Stop me if you’ve heard this before, 2020 was a crazy year. No one? Ok, I’ll keep going then. Prior to the kickoff of the NFL season in 2020, we weren’t sure the season would even go on. Luckily, it did and it was quite the ride. Every year you can listen to radio shows, podcasts, or read articles about who to draft and why. There is always some differentiation between analysts and fans but one thing is for sure, no one ever knows who will finish where.
In 2020, three out of the top twelve running backs were drafted as a RB3 or lower. The biggest surprise was James Robinson who finished as the RB7 in PPR formats and was drafted as RB55. Kareem Hunt finished the year as RB10 and was drafted as RB29. Lastly, Mike Davis who wasn’t even drafted finished as RB12. Whether it’s because of an injury or lack of production from a starter, there will always be values found in the later rounds of your draft.
Enough about 2020, let’s begin taking a look at what 2021 has in store for us. I don’t have a crystal ball but I do know there will be surprises this season. These guys I discuss have the ability to find themselves finishing the year as a starting RB (top 24 at the position). Some help will be needed to get there but without further ado….let’s get into it!
AJ Dillon – Green Bay Packers
The first step for Dillon to be a useful fantasy asset was for Jamaal Williams to leave town. He’s now in Detroit so Dillon should slide into the backup role to their superstar, Aaron Jones. With Jones healthy, there isn’t an easy path to being a RB2 in any format. Currently, according to Fantasy Pros, Dillon is being drafted as RB40. He has shown in limited time that he can be a workhorse and feature back should Jones go down for any amount of time. This is a Packers team with limited weapons so Dillon should at least see some third-down work and maybe even goal-line opportunities. He’s a hard runner and may vulture some touchdowns. Make sure you grab Dillon, especially if you have Jones on your roster.
Kenyan Drake – Las Vegas Raiders
Drake finished as RB16 last year in Arizona where he was the lead back. He now finds himself in a new home and in a new role with the Las Vegas Raiders. He is currently being drafted as RB36 and his counterpart, Josh Jacobs is RB20 after finishing in the top 10 a year ago. Let’s be real here, the Raiders don’t have a wide receiver group that you can trust. Waller is their elite pass catcher and that’s about it. Well, Drake was brought in to change that. He will get his share of the carries in an extended season but also plenty of third down work. Carr needs another option since defenses can assume Waller is his one and only true target. Before his first full season in Arizona, Drake had 50 or more receptions in two consecutive seasons. He is a dual-threat running back in a place that welcomes those skills. He doesn’t need Jacobs to go away, he has standalone value that should outperform his ADP.
Gus Edwards – Baltimore Ravens
Edwards finished 2020 as RB37 and is currently being drafted as RB40. The Ravens are a team that can run the ball 600 times in a 17 game season. Yes, Lamar will have his share of carries but there’s plenty to be had for everyone. Ingram departing leaves 72 carries on the table for the backs to pick up. Dobbins will lead the way but Edwards won’t be too far behind. What keeps Edwards from having RB2 potential with a healthy Dobbins is his lack of production in the passing game. If something were to happen to Dobbins, Edwards should take over the lead role. He scored 6 times last year and it’s fair to expect an increase this year. He will have value during bye weeks and should be drafted by any Dobbins manager.
James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals produced two running backs with borderline RB2 numbers or better in 2020. Drake as discussed earlier, is in a new home and in comes Conner. Chase Edmonds is still with the team and I’m not sold he is the lead back here. He’s never carried the ball over 100 times in his career and Conner has done that consistently. There’s injury concern for Conner but when he’s out there, he produces useful fantasy numbers. He is being drafted as RB35 currently while Edmonds is RB27 off the board. That tells you that there is little confidence in Edmonds as the feature. When that happens, the cheaper option is usually the best one to draft.
Conner averages just over seven touchdowns per year over the last three seasons. The lead back of the Cardinals over the same time frame has averaged over eight. He should have the majority of the carries, even with Murray running all over the place. We saw Murray slow down at the end of last year with some injuries so the team should want to protect their franchise quarterback. Conner won’t play a major role in the passing game with Edmonds there but with his rushing totals and ability to find pay dirt, he will outperform his ADP.
Alexander Mattison – Minnesota Vikings
Did I save the best for last? That is to be debated but he certainly is a popular choice. Mattison is being drafted as RB47 and that’s a fair price to pay. If you are in a redraft league, he has to be on your team if you take Cook in the first round of your draft. The Vikings are a run heavy team and will most likely run the ball 500 plus times this year. The problem, Cook gets over 300 of those even missing a couple games.
Mattison has minimal value when Cook is on the field and you can only expect six to eight touches in those games. When Cook is out, and he has missed at least 2 games every year in his career, Mattison slides into the RB1 conversation. In 2020, he had two games with 20 carries and he averaged over 100 yards in those games. His receiving game hasn’t been as solid as Cook’s but he hasn’t had the opportunity. Grab Mattison late in your drafts as insurance and you’ll be glad you did!
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