Welcome back for my preview of this week’s DFS main slate! What an insane week last week was. I felt confident heading in but ended up with an unsuccessful week overall. I mean, who could have predicted how that slate played out? Not me, that is for sure. I played some Mostert but ultimately didn’t play the right stacks around him to produce any meaningful outcome. See the end of this article for a link to my Week 3 article.
After a wild slate last week, we now look ahead to week 4. This is once again a drastically different landscape than last week was heading in. De’von Achane exploded onto the scene last week with 54 DraftKings points, Alvin Kamara is back from suspension, and Mike Williams tore his ACL shaking up the Chargers’ WR room. With that said, let’s tackle this slate and win some money in week 4!
Quarterbacks
Embed from Getty Images- Justin Fields ($6,600) vs. DEN
After three abysmal weeks from Justin Fields, you might be asking why on earth I would pick him for DFS this week. Well, the only team to have a worse week 3 than the Bears was the Broncos. After giving up 70 points last week, Denver is the absolute ideal spot for Fields to bounce back and show us the slate-breaking upside he possesses. If the Bears finally abandon their plan to make Fields a pocket passer, he may dominate this abysmal Broncos’ defense at what should be good ownership given his past performances.
- Brock Purdy ($5,900) vs. ARI
As I looked through this slate, I couldn’t help but feel drawn to the cheaper quarterbacks on the slate. There are a lot of options in the $5k-$6k range, so I chose one that I think will be a little more overlooked by the field. With Deebo trending to be out, that should create a more concentrated 49ers offense. I really like stacking Purdy with Aiyuk this week.
Runningbacks
Embed from Getty Images- Javonte Williams ($5,500) @ CHI
Javonte Williams has been quietly efficient to start the 2023 season. This may have gone unnoticed by many as the Broncos have struggled and Javonte has yet to reach the endzone. Expect that to change vs. Chicago. Chicago’s defense currently gives up the 2nd-most fantasy points to RBs in the NFL. This is a recipe for a huge breakout and with Javonte only being $5,500 he is an absolute smash.
- Alexander Mattison ($5,800) @ CAR
I am again targeting a very weak run defense. Last week, Kenneth Walker was my pick of the week versus this Carolina defense and that was a smash of a pick. With little snap competition and what should be a favorable game script, expect a big performance from Mattison. He should be able to hugely outperform his salary. I’m just hoping he doesn’t end up too highly owned.
Wide Receivers
Embed from Getty Images- Amari Cooper ($6,100) vs. BAL
Cooper is showing he can sustain the success he had last season. Many people will gravitate towards the cheaper Elijah Moore because he and Cooper both had 9 targets last week. But if we look closer, Moore posted an aDOT (Average Dept of Target) of 1.22, compared to Cooper’s 17.88. Not only this, Cooper was robbed of a touchdown when a ref incorrectly called him out of bounds. Cooper is in a great spot here versus a Baltimore secondary that is 25th in fantasy points given up to the WR position.
- Tee Higgins ($6,800) @ TEN
Two weeks ago I picked Higgins coming off an 8 target, 0 reception game. He finished as the WR4 on the week with 8 catches for 89 yards and 2 TDs. Now, I am picking him again after an 8 target, 2 reception game. We have seen Tennessee’s secondary get lit up the first 3 weeks of the season. So anticipate a huge bounce back game from Joe Burrow, and expect Tee Higgins to reap the rewards from it.
Tight Ends
Embed from Getty Images- Dalton Kincaid ($3,200) @ MIA
One of these weeks will be the Dalton Kincaid week! Why not against the Dolphins? In all seriousness, this game is the highest-scoring game of the week and will likely be played heavily by the field. It feels destined to explode and I see Kincaid as a great play to get a lesser-owned piece from this game. At $3,200 he functions as a punt tight end with infinitely more upside than the guys around him.
- Durham Smythe ($3,000) vs. BUF
Are you shocked both my tight end picks are punt plays from the highest total on the slate? After flopping as chalk last week, and the return of Jaylen Waddle, Smythe should see much less ownership this week in a better game environment. At $3,000, the path to Smythe paying off his price tag is easy and he will be in many of my lineups this week.
Defenses
- Houston Texans ($2,900) vs. PIT
Typically, my favorite defenses to pick are the sub-$2,500 defenses that no one wants to play. But this week, the punt defenses look truly awful. So instead, I went with a reasonably priced Texans defense. They have outperformed expectations thus far and they get a favorable matchup versus the struggling Kenny Pickett-led Steelers.
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- Baltimore Ravens ($3,200) @ CLE
In a slight contrarian play, I like the Ravens defense versus Deshaun Watson this week. The field may be more interested in Cleveland’s defense, but I think Watson is the more favorable QB to play a defense against.
Thanks for tuning into my DFS article this week! I hope these picks can help you decipher between some tough choices, and I hope one of you is able to take down a GPP this week! Here’s a link to my article from last week https://goingfor2.com/best-draftkings-week-3-nfl-dfs-advice-9-24-23/. Good luck everybody and feel free to reach out to me on Twitter/X for any DFS or start/sit questions!
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