rookie, or essentially 13 games since he only played four snaps in Week 13 before suffering a turf toe injury, Gibson put up over 1,000 total yards with 11 rushing touchdowns and 36 catches on 44 targets. There has been plenty of preseason hype, with Washington coaches expecting a big leap from him this year as he refines his game. With some past Carolina Panthers coaches in place, including head coach Ron Rivera and offensive coordinator Scott Turner, the comparisons to Christian McCaffrey have been easy (too easy, really).

Washington did not add a running back this season before signing Jaret Patterson as an undrafted free agent. So Gibson remains entrenched as the No. 1 running back, and the offense should be better with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. According to Pro Football Focus Gibson was No. 1 in rushing grade (83.4) and second in missed tackles forced (37) last year, with four touchdown runs of 10-plus yards (most) and the highest percentage of runs that gained positive yardage since 2012 (96.2 percent)

That said, J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber remain in place behind Gibson. McKissic led all running backs in targets last year (110), catching 80 for 589 yards and two touchdowns. As good as Gibson was as a touchdown scorer, Barber vultured a fair amount of goal line opportunities and production last season (h/t to Tyler Loechner of FTN Fantasy).

As Gibson’s role in the passing game feels sure to expand, McKissic will not get 110 targets again. The switch from Alex Smith to the more aggressive Fitzpatrick means the check-downs that McKissic ate off from Smith in 2020 won’t be as prevalent in Washington’s offense this year. If you look up “mediocre running back” in the dictionary, Barber’s picture is one that will be next to the definition. All signs point to Gibson getting all the work he can handle, and 275-300 touches is possible.

In his first eight games last year, Gibson averaged 4.34 yards per carry with seven runs of 10 yards or more (the latter note via ESPN’s John Keim). In his last six games, Gibson averaged 5.05 yards per carry with 14 runs of 10 yards or more (the latter note also via Keim). Deeper stats, via ESPN Stats and Information, show notable improvement for Gibson in yards before and after contact as his rookie season went on.

In rankings and ADP right now, Gibson is coming in at RB12. He was RB13 in full PPR, RB14 in standard scoring and RB12 in half-PPR last year, while basically missing three games. So there is definitely some broad pessimism that he’ll make a significant leap this year, but as draft season ramps up Gibson stands as someone who’s ADP is likely to rise.

It’s easy to go all-in on Gibson, with expectations in line with fantasy elite of present (McCaffrey) and past (LaDainian Tomlinson) for his second season. I can’t quite get there. But a finish in the range of RB8-RB10 in any scoring format is well within reach, with upside for more and potential value in an early second-round ADP if it holds close to that range.

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