The Ultimate Guide to March Madness Tournament Facts and Stats

Before we get started I want to issue you a challenge, a Bracket Challenge. If you think you have better picks than some of the ones I give away, I’d love for you to join a Bracket Challenge with me. It is just going to be a free thing so there is no harm if you aren’t too familiar with filling out a bracket. But doing one of these is always a good way to get into the game a little more and have some interaction. In this group, I will encourage people to put their serious bracket in there but if you also want to throw a funny one in that is cool. Note: You must have at least created a bracket to join a group, you don’t need to submit it until the games start on Thursday at noon eastern. 

There are a few ways to do this. If you want to do it in a browser just sign in to your ESPN account and go to this link. Then scroll to the bottom and search ‘KyleTheCommish’ and there should be only one option. 

If you are doing it inside the ESPN Tournament Challenge app (it’s a very good app, highly recommend for filling out the bracket vs browser) there should be a Create/Join Group button on the bracket you want to enter into the group. Click that and there is a search button at the top right. Same thing search ‘KyleTheCommish’. 

If all of this is too confusing there is a way to invite you through email and also a way to invite you through a link. I’ll send those out to anyone that requests one. 

Good luck! If you have any questions, don’t be afraid to ask.

I made one giant 10k word guide of awesomeness for this March Madness Bracket season. This is one of the 5 sections of that mega-article. If you would like to read the beast of an article with all 5 sections, you can click right here. If you would like to view one of the other 4 sections, click on their names: Introducing the 2022 Bracket, Tournament Trends, Finding My Upset(s), Finding My Champion. Either way, thank you for reading this article and I hope you learn something.

Tournament Facts/History

As a preface to this, all of these stats were provided by ESPN Stats & Info either in this article from 2021, this article from 2022, or from the Bracketology show. NONE OF THESE STATS ARE PREDICTIVE. However, I find some of these really important to help keep things in perspective when I am picking my bracket. If I am between two things, I generally will let history break the tie. I will mark the ones I think are important to keep in mind with ***.

Does Seeding Matter? First and Second Round:

• The 6vs11 seeded games are 16-16 since 2013.
• The 7vs10 seeded games are 100-67 all-time in favor of the 7 seed.
• At least one 12 seed has won at least one game in 31 of the last 36 years.
• ***In 8 of the past 11 tourneys (and 26 of the last 36) a 13 seed has upset a 4 seed.
• The past four No. 3s to lose in the first round all came from the Big 12. The 2022 3 seed from the Big 12: Texas Tech.
• Only once since 2011 has a First Four team failed to win a Round of 64 game. The teams playing in the First Four this year are Wyoming vs Indiana (winner vs Saint Mary’s) and Rutgers vs Notre Dame (winner vs Alabama). 
• ***Only once in the past 12 tournaments have the top four seeds in each region survived the first round, and just five times in the past 36 tourneys.

Does Seeding Matter? Sweet 16 & Elite 8: (2021 data updated with 2022 teams)

• ***On average, 9.97 of the top 16 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 each year. In other words, 10 1-4 seeds advance to the Sweet 16. (Data taken prior to the 2021 tournament)
• ***You can expect at least one team seeded 10th or worse to advance to the second week of play. It has happened in 34 of the 36 tournaments — including 13 straight.
• In the First Four era, No. 11 seeds have made eleven Sweet 16 appearances, only two less than all other double-digit seeds combined. Nine out of the last eleven tourneys an 11 seed has made the Sweet 16.
• ***Since 1985, only 5 times has EVERY 2 seed made the Sweet 16.
• Since 1985, the top four seeds in a region have reached the Sweet 16 in only 19 of 144 regions. AKA once every 2 years.
• Only one No. 6 seed has reached the Sweet 16 in the last four tournaments. With regard to the Elite Eight, only four 6-seeds have gotten there in the past 18 tournaments, and just one of them defeated a better seed in the Sweet 16 to get there. USC as a 6 seed made it to the Elite 8 in 2021, but beat a 7 seed to reach that game.
• Only three times have all Elite Eight participants been seeded fourth or better. And in five of the past seven tournaments, we’ve had multiple teams seeded sixth or worse in the Elite Eight.
• Only twice in the past 24 tourneys have we had a Sweet 16 in which all the 2-seeds were still alive.
• ***In 1v4 matchups over the last 5 tournaments, 1 seeds are 9-0.
• In just the past two Sweet 16s, we have seen the lowest total seed count in NCAA tournament history (49 in 2019) and the highest (94 in 2021). Meaning in 2019 we had the least amount of upsets ever and in 2021 we had the most.
• 33 of the last 36 Elite 8’s have featured at least two 1 seeds.

