5 Players to Sell in Dynasty Leagues

Below are 5 SELL HIGH guys that you can look to move before the 2020 season.

If you’re not offering trades in dynasty, you’re not doing it right. Now is the time of the year t

o take advantage of your league mates and pounce on deals that could pay off big time next season.

I will follow this article up with 5 guys to trade for now for my next article. Ready? Let’s jump in!

Sell High

QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens

Before you close out of this article and never read another thing I write, let me say that you should NOT be selling Lamar in Superflex or two QB leagues. I would also like to mention that I like Lamar more than you do. I went back and counted and I played in 28 paid leagues last year, three of which were NFFC Primetime events that I drafted live in Las Vegas and I had Lamar on 18 teams, and 2 of the 3 Primetime leagues. I also placed a bet on him to win MVP last year at 100:1 odds. I think Lamar is amazing and has the most upside of any QB for the next 4-5 years. He set a record for fantasy points per game by a quarterback and outscored the #2 QB (Dak Prescott) by almost 100 points while playing one full game less and getting pulled several times in the 4th quarter due to blowouts. So why are we selling on Lamar? Does anyone think what he did is repeatable? Jackson could be a top 3 QB for the next 5 years and still never repeat those numbers. Quarterback is the easiest position in fantasy to replace since you only start one. Let’s say Jackson averages 25ppg next year instead of 28 in 2019 (still would have been QB 1 last year), 7 other quarterbacks averaged 20 or more ppg in 2019. By adding several early draft picks or a pick and several skilled position players, we can easily make up the 5 point difference plus more.

We also cannot discount the fact that Lamar is a rushing QB. He was great at avoiding big hits for the majority of 2019 but one or two big hits could knock him out of a game or make him less willing to take off and run significantly less than 2019 where he averaged almost 12 attempts per game.

RB Derek Henry, Titans

This one could raise some eyebrows given the season he is coming off of, but Henry is an easy sell high for me. I have seen Henry go as high as the 3rd pick in redraft leagues which is crazy. YES, he is coming off an incredible second half and playoff run in 2019. Yes, he is in an ideal situation in a run-first offense with no competition for touches. However, I do not see much of a reason to think what he did last year is repeatable. Henry is never going to catch passes which is going to drag his value way down in 1/2 and full ppr leagues. Since coming into the league in 2016, Henry has averaged 18.5 targets and 14.5 receptions per season. There have been talks about Henry seeing more work in the passing game and Dion Lewis did just sign with the Giants but I still find it hard to believe Henry will get more work in the passing game. Another thing to note is the departure of Jack Conklin who signed a three-year 42 million dollar deal with Cleveland earlier this month. Conklin has been one of the best run-blocking tackles since coming into the league in 2016.

Do I think Henry is a bad running back? No, definitely not! I think Henry is a very solid rb2 for your team but is seen as a top 5 back in most people’s eyes. If you can get top 4-5 pick in your rookie draft and pair that with a solid veteran like Woods or Bell, I would pounce. In most leagues with less sharp owners, you can get even more!

RB Austin Ekeler, Chargers

I’m going to follow Henry up with another RB that I think is going way too early in redraft leagues, Austin Ekeler. Last year Ekeler played four games without Melvin Gordon, seeing double-digit carries in 3/4 games. Once Gordon returned from his holdout, Ekeler hit that number just once. I wrote yesterday that I believe the Chargers could take Jonathan Taylor in this year’s draft and if that happens, Ekeler will once again be back to a 3rd down back role. Even if it all breaks perfectly and the Chargers don’t draft a running back in the first few rounds or make a trade for one, who’s to say that Justin Jackson won’t get a bulk of the carries. Ekeler has one of the more defined passing roles in the league right now, but he had 8 receiving TDs last year but even with high target volume, that is not a sustainable number.

I think the bigger issue is the departure of Philip Rivers, who just signed with the Indianapolis Colts. Rivers has always been a QB that loves to throw to his running backs (see Danny Woodhead before Ekeler). Tyrod Taylor is the projected week 1 QB and this is really bad news for Ekeler. Taylor is a scrambling QB who will look to take off and run before checking down to his RB. Chargers aren’t void of weapons with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry all vying for targets. The Chargers also project to have a top 5 defense. The majority of Ekelers value lies in his receiving work. If the Chargers are ahead late in games, look for them to want to run the ball more rather than dump the ball off.

WR Mike Evans, Bucs

Mike Evans is great but if we can get a couple of early-mid first-round picks or a first coupled with a 2nd and a solid WR2, I would snap accept. What is Mike Evans’ biggest strength? Deep, downfield targets, something that new Bucs QB hasn’t done much of in recent years. Is this because Brady hasn’t had the weapons to do so? Maybe. Or maybe it’s because Brady has lost some arm strength and can’t make all the throws he use to make. Speaking of Brady, who has been Brady’s go-to receiver in recent years? Yes, Julian Edelman. Chris Godwin is a faster, younger, more talented version of Edelman. Evans averaged slightly more targets a game last year than Godwin. This season I think that will change and we see Godwin lead the team in targets. Despite Arians hating to throw to his tight ends, Brady loves to utilize them. Last year, OJ Howard was getting all the hype but he seems to be forgotten about so far this offseason. If we see an uptick in his targets, which I do see happening, along with Godwin taking over the lead target for Brady, we could easily see Evans production dip to a mid wr2 rather than his current low end wr1 draft price.

We also cannot forget that a Tom Brady offense usually has a running back that is featured in the passing game. Yes, the Bucs have not addressed this position yet, don’t be surprised if they take one early in the draft or try to involve Ronald Jones more who showed flashes in 2019.

TE Zach Ertz, Eagles

Depending on what you can get for Ertz, he is a sell candidate for me. This does not mean I am selling low and taking a weak deal to move him, but for the right price, I would happily trade Ertz. The one place I am not going to be selling him unless someone throws everything but the kitchen sink at me, is in tight-end premium or two te leagues. Ertz will be 29 halfway through the 2020 season and while that’s not old, we are closing in on the age 30 season which is where we start to see most players decline. The other thing to consider is that the Eagles love Goedart and I expect his role to increase again this year. Ertz has been a target hog in Philly but the Eagles will almost certainly be taking a WR early in the draft. Pair that with the fact that they re-signed fan favorite DeSean Jackson, still have Alshon Jeffrey, Miles Sanders will get catches, and the team should get more out of second-year wideout JJ Arcega-Whiteside.

The other thing that probably won’t happen but isn’t out of the question is that the Eagles cut or trade Ertz after the 2020 season to save 8.5m in cap space and hand the full role to Goedert. If this does play out and Ertz goes to a less tight-end friendly system Ertz’s value will decline as he is a volume-dependent te. If we couple all of this together, I like the idea of getting a first-round pick and a young rising TE such as Fant, Hockenson, or even his teammate, Goedert.

 

Before I wrap this up, I will list a few other names that I am actively shopping. Feel free to tweet me if you want a little more analysis on why I’m shopping these guys.

1. DeVante Parker
2. Julian Edelman
3. James Connor
4. Todd Gurley
5. Raheem Mostert
6. Keenan Allen
7. Travis Kelce

 

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