Derrick Henry O 99.5 -114
Henry has over 100 rushing in his past three games and is showing no signs of slowing down. He will also have to shoulder more of the workload for the Titans’ offense with Ryan Tannehill being out this week. With Henry’s powerful running style and incredible open-field Speed, he can run the ball for long breakaways. He is also able to gain an extra two or three yards when he falls forward after being tackled due to his 6’4” build. With Derrick Henry’s power, speed, and stature that is built more like a tight end than a running back, he should have no problem running for over 100 yards against a Texans defense that allows an average of 164 rushing yards per game.
Zach Ertz O 37.5 receiving yards
Ertz has had over 45 receiving yards in 5 of his 7 games. The only thing that may reduce the amount of targets and therefore his amount of yards is the return of star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins. The Vikings’ defense has given up yards to Tight ends a lot this season giving me even more confidence on this pick. Even with Hopkins coming back Ertz and Kyler Murray have more of a report with each other.
Phillip Walker U 183.5 passing yards
I will say it how it is, this is going to be a terrible game to watch. Two awful teams that are somehow playing to be the number one team in the NFC south. I would feel comfortable taking the under for Walker or for Mariota if you want. Both of the quarterbacks are unlikely to perform well, and both defenses tend to play to the level of their opponents. The only reason I’m choosing Walker’s passing yards as opposed to Mariota’s is because it is about 20 yards more, but I do not think you could go wrong betting either one.
Embed from Getty ImagesJustin Fields O 0.5 int -141
Fields loves throwing the ball to the other team. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns so far this season. This paired with two of the best defensive players in the league, Trevon Diggs and Micah Parsons, lining up on the other side of the ball I would feel comfortable betting at O 1.5 if the odds were +150 or better. Since the payout on this bet are not the best I like parlaying it with his rushing yards of O 47.5 for about +210. I think once he starts feeling the pressure from Parsons and has thrown some bad balls and a pick or two he will try and rely on his legs for yardage. P.S. I couldn’t find a line on interceptions by a player but if you find one for Diggs bet it.
Sam Ehlinger U218.5 passing
This will be Sam Ehlinger’s first game starting as QB in the NFL. Even though he has taken a few snaps at the professional level he has yet to throw a pass in the pros. Even though the Commanders don’t have the best pass defense in the league it should be good enough to keep a quarterback with no pass experience at this level. I also like O .5 interceptions for all of the reasons listed above. I was also able to find a line for his rushing yards at 25.5 I would take the over here. He was a great rushing quarterback at the University of Texas and may be able to take advantage of the lack of film Washington has on him to get some yards with his legs.
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