Does Seeding Matter? Final Four + Championship:

• At least one No. 1 seed has reached the Final Four in nine straight tourneys and in 13 of the past 14.
• ***There has been at least one Final Four participant seeded fifth or worse in each of the past 11 tournaments. Additionally, at least one team seeded seventh or worse has reached the Final Four in seven of the past eight tourneys.
• Prior to last season, we have had three consecutive Final Fours involving at least one No. 3 seed.
• The last Final Four appearance by a No. 4 seed came in 2013.
• ***Eleven of the past fourteen champs have been 1 seeds.
• A No. 5 seed has never won the National Championship.
•  18 of 19 national champions have finished top 25 in adjusted offensive AND defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor, Auburn, UCLA, and Houston fit the bill. Kentucky, Villanova, Illinois, UCONN, and Kansas are close and could finish in the top 25.
• In the modern tournament era, only two national champions came from a conference that received fewer than four bids and the last time it happened was 32 years ago. The Pac-12 (Zona, UCLA, USC) and West Coast Conference (Gonzaga, St Marys, San Fran) only got 3 bids in 2022.

Upsets:

• The average number of first-round upsets is 6.1 over the last 35 years. (This stat does not include the 2021 tournament)
• ***On average, half of the upsets in a given year happen in the 1st round.

Random Tidbits:

• There has been one ACC team in the Final Four in 4 of the last 6 tourneys.
• There has been one Big 12 team in the Final Four in each of the last 3 tourneys.
• **Arizona and Auburn are the only teams in this year’s tournament field to be a top-two seed and reside in the top 10 of the AP poll after entering the season unranked. 33 teams have fit this profile before and none have made the Final Four.
• Of the 47 previous teams with losing conference records to get at-large bids since 1985, more than half (24) won a first-round game. However, only six of the 23 won again to reach the Sweet 16. Of the past 20 times, only one won more than one game. TCU, Indiana, Iowa St fit that descriptor.
• No defending champion has reached the Elite 8 since the Gators won back to back 15 years ago. In each of the past four tournaments they were all defeated in the first two rounds.
• Only twice has a No. 4 seed been favored by fewer than three points against a 13-seed in the first round. Both times that team lost straight up. Providence is only favored by 2.5 points over South Dakota St at the time of this writing. On the other end of the spectrum, No. 4 seeds favored by more than 13 points against 13-seeds are 13-0 straight up. UCLA is favored by 14 over Akron at the time of this writing.
• No. 11 seeds favored by two points or more are 7-1 straight up. Michigan is favored by 2.5 over Colorado St at the time of this writing.
• The ACC has had at least one team in the Sweet 16 in the last 36 tournaments.
• The Big 12 had 6 teams in the field in 2019 and had 7 last year plus a Title game participant in both years. Those two title game participants are the only teams from the Big 12 to make it to the Sweet 16 in those years. All other teams were 0-8 in the second round.
• The Big 10 hasn’t won a National Championship since Michigan St did in 2000.
• Conference-USA’s tournament champion has won a first round matchup in March Madness in 5 of the last 6 years. 12th seeded UAB plays Houston this year.
• A team from the MAC has won their first round game in three straight years. 13th seeded Akron faces off against UCLA on Thursday.
• The Missouri Valley Conference has had a winner in 8 of the last 9 seasons. Loyola-Chicago is back again and plays Ohio St in a 7-10 matchup.
• West Coast Conference teams not named Gonzaga have just five wins in the past 25 years. Looking at you St. Mary’s and San Francisco.

