Be sure to check out any relevant information as this article is written the day before and picks may be subject to change!
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Buffalo was the favorite against the Steelers last week but got upset after the Bills were highly regarded to win. Josh Allen didn’t look like the quarterback we knew from last season after completing 30/51 passes and throwing for only 270 yards and one touchdown while getting sacked 3 times. After throwing the ball so many times only to come short, we can expect the Bills to keep the ball on the ground after Singletary rushed 11 times for 72 yards for 6.6 YPC.
Miami hit the upset against the Patriots last week by a score of 17-16. The battle of the Alabama quarterbacks went in favor of Tua tossing for 202 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 INT while completing 16 out 27 passes. Tua played average and got a lot of help from the defense since the rushing attack was also lackluster.
The Bills get the edge when it comes to QB’s. Although we didn’t get the Allen we saw from week 1, we will likely see improvement as the Steelers defense is vastly underrated and Allen will get a more favorable matchup to connect with Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders. Tua will face a tougher defense so I doubt we see an airshow from Tua.
Buffalo also gets the edge when it comes to the rushing attack as Singletary and Allen put up nearly twice the amount of rushing yards than the Dolphins.
The closest advantage that the Dolphins have is their defense. The Bills defense is better but if the Dolphins defense over performs, then it will give them a shot at the +3.5 cover.
The Bills are the -180 favorite on the money line. The Bills underperformed in their first matchup but expect Allen to return to form and throw for multiple touchdowns. The Bills ML is the play.
Dallas Cowboys at San Deigo Chargers
The Dallas Cowboys almost did the impossible after all the money was on the defending Super Bowl champions to cover. They blew the Bucs cover and almost got the upset win by a stellar performance behind Dak Prescott after coming off an injury. Dak threw for 403 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 INT on 42/58 passing. Solid outing and it appears the injury isn’t affecting Dak.
San Deigo got the 20-16 win against the WFT behind Herberts passing of 337 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 INT on 31/47 passing. Clearly the Chargers are all on in the young QB letting him sling the ball 47 times. They should be confident as Herbert looks to have a bright future.
Normally I would automatically give the running back advantage to Elliot but hasn’t looked like him self lately. He managed just 33 yards on 11 carries compared to Ekelers 57 yards on 15 carries and a touchdown. However, Ekeler is a dual-threat and is actively involved in the passing game despite no receptions last week. Elliot does get his star OL Martin back which should help his YPC. I call this matchup even.
The Chargers have had one the most reliable receivers in the league with Allen for several seasons when he is healthy. He’s a go this week which means he’s a threat despite heavy coverage. He was targeted 13 times for 9 receptions and 100 receiving yards. However, Herbert doesnt always hone in on him and had 4 receivers average over 10 YPR. However, Dak did it better and both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb had over 100 YPR with 7 receivers seeing at least 3 receptions.
The Chargers are -3.0 favorite to cover the spread. The Chargers really only advantage is home field and maybe a slight advantage on defense but not enough to limit Dak. I’m throwing the upset alert on this game and picking the Cowboys to win (+140) and cover the +3.0.
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Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona impressed by throwing up 38 points on the Titans while only allowing 13 points. They played well on both sides of the ball and have set themselves up to be a formidable team behind Kyler Murray and Hopkins. Murray had an excellent season debut going for 289 yards and 4 scores, 1 INT, on 21/32 passing.
Minnesota comes into this game after dropping their the first game against the Bengals in a devasting OT loss. You really can’t blame Cousins since he went for 351 yards, 2 touchdowns and completed 36 out of 49 passes.
The Viking’s run game wasn’t enough to help them win either with Cook getting 20 carries for 61 yards with an average of 3.05 YPC for 1 touchdown and 1 fumble. Edmond’s was able to go for more yards on fewer carries. He had 12 carries for 63 yards. Connor also saw 16 carries and tallied 53 yards. The Cardinals get the edge on the rushing attack due to the dual-threat of Edmonds and Connor.
This matchup should feature a battle of Theilen and Hopkins. Hopkins calls himself the best receiver in the league and it’s easy to see why as he goes for two scores and 83 yards on 6 catches. Theilen is also just as reliable with 92 yards two scores on 9 catches. Kirk is more likely to hit different and more receivers so the Vikings get the advantage despite Hopkins being the best receiver.
Despite taking care of business against a good Titans team, the Cardinals are only the -3.0 favorite to cover. The Cardinals are the better team with more offensive upside. I like the Cardinals to win and they should cover as well.
Honorable Mentions
49ers ML
Raiders +6.5
Chiefs ML
Bengals ML
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