Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (9/12)

Just one long ball on Friday’s list but there were four hitters that scored at least 12 FanDuel points so it wasn’t a total bust. For Tuesday’s 14-game night slate I feel like you must have either Corey Kluber or Clayton Kershaw to take down a GPP so I’m going with some value hitting options to make that happen.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Alex Avila (CHC) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Avila has hit all 14 of his home runs this season against righties with a .220 ISO. He will face Mets’ right-hander Robert Gsellman who has allowed 3.29 HR/9 to left-handed hitters on the road this season.

1B – Hanley Ramirez (BOS) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,600) – Ramirez has a four-game hitting streak and is 3-for-4 with two home runs off lefty Sean Manaea in his career.

2B – Neil Walker (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Walker has hit all 13 of his home runs off righties this season and will face Pirates’ right-hander Gerrit Cole who Walker has gone 4-for-8 with a triple and a homer off in his career.

SS – Corey Seager (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $4,000) – I actually don’t expect Seager to homer on Tuesday but with a $2,600 salary on FanDuel he is just too cheap not to recommend.

3B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,800) – After a few games off due to an illness, Donaldson returned to the lineup yesterday. He has a .418 wOBA and .282 ISO at home versus righties this season and will be at home against right-hander Dylan Bundy.

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mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 9/12OF – Andrew McCutchen (PIT) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,000) – McCutchen smacked a home run last night and has terrorized lefties this season with a .446 wOBA and .362 ISO. He will get a favorable park adjustment playing in Milwaukee against left-hander Brent Suter.

OF – Scott Schebler (CIN) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Schebler has been a favorite of mine recently and tonight is another opportunity to use him. He has clubbed two homers in four career at-bats against Lance Lynn and has a .313 ISO on the road against righties this season.

OF – Matt Kemp (ATL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Kemp has three home runs in his last seven starts and is batting .333 with a pair of homers off Gio Gonzalez in 21 career at-bats.

Longshot – Sean Rodriguez (PIT) (FanDuel: $2,000 / DraftKings: $2,500) – Rodriguez is an excellent cheap power option with a .222 ISO against lefties this season and a favorable park adjustment in Milwaukee.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Corey Kluber ($11,800), Clayton Kershaw ($11,600)
DraftKings – Corey Kluber ($13,300), Clayton Kershaw ($13,000), Eduardo Rodriguez ($6,700)

 

Friday, September 8 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Gary Sanchez 0 16.0
1B Mike Napoli 0 0.0
2B Robinson Cano 0 9.2
3B Jake Lamb 0 18.7
SS Carlos Correa 0 6.2
OF Mookie Betts 1 28.7
OF Nelson Cruz 0 12.2
OF Matt Kemp 0 0.0
Longshot Matt Davidson 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 34 8 23.5% 11.41
1B 39 11 28.2% 12.08
2B 39 9 23.1% 11.94
SS 37 9 24.3% 13.32
3B 38 7 18.4% 10.43
OF 117 31 26.5% 12.98
Longshot 36 4 11.1% 10.37
Total 340 79 23.2% 12.08

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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