Wooden Watch Players (2020 article updated with 2022 players)

• **3 of the past 5 Champions had multiple Wooden Watch players on their team. Purdue and Gonzaga are the only teams that fit this criteria.
• Since 2017, non-1 seeded teams with multiple Wooden Watch players didn’t make it to the Elite 8. Purdue is the only team that fits this description in 2022. Gonzaga is a 1 seed. (This doesn’t feel predictive at all, even if it hasn’t been proved wrong recently.)
• Teams with Wooden Watch players have won on average 2 tournament games from 2017-19.
• Teams with Wooden Watch players in the tournament: Baylor, Illinois, Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin, Purdue (2), Iowa, Villanova, Ohio St, Gonzaga (2), Indiana, UCLA, Ohio St, Arizona, USC, Colorado St, Auburn, Kentucky

Conference Titles mean success in the NCAA Tournament? (2020 article with updated 2022 teams)

• The last team to win both their regular-season conference title, their conference tournament, and then the NCAA Championship was Duke in 2010. Teams in 2022 that won their regular season and conference tournament titles are Arizona, Houston, Gonzaga, and Kansas.
• No team that has gone out of their conference tournament before the semifinals has won the National Championship in 37 years. Notable teams that did not make the semifinals in their conference tournament in 2022: Baylor, Auburn, Texas, Notre Dame, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio St, and Rutgers.
• The Regular Season Champion of the SEC has won 2 games on average the last 5 seasons. Auburn won the SEC regular-season title in 2022.
• The winners of the SEC tournament have won multiple games in the tourney in 4 straight years. Tennessee won the 2022 SEC tournament.
• Three of the past four ACC Regular Season Champions that won their first game in the tournament made it to the Championship game. Virginia last year being the exception. Duke won the 2022 ACC Regular Season title.
• The winner of the PAC-12 tournament has made it to the Sweet 16 in 6 of the past 7 tourneys. Arizona won the PAC-12 tournament in 2022.

More Non-Predictive Stats (2020 article updated with 2022 teams)

• A top-2 seed from the South region has won five of the past six tournaments. Arizona and Villanova are the top 2 seeds from the South in 2022.
• Each of the past five Champions was ranked as a top-2 team in the AP poll the previous year. Teams that fit that description in the tournament field are Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, Duke, and Purdue.

Just Good Advice

Keys to a Good Bracket

There are no obvious tells for what a good upset looks like. But one thing you can look at is the rebounding margin. Teams with more possessions have more chances to score. Math.

Another thing you can do to help your chances of winning your pool is mitigating your risk by picking favorites that rely less on the 3 point shot. If a team is having an off-night and can’t rely on getting easy buckets they may be more likely to feature a scoring slump.

Notable Injuries (*** denotes very important player)

• ***Arizona – Kerr Kriisa, starting PG averages 10 PPG and 5 APG. Hurt in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament against Stanford. Questionable to play going forward.
• Baylor – Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, starting forward averaged 8 PPG and 7 RBPG. Torn ACL on Feb 12 out for the year.
• Baylor – LJ Cryer, starting guard averaged 13.5 PPG. Foot injury on Feb 16 and is out for the year.
• UCONN – Jordan Hawkins, bench guard averaging 6 PPG. Concussion and has been out since March 2nd. Unclear when/if he will return.
• Creighton – Ryan Nembhard, starting guard averaging 11 PPG and 4 APG. Wrist injury on Feb 23 and out for the year.
• ***Houston – Marcus Sasser, starting guard averaging 18 PPG. Got a toe injury in December, returned for 2 games in February but hasn’t returned since. Coach has said he is out for the year, but if they advance far enough there is a chance he plays.
• ***Illinois – Jacob Grandison, starting guard averaging 10 PPG and 4 RBPG. Injured his shoulder on March 3 and did not play in the Big 10 tournament. He is considered day-to-day.
• Indiana – 3 Bench players are injured with questionable designations.
• Memphis – Emoni Bates, starting forward averaging 10 PPG and 4 RBPG. Injured his back in late January and has not returned. His timeline is indefinite and may rest for the NBA draft.
• Michigan St – Tyson Walker, starting guard averaging 8 PPG and 4 APG. Got an ankle injury in the opening minutes of Michigan St’s last game against Purdue in the Big 10 tournament. He did not practice on Monday or Tuesday ahead of Friday’s game against Davidson and is questionable.
• North Carolina – Dawson Garcia, bench forward averaging 9 PPG and 5.5 RBPG. He will not return for the tournament. He hasn’t played since late January for personal reasons.
• Ohio St – Zed Key, bench forward averaging 8 PPG and 5 RBPG. Played in the Big 10 tournament but is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
• ***Ohio St – Kyle Young, starting/bench guard averaging 8 PPG and 5 RBPG. Has been out with a concussion since March 1st. His status going forward is non-linear.
• ***San Francisco – Yauhen Massalski, starting forward averaging 13.5 PPG and 9.5 RBPG. Suffered knee injury in the quarterfinals of the WCC tournament. Did not play in the semifinals against Gonzaga. A timetable is unclear for a return.
• Seton Hall – Bryce Aiken, starting guard averaging 14.5 PPG. Suffered a concussion in the middle of January and has not returned. A timetable is unclear for a return.
• Tennessee – Olivier Nkamhoua, starting/bench forward averaging 8.5 PPG and 5.5 RBPG. Suffered an ankle injury in February and is out for the year.
• Texas – Tre Mitchell, starting/bench center averaging 8.5 PPG and 4 RBPG. Has been out since Feb 12 due to personal reasons.

