Potential disaster befell the Cleveland Browns right out of the gate Sunday afternoon. Lead receiver Odell Beckham Jr. suffered a torn ACL chasing down Bengals corner Darius Philips after picking off Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield. Beckham, a receiver once known for flashy acrobatic catches and big yardage seasons, 1,300 or more in his first three seasons, has seemingly done neither in a Browns uniform. So what is then to be made of both Beckham, as well as the Browns, in both 2020 and beyond?
Turmoil seems to follow the oft-disgruntled Beckham, who after having temperament issues for the New York Giants, was then traded in 2019 to the Browns. Before the current 2020 campaign rumors were flying that a trade was being sought for Beckham from the Browns. The current iteration of the organization is both under a new coach and general manager who seem to have middling allegiance to the old regime’s transactional moves. That being said, four years remaining on a $90 million contract, with a total of $45 million of that still needing to be paid out after the 2020 season leading up to 2024 where Beckham would be an unrestricted free agent. For redraft purposes, Beckham is an easy task, if he is not in keeper consideration he can be released, dynasty though is where he is much trickier. As it stands now seemingly few teams would be lining up to seek out a player coming off ACL surgery whose previous seasonal averages of 1,300 yards, 96 receptions, and 12 touchdowns seem like a fever dream to who would be standing in front of them instead. Beckham has since 2016 only played one season of 13 or more games, has been unable to eclipse 1,055 yards, and has had a touchdown cap of only six. Simply saying, the player he was, is no longer the player he is, and Cleveland would be the odds on favorite to be Beckham’s home come 2021.
What is then to be made of Cleveland, a team that while currently 5-2, has done no favors for the prospect of Beckham as a fantasy asset. After arriving in Cleveland, Beckham was once again northward of 103 targets, it was a fleeting effort though as Beckham had lows in receptions, yards, and catch percentage in any season he suited up for 15 games. The current season brought little hope for a return to form as it was realized early on with current head coach Kevin Stefanski bringing a run-first offense to town. The Browns were not setting the world on fire through the air in 2019, 19th in the league in pass attempts, and 22nd in yards, the current pace projects for worse than that. Cleveland is currently 29th in team pass attempts, 27th in team passing yards, while 5th and 3rd for rush attempts and yards respectively. Having two rushing champion caliber players in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in your backfield, a run-first coach such as Stefanski is running his team exactly how he wants to. Turning our eyes to the previous matchup with Cincinnati, the very game that Beckham went down on the 2nd offensive play for the Browns on the day, we can see how they wish for plans to unfold perfectly.
Losing their top receiver and failing to complete a pass on his first six attempts, both Mayfield and Cleveland as a whole seemed in for a long day. A follow-up effort to bounce back after an embarrassing 38-7 loss to Pittsburgh seemed doomed. Consider everyone surprised as Mayfield completed every single pass then onward in the contest, with a total of five scores on the day and a passer rating of 135.6. So what game plan did Cleveland execute so well for them to succeed as they did? Below is a passing chart from nextgenstats.com, and showcases how the Browns succeeded passing wise.
Controlling Mayfield’s reads made him more comfortable and successful, of his total 28 passes only 11 were further than 10 yards total. Even then when Mayfield was to push downfield, tossing to his left, instead of across his body as he did with the early interception seemed to be a priority. To push the run first agenda, in a game where both teams scored more than 34 points, the Browns selected 29 to 22 pass-run ratio, the Bengals for comparison ran a 48 pass to 21 run ratio. Spreading the ball around, no player having more than six targets, but six players having three or more, could lean into a comfortability for Mayfield. Beckham, while being a dynamic player capable of exploding on the field, also tends to explode off the field. His sort of attitude is hard to stomach for most teams in such a team-oriented game such as football where cohesion equals success. Early in the season, Beckham told the media that he “would probably not post huge numbers this year” knowing how dynamic his backfield was. That seemed to show growth, and then in a massive losing effort in week six Beckham was seen being irritated and walking around without cleats on the Cleveland sideline. There is an old saying “addition by subtraction” not needing to focus on Beckham could help this unit as a whole to keep opposing defenses uncomfortable and limit turnovers. A larger usage of two-tight end sets may be in the cards as well.
In 2019 under Stefanski, via sharpfootballstas.com the Minnesota Vikings had the second-highest percentage of two-tight ends sets at 363 snaps trailing only Philadelphia at 608. Minnesota was also second in two-running back sets(230 snaps), trailing only San Francisco in that formation(332), and second-most in two-running back two-tight end sets(118 snaps) to Baltimore(175).
While Cleveland already stands as fourth in two-tight end sets at around 26% there is the capability for that to increase. If no trade is made of tight end David Njoku the Browns will stand with three capable tight ends led by normal starter Austin Hooper, who will be out until week nine after an appendectomy. He is then platooned by week seven-star Harrison Bryant, who was announced as the starter before game time, and the aforementioned Njoku. Utilizing a larger formation will for sure give an already heavy run unit even more oomph, with the ability for Mayfield to have more short area safe targets to keep his turnover possibilities down.
Turning our attention to a pure fantasy perspective, who stands then to benefit from the Beckham injury? While the run game is sure to continue to flourish, regardless seemingly if Chubb or Hunt is in the backfield, the receiving game is slightly harder to predict. A heavier dose of two-tight end sets seems to be in the works, and Jarvis Landry, while currently nursing a rib injury, should stay on the field seeing 77% of snaps this past Sunday. There is then one spot left open, and only one receiver who saw more snaps than Landry, that receiver being Rashard Higgins. Higgins who has been with the organization for six seasons has yet to see more than 55 targets in a season. There is also rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones whose only receptions this season came in this game. Practice reports will be needed for more information, for what it’s worth ESPN.com currently lists Higgins ahead of Peoples-Jones on the Browns depth chart. Both are worth speculative adds in the deepest leagues or dynasty, but this team’s focus still seems to be square with the run game.
The Cleveland Browns find themselves in an odd spot, while they have lost their most prolific pass option, they haven’t found themselves in this good a record position in decades. With an upcoming schedule through week 12 of their combined opponent’s records being 7-19-1, there is the hope of being a 9-2 team. While their optimism is that Beckham will be returning to Cleveland come 2021, there is enough offensive talent to execute the game plan that has allowed the Browns to be in the position they currently are. Flushing their playoff aspirations down the toilet do not seem to be the path these Browns are on.
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