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QB Baker Mayfield (CLE)
2020 PPR Ranking: QB17
Offseason Changes
- None
Projected Stats: 3,500-3,700 passing yards, 25-30 passing touchdowns, 2 rush TD
2021 PPR Projected Ranking: QB16
Overall Outlook
After a dismal 2019 season (22 touchdowns, 21 interceptions), Baker Mayfield rebounded last year with an efficient campaign (26 touchdowns, eight interceptions). Kevin Stefanski’s run-oriented scheme also helped yield 11 regular season wins and a playoff victory for the Browns, so that offensive formula is not going away.
In six games with Odell Beckham last season (Beckham played just two snaps before being injured Week 7), Mayfield averaged 182.5 passing yards and 13.58 fantasy points (-1 for an INT) per game. In 10 games without Beckham, he averaged 246.8 passing yards per game and 17.4 fantasy points per game. It’s a reach to definitively say Mayfield is better without Beckham, but there’s statistical proof pointing to it.
From Week 10-16 last year, Mayfield was QB13 in fantasy over a favorable stretch of schedule. He had multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games during the middle of that stretch (Week 12-15), averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game over that time. From Week 12-15 Mayfield was QB3, behind only Josh Allen and Ryan Tannehill.
Mayfield threw the ball more than 30 times just six times in 16 games last year. Four of those were came in consecutive weeks from Week 13-16, and he threw for at least 285 yards in all four. From Week 11-17, he averaged 285 passing yards per game with an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also averaged nearly 37 attempts per game over that span, perhaps a sign of the governor being taken off by Stefanski going forward.
Mayfield’s fantasy ceiling is limited by low pass volume, and four games against the strong defenses of the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers within the AFC North. There are plenty of other tough-looking games on the schedule too (Minnesota, Denver, Los Angeles-Chargers, Arizona, New England, Chicago). But there will be some good weeks too, like Week 2 (Houston Texans), Week 9 and 18 (Cincinnati Bengals), Week 11 (Detroit Lions) and Week 15 (Las Vegas Raiders). For fantasy managers who have him on a roster, the trick will be taking advantage of those good weeks.
Beckham’s return should be a good thing for the Browns’ offense overall, and it’s easy to see more coming for Mayfield. But in fantasy terms he’s still only a QB2 for 2021, albeit with a top-10 ceiling for those who want to be optimistic.
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