2021-22 Interesting Stats/Facts by Team

• Top seeded Arizona has a 10-0 run in 28 out of the 34 games that they have played this season. Also they were 26-0 when scoring 80 points. 42.6 points in the paint per game is most among the Power 5 conferences.
• Top seeded Baylor is only 11-6 since starting 15-0
• 3rd seeded Wisconsin averages 8.5 turnovers per game, which is the lowest in the nation.
• 3rd seeded Texas Tech has 1 loss on a Neutral/Home court this year.
• 4th seeded Illinois has only 8 losses. But in 5 of their losses Star player Kofi Cockburn either didn’t play or picked up at least four fouls.
• 4th seeded Arkansas averages 23 free throw att per game, 4th in nation
• 5th seeded Houston is the only team in the history of the NET ranking to be in the top 3 and not a top 2 seed. Also, they only allow a 37.3 FG% on defense, best in the nation
• 5th seeded Conneticuit averages 6.5 blocks per game which is 2nd in the nation
• 5th seeded Saint Mary’s allows only 60.5 PPG
• 6th seeded LSU averages 11.1 steals per game, most in the nation.
• 6th seeded Alabama averages 14 2nd-chance points per game, most among Power 5 schools
• 6th seeded Texas only allows 59.6 points per game, which is 4th lowest in the nation
• 7th seeded Murray St has never made the Sweet 16
• 8th seeded Seton Hall is 18-1 when allowing less than 70 points
• 8th seeded San Diego St averages 57.7 PPG, 2nd lowest in the nation.
• 10th seeded Loyola Chicago allows only 5.8 transition points which is the lowest in the nation. They have also made the Sweet 16 and Final Four in their last 2 tourney appearances.
• 10th seeded Miami has a 10-2 record in road games this season
• 11th seeded Michigan has reached the Sweet 16 in each of their last 4 appearances. They also had the 4th hardest schedule in the nation per ESPN’s BPI.
• First Four team and 12th seeded Wyoming is 13-2 when Graham Ike scores 20+ points. He averages 19.6 PPG.
• 13th seeded South Dakota St is 0-5 in tournament history.

Hottest teams coming into the tourney:

• 3rd seeded Tennessee is 12-1 since February 1st while 14th seeded Longwood has won 19 of their last 20 games
• 4th seeded Arkansas has won 15 of their last 18 games
• 7th seeded Murray St is on a 20 game win streak
• 8th seeded Boise State has won 24 of last 27 games
• 8th seeded San Diego St has won their last 11 games against non-Boise St opponents
• 8th seeded Seton Hall has won 8 of its last 10 games
• 9th seeded Memphis has won 12 of their last 14 games
• 11th seeded Virginia Tech has won 13 of their last 15
• 13th seeded South Dakota St has won 21 games in a row
• 13th seeded Vermont has won 22 of their last 23 games
• 14th seeded Montana State has won 18 of its last 20 games
• 14th seeded Colgate has won 19 of their last 20 games

Who is your Cinderella? Who do you think will cut down the nets? Let me know in the comments or at @KyleTheCommish on Twitter. 

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