For the past six seasons, it’s been clockwork. Antonio Brown has posted at least 101 receptions, 1,284 yards and eight touchdowns each year since 2013. Last year brought a slight drop-off in yards (1,297) compared to 2017 (1,533 yards), but his yards per catch (12.5) was more in line with the rest of his career and his 15 touchdowns led the league.
Brown tried to force his way out of Pittsburgh, and late Saturday night/early Sunday morning he got his wish. Brown is headed to the Oakland Raiders for third and fifth-round picks in April’s draft. On top of that his contract will be reworked with a big chunk of guaranteed money to make him the highest-paid wide receiver in the league.
Brown first became a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in 2013. Since then he’s finished no worse than WR2. He’s also had plenty of talent around him, as well as a Hall of Fame quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, and as now in Oakland significant downgrades are coming across the board.
The most obvious downgrade is under center. Derek Carr looked like an emerging star in 2015-2016, with 60 touchdown passes and 19 interceptions as he averaged nearly 4,000 yards per season. But a broken leg late in that 2016 season was the turning point, and Carr also battled a back issue in 2017. Over that two-season stretch in 2017-2018, he had 41 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions. The bright spots last year were career-highs in yards (4,049) and completion rate (68.9 percent).
Brown will maintain a healthy target share in Oakland, regardless of any further additions in free agency and the draft. Jordy Nelson became Carr’s favorite target late last season, with 38 receptions on 48 targets over the last five games, and Marcell Ateman now becomes the No. 3 wide receiver. Tight end Jared Cook led the Raiders in targets last year (101), but he’s all but sure to be gone in free agency.
Brown will automatically fade from the first-round conversation in fantasy drafts this year, and his very early ADP chart since the start of last week (via Fantasy Football Calculator) looks like Enron’s stock tracker circa 2001.
That being said, Brown is still a WR1 with top-five upside in PPR formats. If Carr can become a more efficient red zone passer, particularly from the 10-yard line in, double-digit touchdowns can’t be ruled out.
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